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MLB Futures Locks & Long-Shots: Who's Your Vladdy?

Ethan Diamandas & Mitch Bannon Published on: Mar 27, 2024 10:40 AM ET

The 2024 MLB season begins Thursday, unlocking a vault of hope, excitement, and lots of futures bets. And with such a big day on the horizon, we summoned our MLB experts (think a chaw-chewing, Walmart version of the Avengers) to formulate some picks.

In this piece, each writer gives their one "lock" for the '24 season and a longshot they're keen on. 

Mitch Bannon's MLB Picks

Follow Mitch on Twitter @MitchBannon.

Best Bet: Spencer Torkelson Over 28.5 Homers (-113)

You may have missed it, but Spencer Torkelson finally broke out last year. He finished the season with an unspectacular 31 homers and .758 OPS, but he really figured something out in the second half.

After the All-Star Break last year, Torkelson posted a .816 OPS with 19 homers in the final 72 games (a 43-homer pace). If he keeps that going for all of 2024, the Tigers slugger will maybe lead the league in homers and certainly beat 28.5.

I also don’t think the pitching Tork will face in the division will be very good. While the Guardians’ staff is solid, the Twins, Royals, and White Sox all ranked in the bottom half of the league in homers allowed last season. Those games against weak pitchers should be more than enough to get Tork over 30 dingers.

Long-Shot: Andres Munoz MLB Saves Leader (+1500)

Andres Munoz has quietly been one of the best relievers in baseball over the last two seasons, and now he gets to be the closer. The flame-throwing righty has only 17 saves in the last two seasons, but 12 of those came after the Mariners traded Paul Sewald at the 2023 trade deadline. Munoz will step into the closer position for the M's, and he’s on track for an easy 30+ saves if he stays in the role.

We’ve seen this Seattle team produce some big-save closers in the past, with Edwin Diaz leading the league in saves in 2018 and Paul Sewald posting 34 last year. Munoz can easily be the next great closer in Seattle.

Andrew Avery's MLB Picks

Follow Andrew on Twitter @chalk_ninja.

Best Bet: Minnesota Twins to Win the AL Central (-115)

While I like what the Detroit Tigers are building, the less-than-stellar American League Central should still belong to the Minnesota Twins in 2024.

The Twins won the division last season thanks to a record of 87-75, and I think you can expect something similar this season. While most shops are offering -115 in futures markets, shopping around might produce a bit more value here.

It’s not even about the Twins being a great ball team at the moment, because I don’t think they are. They’re a good club, sure, mixing some exciting up-and-comers like Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien with some established vets like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, though the former can’t play over 100 games and the latter didn’t exactly “settle in” with the club in 2023, posting a 1.1 fWAR.

The front end of the rotation is great, and Jhoan Duran, who will start the season on the IL, is one of the game’s best closers. The division is thin and filled with wins for Minnesota, considering the competition. It's not the most exciting bet, but gimme the Twinkies in this division.

Long-Shot: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win AL MVP (+2500)

Coming off back-to-back sub-standard seasons, Vladdy can take a positive step in 2024 and potentially replicate his banger 2021 season. There is no chance he posts another 1.0 fWAR season, and if the Jays succeed in 2024, Vlad will post numbers like we know he can.

I honestly like the addition of a savvy, veteran bat like Justin Turner, who could potentially hit behind Vlad, and you’ve got to figure he’ll see pitches with base-hit merchant Bo Bichette hitting in front of him (though an uptick in Bo’s .339 OBP would be welcomed!).

If that 2021 season was the trailer, then 2022 was Chairman of the Board, and 2023 was Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey for the Jays. It’s time for Vladdy to back up those infamous words and get back to producing like we know he can. And if he does, and that leads the Jays to the postseason again, then he’ll be in the running come awards season.

Ethan Diamandas' MLB Picks

Follow Ethan on Twitter @EthanDiamandas.

Best Bet: Matt Olson OVER 42.5 Homers (+130)

The spacious confines of Oakland Coliseum did a good job masking Olson’s power all those years, but the secret is out in Atlanta. The 29-year-old soared to a career-high 54 big flies last year, leading MLB. I’m very surprised the books expect such a regression.

Here’s the key: Baseball Savant tells us that, of his 54 actual homers, 50 were expected home runs, indicating only a small amount of luck. And his blasts traveled a long way, too, with 48% of his homers declared “no-doubters” by Statcast in 2023. 

Olson is a power machine, and his engine will keep chugging in 2024.

Long-Shot: Corbin Caroll To Win NL MVP (+1800)

Carroll was one of baseball’s best hitters last year, ripping 25 home runs and an NL-leading 10 triples, along with 76 RBI and 54 stolen bases. In the end, he finished fifth in NL MVP voting. Watch him take a big step in 2024 — perhaps even a Ronald Acuna-sized step.

Unfortunately, Carroll’s low-barrel, high-contact profile alone won’t win any hardware. The 23-year-old needs to either jack up his stolen-base totals (likely), OBP (unlikely), or power (least likely). Carroll isn’t a muscly hitter, but he’s got some of the best wheels in baseball. With another pitch clock reduction, the D-backs outfield must feast on the basepaths and cross the 60-steal plateau.

If he hits close to .300 and steals more bases – both very possible outcomes – this bet has a strong chance. 

Tony Farmer's MLB Picks

Follow Tony on Twitter @Tonysmarkettips.

Best Bet: Athletics OVER 57.5 wins (-105)

I don’t blame you if you’d rather opt for a root canal than root for the Athletics throughout the entirety of a season, but this win total is too low for a team that figures to have modestly improved from its 50-112 season.

While it’s difficult to find a silver lining in the A’s 2023 campaign, the club really improved after starting the season with a gross 12-46 record. The most dramatic turnaround came from the pitching staff. From the start of the season to June 1, Oakland’s pitchers were a popular topic in sports talk shows for all the wrong reasons after posting a 6.63 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. From August 1 onward, the A’s improved those numbers to 4.85 and 1.52, respectively. Newcomers Alex Wood and Ross Stripling can help stabilize a pitching staff that has already improved.

While there’s no denying the unknowns on this roster, a couple of them should be pleasant surprises, and that’d be enough to get the A’s over this historically low win total of 57.5. Last season, for example, Brent Rooker mashed 30 HR and 20 doubles after entering the season with only 22 extra-base hits in the prior four seasons combined.

Long-shot: Grayson Rodriguez AL Cy Young (+2500)

Grayson Rodriguez finished last season 7-4 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Those numbers are obviously not very impressive, but take a look at what he did from July onward, and you’ll start to see why he’s worth a look at this price.

From July 18 through the end of the regular season, Rodriguez posted a 2.26 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, a 3.6 K/BB rate, and a 0.4 HR/9 rate. To put those numbers in perspective, that ERA, WHIP, and K/BB rate all fell somewhere between the season-long totals for last year’s AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole and NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, while that HR/9 rate was superior to both winners. On top of that, Rodriguez made eight of his final 12 starts of the regular season vs. teams that finished in the top 13 in MLB’s batting average rankings.

At 24 years old, it’s not hard to imagine Rodriguez improving on last year’s second-half success. The Orioles project to once again have an impressive lineup, which means Rodriguez should get plenty of run support for a team with serious World Series potential. As Snell and Cole reminded us last season, leading a team to an impressive playoff run isn’t a prerequisite for the award, but if Rodriguez shows up as the best pitcher in a talented rotation on a playoff team, those optics will be hard for voters to ignore.

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