As Joel Embiid laid on the hardwood clenching his left knee in pain during a game against the Golden State Warriors on Jan. 30, the thoughts of many immediately went to a new rule instated by the NBA which likely forced the reigning Most Valuable Player to compete that night against better judgement.
The Philadelphia 76ers superstar recently underwent an MRI which revealed an injured lateral meniscus which could keep him out of action through at least the All-Star break, although no timetable has been given by the franchise at this time.
The injury occurred when Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga landed directly on Embiid's knee as the two scrambled for a loose ball. Philadelphia trailed by 12 points at the time with just over four minutes remaining. Embiid had missed the prior two games against the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers dealing with knee soreness, as well.
Joel Embiid is headed to the locker room after Jonathan Kuminga fell on him
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 31, 2024
Hope he's ok 🙏 pic.twitter.com/iZysg8pULR
How Embiid's Injury Impacts MVP Odds
Prior to getting hurt, Embiid's odds to become a back-to-back winner of the Michael Jordan trophy were incredibly strong. It's been a three-player race between Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the better part of the campaign, but Embiid was frequently at the forefront of the debate with odds which got as low as +120.
Embiid leads the Association in scoring at 35.3 points per game, ranks seventh in rebounding (11.3 boards), 11th in blocks (1.8), eighth in double-doubles (27), and has scored 30 or more points in all but six games.
Now that he's slated to miss what could be an extended period of time, Embiid has dropped out of the conversation completely, and that's in large part due to the league's new rule pertaining to end-of-season hardware courtesy of the collective bargaining agreement.
| Player | Team | Jan. 19 Odds | Player | Team | Feb. 2 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | +240 | Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | -140 |
| Joel Embiid | Philadelphia 76ers | +260 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | +270 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | +300 | Luka Doncic | Dallas Mavericks | +650 |
| Luka Doncic | Dallas Mavericks | +700 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | +800 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | +800 | Jayson Tatum | Boston Celtics | +5000 |
| Jayson Tatum | Boston Celtics | +2900 | Jalen Brunson | New York Knicks | +5000 |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | +5000 | Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | +10000 |
| Kevin Durant | Phoenix Suns | +7500 | Kevin Durant | Phoenix Suns | +15000 |
| De'Aaron Fox | Sacramento Kings | +7500 | Kawhi Leonard | Los Angeles Clippers | +15000 |
What is the 65-game rule?
In an attempt to curb load management for the 2023-24 season and beyond, the NBA instituted a rule which requires players to meet one of the following two criteria to be eligible for MVP, an All-NBA team, Defensive Player of the Year, an All-Defensive team, or Most Improved Player (via ESPN's Bobby Marks):
- The player played in at least 65 regular-season games for at least 20 minutes per game
- The player played in at least 62 regular-season games, suffered a season-ending injury and played in at least 85 percent of the regular-season games played by his team prior to the player suffering said injury
There are protections in place should a player come close to meeting the criteria but fall short, such as failing to play the appropriate amount of minutes or bad-faith circumstances.
Why the 65-game rule is problematic
The online consensus once Embiid was ruled out fairly late prior to tip-off against the Nuggets on Jan. 27 was that the 7-footer was ducking the challenge of battling a fellow MVP candidate and past winner in Jokic on his home floor. It didn't matter at all if Embiid was hurt or not, because the public image of him being in street clothes for a highly-anticipated game was all anyone was concerned with.
Embiid has played in 34 of a possible 47 games, and with Philadelphia having seven more games on its schedule before the All-Star break commences, logic would suggest even before the Sixers finalize a treatment plan that the 65-game quota simply won't be met.
Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James took to social media on Friday afternoon to defend Embiid from the onslaught of criticism he initially received for missing games.
Where are all the media outlets, tv media personalities, hot takes that talked so much 💩 about Joel Embiid about missing those games when he knew what he was dealing with.
— LeBron James (@KingJames) February 2, 2024
Now he’s out with an injury because of it. Not 1 person has went back on tv or their dumbass podcast and apologized to that MAN!! No accountability 🗑️🗑️🗑️
— LeBron James (@KingJames) February 2, 2024
The 65-game rule can also have a massive impact on a player's earnings, as well. Take Indiana Pacers All-Star Tyrese Haliburton for example, who could cost himself as much as $41 million if he becomes ineligible for an All-NBA team spot. His contract extension inked last summer starts at 25 percent of the Pacers' salary cap in 2024-25 if he doesn't make the team, but if he does, that number rises to 30 percent of the cap.
“I think it’s a stupid rule, like plenty of the guys in the league, but this is what the owners want, so as players, we gotta do our job and play in 65 games if we’re able to,” Haliburton said, according to The Athletic's James Boyd. “So, that’s what I gotta do, take care of my body to be able to play in those games, and I think you’re seeing other players in the league kind of face the same thing. As long as the owners are happy.”
Draymond Green has criticized the NBA for implementing what he calls a "bullsh*t" 65-game rule.
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) January 31, 2024
"Now we got one of the premier faces of this league possibly hurt because he's forcing it."
(Via @TheVolumeSports )
pic.twitter.com/pAfXTc9xm0
The pressure for Embiid to suit up simply to keep his name alive in MVP conversations was immense, and perhaps even on a personal level as he looked to pull off a rare back-to-back win. Fluke injuries occur constantly, and there's no way of knowing if and when they'll occur. An argument can be made that Embiid shouldn't have been playing in a game which was all but wrapped up, but debating that is ultimately pointless.
The bottom line is that Embiid's MVP aspirations, as mighty as they once were, have likely gone up in smoke due to his latest ailment. He continued to push his nagging knees to their breaking point, and an untimely fall compounded by another player landing on him was the straw which broke the camel's back.
The NBA is a better place when Embiid is healthy. Philadelphia is also an entirely different team when he's available, going 26-8 with him as opposed to 4-9 without. Nothing is forever set in stone, and there can always be adjustments to the 65-game rule to better suit the players, owners, and the league itself down the road.
For now, questioning its existence and poking holes in its execution is both valid and neccessary.
