We’re back with another look down the historical rabbit hole.
After breaking down the 2005 top prospect list last week, I’m skipping forward a few years for another edition of Boom or Bust. Over a decade removed from this 2010 class, we can say with certainty there were at least a few future Hall of Famers climbing minor league systems that year.
When it comes to 2010’s Top 10 prospects, there’s some wild variance, from MLB MVPs to big-time flops. If you want a future stars list that embodies just how fickle prospect development is in Major League Baseball, look no further than this year:
1. OF Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves, Career War: 40.7)
Jason Heyward is.... good. The 2008 first-round pick broke into the big leagues in 2010 and immediately earned an All-Star Appearance, MVP votes, and came second in Rookie of the Year voting. Over his first five seasons, he seemed to be meeting these top prospect expectations, hitting 20 homers a year, posting a 14 percent better than average OPS, and winning three Gold Gloves in a corner outfield spot.
But after those first five seasons, Heyward's career numbers took a bit of a turn. He may have single-handily won the Cubs the 2016 World Series with an epic rain delay speech during Game 7, but during his seven years with the Cubs (and on a $184 million contract) he hit just .245 and had over 11 home runs in a season just once. We can't fully close the career book on Heyward yet, as he’s still chipping away on some seasons with the Dodgers. But, overall, his numbers are pretty average for a former top prospect.
10:55 PM: The rain came down. The tarp came on. 🌧
— Cubs Talk (@NBCSCubs) November 3, 2019
Jason Heyward gave his speech in the weight room. 💪 pic.twitter.com/8W0yxEPKp5
2. SP Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals, 30.9)
If evaluating Heyward’s career is tough, Strasburg’s might be even harder. His peaks are as high as they come in baseball. The highly touted hurler led the league in strikeouts, innings pitched, wins, earned Cy Young votes three times, and won the World Series MVPs. But his low points, which are all due to a myriad of injuries, are as low as they come. The righty always struggled with health, but in the last three seasons he's pitched just 30 MLB innings and has made a real impact since winning the title in 2019.
Even as he's basically retired with 247 career starts across 13 years, Strasburg's career should be considered a resounding success, even with this top prospect hype. But, he's also an embodiment of why pitchers so rarely find themselves on these Top 10 lists, with injury risk so high.
3. OF/DH Giancarlo Stanton (Florida Marlins, 44.0)
Known as Mike back in 2010, Stanton has certainly delivered on his prospect hype. A 2010 scouting report graded him with a maximum power grade (80/80) and said "pop never has been an issue." Boy was that scout right.
| Year | Age | WAR | BA | OPS | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 (MIA) | 27 | 7.9 | .281 | 1.007 | 59 | 132 |
| 2014 (MIA) | 24 | 6.5 | .288 | .950 | 37 | 105 |
| 2012 (MIA) | 22 | 5.4 | .290 | .969 | 37 | 86 |
| 2018 (NYY) | 28 | 4.4 | .266 | .852 | 38 | 100 |
| 2011 (MIA) | 21 | 4.1 | .262 | .893 | 34 | 87 |
Though Yankees fans sometimes take exception to his strikeouts and injuries, Stanton has won an MVP, led the league in homers twice, and has been a 41 percent better than average hitter over his 13 and counting years. Unless Stanton retires early, he'll have made over $300 million, has a realistic shot to surpass 500 career homers, and could break the top-20 list in all-time career dingers.
4. C/1B/DH Jesus Montero (New York Yankees, -0.3)
After three players with lengthy big-league careers, we’ve finally hit our first flop. You probably recognize the name, because Montero was a hyped Yankees prospect or because he bounced around Triple A teams until 2017. But, this DH/C played just five MLB seasons, hit only 28 career homers, and posted a negative career WAR. (Yikes)
Prospect evaluators saw Montero as a nearly sure thing, calling him "one of the more accomplished right-handed hitting prospects to come around in years." Despite not breaking into the big leagues in 2010, Montero even moved up this prospect list the next year, sitting behind only Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.
