I whiffed on both my MLB homer props last night, but I've got some good picks to get back on track tonight.
I've got a pair of homer picks for tonight's games, including one mega long-shot I actually feel pretty good about. Follow along for my two home run prop bets for April 16th:
Pick 1: Manny Machado To Homer (+380)
Padres vs Brewers Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:40 pm ET
Wade Miley can give up a homer or two. Playing in the homer-happy Brewers home park, Miley has allowed a strikeout per nine innings over the last three seasons, including 1.2 per nine last year. He's yet to allow a dinger in 2024, but I think that ends tonight. Miley faces a Padres lineup he hasn't had much success against, including a tough matchup against Machado.
Manny has five hits in 16 career at-bats against Miley, including two bombs. Machado has something on Miley because he simply doesn't swing-and-miss against the lefty. The Padres infielder has six walks to no strikeout in his career against Miley.
Machado is also quite hot right now. The 31-year-old has 10 hits in his last six games, including two homers.
Pick 2: Miguel Rojas To Homer (+950)
Nationals vs Dodgers Matchup Preview - Game Time: 10:10 pm ET
Miguel Rojas isn't known as a homer hitter. But, there's something about facing Nationals starter Patrick Corbin that has him digging the long ball. In 35 career at-bats against Corbin, Rojas has three homers and 15 total hits. The Dodgers infielder clearly sees the ball well out of Corbins' hand, as Rojas has six walks to just one strikeout from the lefty.
Corvin has only given up two homers in three starts this year, but when you're giving me nearly +1000 on a guy like Rojas, with the record he has against Corbin, I'll take it.
