If the semifinals were any indication, the Horizon Conference Tournament Championship Game Tuesday should be a thriller.
Both semifinals Sportsbooks advanced on last-second baskets. No. 3 Wright State broke a 54-54 tie with Detroit with a last-second jumper to win 56-54, and No. 1 Valparaiso hit a last-second three-pointer to beat Green Bay 70-69 on Saturday.
Valparaiso has won three straight against Wright State and five of the last six games in this series. Wright State has put up a fight over that stretch however, going 3-1-1 ATS over its last five games against Valparaiso despite just a 1-4 SU record.
The Raiders will try to spoil to the party on Tuesday; they are 18-11 ATS against the number this season, while the Crusaders are 18-11 ATS. Wright State is 14-11 on the totals; Valparaiso is 14-13.
View Wright State vs Valparaiso Odds and Stats.
Betting Line:
The Raiders were listed as 9-point underdogs at many online sportsbooks, including Sportsbook.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Crusaders - Raiders odds would favor the Crusaders if the lines were set according to our power ranks. Valparaiso is rated No. 81 in the current Odds Shark poll, while Wright State is at No. 207. Mathematical models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 73-67 win for the Crusaders.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Valparaiso's No. 68-ranked offense, averaging 72 PPG, against a Raiders defense that ranks No. 18 at 58.1 PPG. The Crusaders field goal percentage has averaged 48.8% so far, more than the Raiders marksmen have achieved on the year, 43.6% per game.
Defensively, Wright State features the nation's No. 11-rated defense on the road, allowing 59.4 points per game. Valparaiso, meanwhile, comes in at No. 92 nationally in scoring at home.
Wright State was a 56-54 Sportsbook in their most recent outing on the road against Detroit. They covered the 7-point spread as underdogs. Wright State earned a 56-54 victory over Detroit on Saturday, getting 14 points from Miles Dixon at Athletics-Recreation Center.
Valparaiso was a 70-69 Sportsbook in their most recent outing at home against Wisc-Green Bay. They failed to cover the 9-point spread as favorites. Valparaiso got 25 points from Ryan Broekhoff en route to a 70-69 victory over Wisc-Green Bay on Saturday at Athletics-Recreation Center.
Wright State Raiders Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
After playing Detroit are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
Valparaiso Crusaders Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 9-1
After playing Wisc-Green Bay are 5-5
After a win are 8-2
A few Raiders at Crusaders trends to consider:
Wright State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wright State's last 7 games on the road
Wright State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Valparaiso
Wright State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Valparaiso
Valparaiso is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Valparaiso is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Valparaiso is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Wright State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Valparaiso's last 9 games