What doomed Montero was that final jump. His Triple-A numbers were always great, but in MLB he didn't hit enough (.253 batting average) or walk enough (5.6% walk rate), and never translated enough power to make up for the on-base struggles.
5. SP/RP Brian Matusz (Baltimore Orioles, 2.1)
A 6' 5" lefty with four pitches and pristine minor league numbers? Only the Orioles' pitching development of the 2010s could mess this one up.
Just like Jake Arrieta, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, and others, this highly regarded Baltimore pitching prospect just never made it big with the O’s. During his first taste of the big leagues Matusz looked great, posting a 4.30 ERA and 4.05 FIP in his first full season. But after injuries and zapped velocity sidetracked his next few years, the southpaw found himself eating innings in the Baltimore bullpen and finished an eight-year career with an ERA close to five.
6. OF Desmond Jennings (Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 13.4)
Jennings had all the tools. In the 2009 season, he hit .318 with 52 stolen bases, 10 triples, and great centerfield defense in the Double- and Triple-A.
The speed and defense translated to the big leagues, but the bat just never fully came with it. Jennings still managed to steal 20 bases three times during his seven-year career, and posted a league average slash line of .245/.322/.393. The Alabama native was a useful player, but a lack of power and the emergence of young outfielders like Wil Myers, Kevin Kiermaier, and Steven Souza in Tampa pushed him out of a regular role.
7. C/1B Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants, 44.8)
Buster Posey is the best catcher of his generation. A seven-time All Star, three-time World Series winner, NL MVP, Rookie of the Year, and leader of men. Posey was the catching position for most of his career and has a pretty good chance to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in a few years after retiring on top after 2021.
Looking back, Posey is the best player to come from this Top 10 list. As a prospect he was rightfully compared to Joe Mauer and a lauded athlete, but the only thing that prevented him from ranking even higher on this list were questions about his ability to receive pitches behind the plate. He certainly answered those.
8. 3B/1B/DH Pedro Alvarez (Pittsburgh Pirates, 5.0)
Go look, Alvarez had a better career than you probably thought. This second overall pick played nine seasons, finished as an above average hitter, and led the NL in homers back in 2013. Sure his -7.3 defensive WAR certainly taints the offensive success, but Alvarez's power translated to the big leagues for almost a decade.
It’s easy to see why Alvarez was a top-10 prospect, with the 80-grade pop. But the other tools never developed enough to really round out his game.
Game-winning Grand Slam in the 14th? Yeah that'll do, Pedro Alvarez.
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 7, 2018
via @Orioles pic.twitter.com/T4HYUN6hVY
9. RP Neftali Feliz (Texas Rangers, 7.3)
Feliz came out firing, winning the 2010 Rookie of the Year award by posting 40 saves and a 2.73 ERA in his first year. The Dominican also became the second youngest player ever to record a save in the World Series that year, but didn't get his ring when the Rangers lost to the Giants in five games.
The righty never quite matched those rookie heights, but Felix stuck around as an MLB reliever for 10 seasons, pitching for seven teams and retiring with 107 career saves.
10. C/1B/DH Carlos Santana (Cleveland Indians, 35.5)
Carlos Santana broke into baseball at the perfect time. He had decent power, an okay hit tool, and wasn't long for the catching position. But Santana was, and still is, elite at taking his walks.
As baseball teams began to value walks and prioritize OBP in the early 2000s, Santana's .359 career on-base percentage and elite patience were rightfully appreciated as he made the majors. With six stops (and counting) under his MLB career belt, the current free agent has received MVP votes twice in his career and could crack the top 50 in career walks when all is said and done.
Biggest Bust: Jesus Montero (3rd)
Biggest Breakout: Buster Posey (7th)
Should’ve Been On The List: Mike Trout (85th)
All stats and WAR calculations are taken from Baseball Reference.
