After a tough start to the first bucket picks campaign, I'm back with a few more NBA First Basket Scorer bets for the February 15th slate.
Below, I'll break down a few of my picks for NBA First Basket Scorer odds for tonight's games, with lines from some top sportsbooks:
Jump To Picks:
First Basket Scorer Picks Record:
| Record | Unit Profit |
|---|---|
| 0-2 | -2.0 |
Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies
The Game: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 p.m. ET
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +270 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | +500 |
| Luke Kennard | +700 |
| Malik Beasley | +750 |
| Damian Lillard | +800 |
| Santi Aldama | +800 |
| Brook Lopez | +860 |
| Vince Williams Jr. | +950 |
Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. (+500)
Giannis is arguably the best player in the league, so oddsmakers have him at the top of these first scorer odds. But, when it comes to early buckets, Jaren Jackson is the guy.
JJJ leads all players on tonight's NBA card with 12 successful first basket makes this season, scoring the first bucket in 24% of the games he's started. He gets plenty of opportunity to cash an early score, because his Timberwolves win the tip nearly 70% of the time. Jackson Jr. gets off the first shot of a game 30% of the time, that's 22% MORE than Giannis. At +500, this is incredible value, as Jackson Jr. should be the favorite.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Trail Blazers
The Game: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Portland Trail Blazers, 10:00 p.m. ET
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Karly-Anthony Towns | +475 |
| Jerami Grant | +475 |
| DeAndre Ayton | +500 |
| Rudy Gobert | +550 |
| Anthony Edwards | +650 |
| Anfernee Simons | +650 |
| Jaden McDaniels | +750 |
Pick: DeAndre Ayton (+500)
DeAndre Ayton has been criticized for his play with Portland this year, but he can't be chirped for not scoring early. The Trail Blazers big man scores first in 20.6% of the games he starts. The issue is he's only started 34 games this season, so that's just seven first buckets total. Lucky for you, Ayton is nearly certain to be in the Blazers starting lineup tonight, as he's started 12 of Portland's last 13 games since late January.
Deandre Ayton last night vs the #1 defense:
— AytonMuse (@AytonMuse) February 14, 2024
▫️22 points
▫️16 rebounds
▫️1 assist
▫️91.7 FG%
Max player btw pic.twitter.com/2LE2w0kOeT
He's also on a bit of a scoring streak in that time, too, posting over 20 points in five of his last eight contests. Getting Ayton as the third-lowest odds on this board is a steal.
What Are First Field Goal Bets?
First Field Goal props or First Basket Scorer bets are pretty simple: pick the player who will score the first field goal of the contest. The only thing you have to remember is that free throws do not count as field goals, so if your pick gets fouled and scores from the line, the bet hasn't yet cashed.
Here's an example of how a First Basket Scorer market may look for a hypothetical Lakers vs Bucks game:
- Anthony Davis +450
- LeBron James +500
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +550
- Damian Lillard +600
Davis is the favorite at +450 and his odds mean a $100 bet would pay out $450 in profit. However, if you want to back one of the better value picks like Lillard, you could get $600 back on a $100 bet with his +600 odds. Betting this market is all about comparing first basket likelihood and line value.
