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NBA Free Agency Odds

Can you smell it in the air? It’s the time of the year when NBA general managers frantically work the phones and wave around their wallets to overpay for free agents! With the NBA’s free agency period getting underway on July 1, we have the odds on where the biggest free agents could potentially go.

Kevin Durant

At Bovada, Kevin Durant has a -500 shot of returning to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Golden State Warriors (+400), Miami Heat (+1200), New York Knicks (+1400), San Antonio Spurs (+1600) and Boston Celtics (+1600) are also in the KD sweepstakes.

Despite getting a meeting with the highly sought-after Durant, the Los Angeles Clippers are further down the list at +5000. The L.A. Lakers (+6600) and Washington Wizards (+10000) are also available to bet on, but it would take a small miracle for Durant to leave the talented Thunder for either of those clubs.

We asked Bodog's sportsbook manager Adam Burns what the likely line moves would look like with a potential Durant signing and he estimated the following:

  • Warriors: 2-1 to 10-11
  • Heat: 33-1 to 5-1
  • Celtics: 25-1 to 5-1
  • Knicks: 75-1 to 5-1

DeMar DeRozan

Elsewhere, DeMar DeRozan’s chances of returning to the Toronto Raptors come in at a staggeringly-high -1500. If DeRozan signs with any other NBA club, bettors can find some great value at +700.

DeRozan has stated he will exclusively talk to the Raptors before meeting with any other franchises. The shooting guard made it public that he will do everything in his power to stay with the only team he’s ever known, and the Raps seem intent on keeping the two-time All-Star.

Dwight Howard

Remember when I mentioned overpaying? Wait a second…BAH GAWD! THAT’S DWIGHT HOWARD’S MUSIC!

Fresh off his forgettable tenure with the Houston Rockets, Howard is clearly past his prime at the age of 30. The big man still has a nice scoring touch around the rim, but he’s severely regressed defensively over the last few years and hasn’t done anything to improve his negative image around the league.

The Boston Celtics are even money to sign Howard, with the Atlanta Hawks (+175), Rockets (+1200) and any other team (+175) also listed. Howard’s odds of going back to Houston may look appealing at that price, but it’s highly unlikely a reunion with James Harden would happen.

The Celtics currently have Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk at the five spot, so Howard would provide them with a decent boost. The two sides already have a face-to-face meeting scheduled, per ESPN.

Which team will sign Dwight Howard?

Odds as of June 29 at Bovada

  • Boston Celtics EVEN
  • Atlanta Hawks +175
  • Houston Rockets +1200
  • Any other team +175
Which team will sign DeMar DeRozan?

Odds as of June 29 at Bovada

  • Toronto Raptors -1500
  • Any other team +700
Which team will sign Kevin Durant?

Odds as of June 29 at Bovada

  • Oklahoma City Thunder -500
  • Golden State Warriors +400
  • Miami Heat +1200
  • New York Knicks +1400
  • San Antonio Spurs +1600
  • Boston Celtics +1600
  • Los Angeles Clippers +5000
  • Los Angeles Lakers +6600
  • Washington Wizards +10000

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