It's a quiet Thursday in baseball, but that doesn't mean we aren't locked and loaded for some more MLB expert picks.
There are at least two matchups I'm keen on, so let's dive into today's games:
MLB Expert Picks: May 2nd, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Pick 1: Guardians (+110) vs Astros
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
Mitch Bannon's same-game parlay does a good job breaking down this contest, including a note of the Guardians' 18-3 ML record (+15 units profit) when they score at least four runs.
I like Mitch's thinking in pointing out how weak Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti (10.97 ERA) has been. Houston's 'pen is tired, too. But this Guardians offense isn't thriving lately. For example, Josh Naylor, who was on a tear to start the year, now has an OPS below .700 over the last two weeks.
But I've realized that Cleveland employs a death-by-a-thousand-cuts approach on offense that drags down their opponents. Obviously, they are 18-3 when scoring more than four runs because the Guardians' run prevention (especially their bullpen) is elite.
I'm counting on about five or six singles from Cleveland, plus a few extra-base hits to knock guys in. Steven Kwan will be a tremendous hero in this bet. Kwan owns a 1.077 OPS in his last 49 at-bats, and right now, you can bet his OVER 1.5 total bases for -105 odds. That's the play.
Pick 2: Rockies vs Marlins UNDER 7.5 (+100)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 12:10 pm ET
For this contest, we've got Marlins starter Edward Cabrera challenging Rockies opener Peter Lambert, who has yet to work into the fourth inning of a game this year. Cabrera should utilize his elite strikeout rate (over 30%) to neutralize a weak Rockies lineup with only three hitters above a 100 wRC+ vs RHPs.
Cabrera's 5.28 ERA is very deceiving, as the right-hander's xERA is below 3.50, suggesting he's been very unlucky this year. I'm not sure if I'd play Cabrera at UNDER 1.5 earned runs (+100) because he's gone OVER that total in two of three this season, but he looks good these days.
Additionally, the Rockies are 8-7 UNDER in games as road underdogs this year, with six of those UNDERs happening in their last seven games as road 'dogs.
