Baseball games are too long, so that's why we've got YRFI/NRFI picks (Yes/No Run First Inning). Why wait all nine innings when you can your MLB fix in a mere six outs?
Here are my two Y/NRFI bets for Wednesday, May 8:
Pick 1: Mariners vs Twins: No Run First Inning (-150)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:40 pm ET
Damn. The sportsbooks caught up to us on this one. The -150 odds aren't ideal, but I'm confident in a NRFI bet Wednesday.
The Mariners offer a strong baseline for minimal first-inning offense. Seattle is the best NRFI club (25-11) in baseball, cashing at a 69% clip. Nice. But that's only where the thread begins. George Kirby, one of the M's elite pitchers, is 5-2 NRFI in his seven starts this year. Twins starter Chris Paddack is slightly less reliable at 3-3 NRFI, though that's not a problem.
I'm not worried about Paddack because the Mariners often struggle to score in the first (hence their top-dog status). And I have infinite faith in Kirby Wednesday, especially against a Minnesota offense that is 26th in MLB with a .597 OPS in the first inning.
It's a miracle the Twins are somehow 18-17 YRFI this season. This is a great opportunity to bet on zero runs in the first.
Pick 2: Rockies vs Giants: Yes Run First Inning (-120)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 8:40 pm ET
While I don't love taking a one-sided approach to these bets, Wednesday's Giants-Rockies game offers a good chance at a first-inning run... but only on the Rockies' end.
What do I mean? Well, Jordan Hicks starts for the Giants, and he's been elite this year (1.69 ERA). Naturally, his dominance carries into the first frame, where San Fran is 6-1 NRFI in games he starts. Hicks holds up his end of the bargain. We can pray on his downfall Wednesday but don't count on the Rockies breaking through.
We need the Giants bats to show up. That's been a big ask this year, but the boys will have help. Objectively, the club has been better in the first inning, generating a .653 OPS over the last seven days.
Our real ringer is Peter Lambert, the Rockies starter. He's a hard-contact machine, 2-0 YRFI, and an early game choke artist. His 9.00 ERA in the first inning breathes all the life we need into this bet.
