March Madness bubble bets are an annual college basketball tradition. With 353 Division I Men’s basketball teams there are bound to be some heartbreaks as the greatest tournament in sports gets underway. The moans and groans are only louder if you bet on an outfit to make (or miss) March Madness.
Selection Sunday will soon be upon us. Here are my top four March Madness bubble prop bets.
Best March Madness Bubble Prop Bets
Before making any March Madness bubble prop bets, it’s important to remember, the people sitting on the committee are human beings, and thus each ranking will be subjective. That in itself proves there is value to be found on this market, as despite their best attempts at predicting the outcome, sportsbooks are still at the mercy of the committee's choices.
As much as college hoops heads have KenPom and Haslametrics, the committee appears to rate the less glamorous strength of schedule, and Quadrant 1 wins more than anything at the moment.
Quadrant 1 games include matchups against any team ranked in the top 75 of the NCAA’s NET rankings, which takes into account results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and quality of wins and losses.
All odds are as of February, 25th.
Providence To Make The 2024 NCAA Tournament -130
The Friars are my favorite bubble bet to make the tournament at -130 odds. Providence has five Quad 1 victories this season. They’re 43rd in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and 45th in NET Rankings. Providence are rated as a 10th seed in Haslametrics predictions. The Friars are playing inspired basketball, and have already beaten other bubble squads in Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John’s and Cincinnati. Plus, they're a favorite of our computer picks and for good reason.
Devin Carter continues to show that he’s one of the best players in the country:
— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) February 22, 2024
◾️ 22 PTS
◾️ 7-20 FG
◾️ 11 REB
◾️ 7 AST
◾️ 4 BLK pic.twitter.com/hInapP06R1
They’re ranked 34th in the nation in offensive efficiency according to KenPom, and their -130 odds present a March Madness value opportunity. Winners of four of their last five games, the Friars strong run of play has them well positioned to enter the Madness. Make Providence your first March Madness bubble bet. You won’t regret it.
Indiana State To Make the 2024 NCAA Tournament -115
Larry Bird’s alma mater is once again back in the NCAA Tournament conversation.
The 24-5 Sycamores are 32nd in NET rankings, and top the nation in effective field goal percentage. On top of Division I in three-point shooting is hardly a bad spot to be.Their three point shooting alone could take them into the tournament.
Indiana State leads college hoops in eFG% thanks at least in part to newcomers Ryan Conwell & Isaiah Swope. The former Hoosier prep duo combined to hit over 46% of their 3FGA. The Valley kicks off tonight (SIU). Again, no substitute for shotmakers. ISU has a few. pic.twitter.com/9E9mkjGByX
— Nick Baumgart (@Nick_Baumgart) November 28, 2023
Indiana State lead the Missouri Valley Conference at 14-3 and have won eight games on the road this season.
The Sycamores also top in the Missouri Valley conference at 14-3. They’re 32nd in NET rankings, with 8 road victories on the year. They don’t have much of a chance to bolster their resume with only conference matchups remaining. However, by almost every major metric, the Sycamores have done enough to book their March Madness tournament ticket.
Seton Hall To Make the 2024 NCAA Tournament -105
Shaheen Holloway’s coaching reignited the Seton Hall’s March Madness chase.
They boat impressive victories over conference behemoths UConn and Marquette, and five Quad 1 victories. With a 10-5 record in the incredibly strong Big East conference, the Pirates have as strong a case for a March Madness bid as any bubble team.
🧑🍳🧑🍳🧑🍳#HALLin 🔵⚪️ pic.twitter.com/kcJd3YSXtF
— Seton Hall Men's Basketball (@SetonHallMBB) February 25, 2024
Seton Hall have won five of six games, with rematches against UConn, Villanova, and Creighton looming. The Pirates have a top-60 strength of schedule rating, and sit 65th in Net rankings. Seton Hall's stifling defense will be a major proponent of their NCAA Tournament bid. The Pirates rank 35th in defensive efficiency, allowing fewer than 98 points per 100 possessions. Crucially, they sit 15th in defensive near-proximity percentage allowing opponents to make just 51.3% of close-up attempts.
Strong showings down the stretch, and maybe another signature victory against one of the big-name Big East foes will clinch a March Madness for the Pirates.
