What a night! After three of the first four Sweet 16 duels produced classic March Madness contests, Friday's slate is even more appealing for bettors. We've got blue bloods, and new bloods and underdogs galore as some of college basketball's greatest talents take the hardwood for a shot at the Elite Eight.
Below, Tony Farmer, David Caraviello and I break down our expert picks for Friday's Sweet 16 matchups.
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Nick's Pick: NC State +7
Matchup: NC State vs Marquette
Shaka Smart's Golden Eagles sit 15th in the nation in percentage of possessions ending within 10 seconds. They're the closest thing to the Phoenix Suns' famous seven seconds or less offense in this tournament. However, they're also one of the weakest rebounding teams in the country, sitting 282nd in offensive rebounding percentage and 278th defensively. That combo can lead to an awful lot of empty possessions if the Golden Eagles shooters fail to knock 'em down.
The crowd loves DJ Burns Jr. 😤 @PackMensBball pic.twitter.com/ItFP3gg1la
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 22, 2024
For all their faults, the Wolfpack allows the average opponent to connect on just 39.7% of field goal attempts. They've held each of their last five opponents to under 76 points and allowed hot shooting teams in North Carolina and Duke to connect on less than 27% of three-pointers in recent matchups. I think NC State controls the tempo and turns this game into a rock fight. Look for DJ Burns to feast down low, and pummel the Golden Eagles late.
Nick's Pick: Creighton +3
Matchup: Creighton vs Tennessee
Our computer picks like this Sweet 16 extravaganza to come down to the wire, with each team projected to score 76.4 points.
The value lies in Creighton here, especially if you can get the Blue Jays at 3.5. Greg McDermott's team can shoot the lights out, knocking down nearly 49% from the field and 37% from three on the year. Creighton boasts the type of scoring depth to compete with any team in the country as four players score in double figures. Star guard Trey Alexander knocked down 4-of-8 threes to lift his squad over the Oregon Ducks in the Round of 32.
Last night proved that teams' with scoring depth throughout their lineups (Alabama, Clemson) are able to persevere as underdogs. Tennessee's Dalton Knecht may be the best player in this contest, but I like Creighton's depth to pull through. Creighton's moneyline at +136 is also an interesting play. The Blue Jays will dispel the ghosts of last year's tournament loss and move on to the Elite Eight once again.
Tony's Pick: Tyler Kolek OVER 7.5 assists (-145)
Matchup: Marquette vs NC State
This bet may look familiar if you follow this page because we easily cashed the same bet the last time Marquette played Colorado. I’m going back to the well after Kolek notched 11 assists vs. the Buffaloes in a game where the Golden Eagles scored 81 points. In that Colorado game, Kolek played a team-high 40 minutes and unless he gets into foul trouble or Marquette finds themselves in an extreme blowout, that’s what can be expected moving forward.
Kolek’s season average for assists is “only” 7.9 per game (he leads the nation) which at first glance makes this bet seem shaky. However, that average includes a game Kolek was injured in (18 minutes) and multiple blowout games he only played 20-27 minutes. In his last four games, Kolek is averaging 12.5 assists and double digits are very realistic because it’s obvious to anyone watching Marquette games the offense runs through him.
Tony's Pick: Zach Edey OVER 25.5 Points (-105)
Matchup: Purdue vs Gonzaga
Purdue’s big man has scored 25+ points in eight of his last nine games, and the one exception was vs. Utah State when Purdue won by 39 points and limited him to 27 minutes. The chances of a blowout are far less vs. a skilled team like Gonzaga. The Bulldogs' tallest player is 6-10, so look for the 7-4 Edey to utilize his height advantage in this one.
Purdue’s ugly First Round loss aside, Edey has a habit of stepping up in big games. For instance, last year he scored 32 points in the Big Ten Semifinal vs. Ohio State last year and 30 points in the conference final vs. Penn State. In the conference tournament this season, he scored 29 points vs. Michigan State and 28 points vs. Wisconsin.
David's Pick: Duke +4
Matchup: Duke vs Houston
The Cougars are a little beat up right now, and it’s shown in their last two games against power-conference opponents: a 28-point loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament title game, and an overtime close shave against Texas A&M in the second round of the Big Dance.
Those look like warning signs for a team that’s never been great against the spread to begin with, and now faces a well-rounded Duke team coming off its best game of the season—a 38-point annihilation of James Madison last Sunday.
David's Pick: Gonzaga +5 vs Purdue
Matchup: Gonzaga vs Purdue
The Zags team that lost to the Boilermakers by 10 in the Maui Invitation was one bereft of outside shooting and would go on to struggle mightily in much of its nonconference slate. Purdue is destroying opponents right now, no doubt, and big man Zach Edey has looked otherworldly through two tournament games. But the Gonzaga of today is much better than the earlier version Purdue faced in Hawaii, and with players like 6-9 Graham Ike and 6-8 Anton Watson, the Bulldogs are also strong in the paint.
