We're almost there folks, conference tournaments officially get under way this week. There's less than a fortnight until the big dance begins. We're on the home stretch of the NCAAB season. Early March is an ideal time to build the bankroll, before the Madness. Thankfully, we've got a few of the best teams in college basketball to wager on tonight.
Here are my three college basketball expert picks of the day:
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Pick 1: Duke -6.5 vs NC State
Matchup: Duke vs NC State
The Wolfpack will be howling in agony come Monday night.
Led by the high-rise that is Kyle Filipowski, who's miraculously not injured after a court storming incident last week, Duke are one of the finest teams in the nation. Most importantly, the Blue Devils have been a hit for bettors. Jon Scheyer's team have been outstanding at cashing those tickets, going 23-4 SU and 16-9-1 ATS.
The Blue Devils excel at scoring in the paint taking nearly 35 attempts from inside per game. They're also one of the top shooting teams from the outside cashing on 41% of three-point attempts.
Getting straight to it. Kyle Filipowski started the Duke season off with:
— SLAM University (@slam_university) November 7, 2023
😈 25 PTS
😈 10-12 FG
😈 7 REB
😈 1 BLK@DukeMBB @kylefilipowski pic.twitter.com/z2ONYUisYV
Duke seems to have rebounded since a tight loss to the rival North Carolina Tar Heels. The Blue Devils have gone 7-1 both SU and ATS in their last 8 contests. Moreover, their average scoring differential of 13.5 sits 10th in the nation. NC State is a decent basketball team, but they're not nearly on the same level as Duke. The Wolfpack are 72nd nationally in offensive efficiency and 70th in defensive efficiency. There are very few paths to victory for NC State on Monday night.
It's tough to envision the team taking their foot off the gas in their last tune up before a crucial ACC clash against UNC on Saturday. Duke is quickly becoming a National Championship darkhorse and will look to keep the momentum rolling on Monday night. Bet on the Blue Devils to cover the spread.
Pick 2: Baylor -7 vs Texas
Matchup: Baylor vs Texas
An intriguing Big 12 rematch is the other highlight of college basketball tonight. Texas stole the game with a two-point win over Baylor last month.
However, that's unlikely to happen again, as the Bears are scorching hot at just the right time. Baylor have both won and covered the spread in three straight games as favorites. Crucially, the Bears are a phenomenal 14-6-1 ATS as favorites this season.
Ja'Kobe Walter last 5 games on-ball scoring flashes pic.twitter.com/FXybkX9eot
— 🎞️ (@TrellInterlude) January 14, 2024
They're a dominant 14-2 at home, while the Longhorns are just 4-5 on the road. Baylor has six players averaging in double figures, and employ far better shooters than Texas. In fact, the Bears shoot nearly 50% from the field, and over 40% from three. They rank higher in both transition points scored and second-chance opportunities.
Most times, games between elite teams in basketball come down to who has the better closer in late-game situations. Baylor employs top-5 NBA Draft talent Ja'Kobe Walter, and Texas simply doesn't have a defender who can stop him. Add Baylor to your NCAAB betting picks.
Pick 3: Eastern Washington -8 vs Sacramento State
Matchup: Eastern Washington vs Sacramento State
We're travelling to Big Sky country for our third college basketball expert pick of the night. All due respect to Sacramento State, but the Hornets are one of the worst teams in college hoops this season.
Sacramento State is just 8-22 on the year, and are shooting under 42% from the field. They're on the bottom end on the defensive category as well, and have struggled to slow down opposing shooters all year. They rank 315th in opposing field goal percentage while allowing the competition to convert on nearly 54% of attempts.
In contrast, the Eastern Washington Eagles shoot nearly 50% from the field, and over 37% from three. They hold a huge advantage in nearly every shooting category, and score over 112 points per 100 possessions.
Sure, Sac State have won three straight games, but the metrics prove they don't belong in the same conversation as Eastern Washington. Bet on the Eagles to win big.
