It looks like the books are getting wise to my 2024 MLB spring training betting strategy of only betting the home dogs. We've got a full slate of spring games today, and not a single home team is slated as the underdog.
So, I'm going to take what the sportsbooks are giving us, and bet on the home teams at or near a pick 'em:
MLB Expert Picks: March 13th, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Game 1: Houston Astros vs New York Mets (-111)
Game Time: 6:05 PM ET
The Mets are slight favorites over Houston tonight, but I think they should be much heavier.
The Mets play over a two hour drive away from the Astros, meaning Houston is unlikely to travel a lineup filled with veterans. In terms of the pitching, this matchup looks pretty even — Cristian Javier vs Luis Severino. Javier is certainly the better pitcher on paper, but Severino has a 0.00 ERA in two starts so far this spring, striking out five batters.
Game 2: Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians (-118)
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
For much of the same reasons I'm betting on the Mets, I like the Guardians here.
The Cubs play east of Phoenix in Tempe, while the Guardians play their spring on the far west side of town in Goodyear. It's not the longest drive in the world between the two complexes, but I wouldn't expect the Cubs to send their best players on this road trip.
However, I think this pitching matchup is advantage Cleveland even more than the last bet. Tanner Bibee is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and has a 3.86 ERA in spring so far. The aging Kyle Hendricks hasn't been quite so lucky, rocking a 7.56 ERA thus far. For a low-velocity guy like Hendricks, these first few starts of spring can be a tough slog, and it's showing.
