Heat seek a series tie with the Spurs
The Miami Heat find themselves down 2-1 in the NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs as they prepare to hit the hardwood as betting underdogs in Game 4 on Thursday night.
They might end up as favorites if Tony Parker can't go with a seriously strained hamstring. The Spurs point guard is day-to-day and didn't sound too convincing at a press conference Wednesday.
If he can't go, Kevin Bradley of Bovada sportsbook estimated the line could swing. "I figure he is worth three or four points," he said early Thursday.
The Spurs trounced the Heat 113-77 as a 2-point home favorite on the NBA betting lines in Game 3 of the best-of-seven set on Tuesday night, with Danny Green scoring a team-high 27 points.
LeBron James was held to just 15 points in the loss for Miami and he promised a better performance, one that would put the team on his shoulders if needed for Game 4.
The betting consensus here at OddsShark was split right down the middle as of Thursday morning and he line had moved from -2 to -1 in early wagering.
The Spurs sport records of 58-24 and 39-41-2 ATS heading into this matchup, while the Heat sit at 66-16 and 46-36 ATS on the season. The OVER/UNDER records are 36-45-1 for the Spurs and 43-39 for the Heat. (Note: follow us on Twitter for line updates and injuries news).
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Power Rankings at Odds Shark have the No. 6-rated Heat taking on the No. 3-rated Spurs in this contest. Computer models indicate a possible 107-106 win for the Heat on Thursday.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits San Antonio's No. 4-ranked offense, averaging 103 PPG, against a Heat defense that ranks No. 5 at 95 PPG. The Spurs field goal percentage has averaged 48.1% so far, less than the Heat shooters have achieved on the year, 49.6% per game.
In comparing how the teams stack up statistically, the Heat own the league's No. 3-rated mark, allowing 94.4 points per game when playing on the road. San Antonio, on the other hand, rates No. 5 in scoring on their home court.
Miami lost its last outing, a 113-77 result against the Spurs on June 11. The Heat failed to cover in that game as a 2-point underdog, while the 190 combined points took the game OVER the total. Miami was run off the court by the Spurs on Tuesday as San Antonio blasted them 113-77 at AT&T Center.
Miami Heat Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing San Antonio are 6-4
After playing San Antonio are 3-7
After a loss are 10-0
San Antonio Spurs Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Miami are 9-1
After playing Miami are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few Heat at Spurs trends to consider:
Miami is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 13 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Miami's last 25 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
San Antonio is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
San Antonio is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games at home
Miami at San Antonio, Sunday, June 16
San Antonio home to Miami, Sunday, June 16