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Top 25 College Basketball Betting Preview: Sizing up Duke vs. North Carolina ATS

David Caraviello Published on: Mar 06, 2024 8:55 AM ET

The college basketball regular season concludes this weekend with the biggest rivalry in the sport: North Carolina at Duke. Both teams are in the top 10 of the AP poll, a share of first place in the ACC will be on the line, and it will all be wrapped up in the usual vitriol between two elite programs separated by eight miles that have been butting heads for over a century.

For sports bettors, though, all that emotion and history goes out the window, replaced by trends and statistics. And the resulting number crunch results in something of a conundrum: a North Carolina team that’s been better most of this season—to the point where the Tar Heels have been discussed as a potential No. 1 regional seed in the NCAA tournament—against a Duke team that suddenly has a far better mark against the spread.

Entering the first UNC-Duke game this season, in late January, these teams seemed headed in different directions: North Carolina had won 10-of-11, Duke had recently lost at home to Pittsburgh, and 4.5-favorite UNC won by nine in the Dean Dome in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. Since then, the Blue Devils have won eight of nine both outright and against the spread, culminating in a 15-point victory at 6.5-point underdog N.C. State on Monday night.

North Carolina during that same span? The Tar Heels followed that Duke win by losing at home to Clemson for just the second time in school history, and then were upset at Syracuse. Heading into Tuesday night’s home game against 15-point underdog Notre Dame, UNC had covered just two of its past seven, and the grind of the season has exposed its roster as startlingly thin behind the lead trio of Armando Bacot, R.J. Davis and Harrison Ingram.

Duke now sports an 18-11-1 record ATS, according to TeamRankings.com, while the Tar Heels were 16-13 heading into their game against Notre Dame. The Blue Devils are also 11-6 against the spread at home, and haven’t failed to cover at Cameron Indoor since Jan. 27 against Clemson. North Carolina meanwhile is 6-3 against the spread in true road games, including 1-3 (with two outright losses, at Georgia Tech and Syracuse) in their last four away from Chapel Hill.

All of those signs point toward a Duke cover being the play here, assuming the Blue Devils are a slim favorite at home. And there’s something else sports bettors should take note of on Saturday night: Duke has gone UNDER the total in eight of its last nine, according to TeamRankings, while UNC had gone UNDER in 12 of its last 17 entering Tuesday night. Duke has held its last three opponents to 59, 48 and 64 points respectively, so the possibility of a low-scoring grinder looms.

The hype around this game is legit, given it’s the first time these rivals have met as top-10 teams in Cameron since February of 2019, when No. 8 UNC upset top-ranked Duke 88-72. It’s a nice table-setter for March Madness, and the sports betting bonanza to come. And with that, here are some notable sports betting winners and losers from the season’s past few weeks.

Winners

South Carolina: All is forgiven, Gamecocks. After an ugly two-game stretch that prompted hand-wringing throughout the Palmetto State, South Carolina bounced back with three straight wins, all of them covers, and two of them on the road. That sets up a massive home game Wednesday night against Tennessee—whom the Gamecocks upset as 14-point underdogs in Knoxville—with a share of first place in the SEC on the line.

Gonzaga: Just in time for March Madness, the Zags are back looking like their old selves. Last week was very impressive: an 18-point win as a 4-point road favorite against a very good San Francisco team, and then a pummeling of previously red-hot St. Mary’s as a 3.5-point road underdog. Gonzaga is still under .500 for the season ATS, but trending in the right direction after covering six of their past 10.

Baylor: The Bears are another team that’s peaking at the right time. After dropping three of five, Baylor has rebounded to win three straight both outright and ATS, a run capped by a gritty comeback victory over Texas on Monday night as a 7-point home favorite. That stretch includes covering as a road underdog at TCU and at home against Kansas as a 4.5-point favorite. 

Losers

Kansas: We’ve written repeatedly this season about how poorly Kansas has fared ATS, and now the outright losses are beginning to pile up as well. The Jayhawks entering a Tuesday game against Kansas State had dropped four of seven outright, and five of seven ATS. This is the worst team in the AP Top 25 in cover rate, standing Monday at 42.9% according to TeamRankings.

Dayton: The Flyers, who started the season 16-2 and once won 13 straight games, have come back to earth after dropping three of six entering a Tuesday game at St. Louis. Dayton has been equally as iffy ATS, covering just three of its past eight. While the top half of the Atlantic 10 is better than people give it credit for, it’s legitimate to question why the league’s third-place team remains in the Top 25 at all.

Alabama: The Crimson Tide has all kinds of talent, can put up 90 points per game with ease, and still struggles to beat A-list opponents. Entering a Tuesday night game against Florida, Alabama had lost two of three outright and three of four against the spread, falling as a 2.5-point underdog at Kentucky and a 4.5-favorite at home to Tennessee. The Tide is now 3-8 against Quad 1 opposition, which doesn’t bode well for March.

Upset Alert

Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch this week as potential point-spread upsets:

Creighton at Villanova: The Wildcats, playing for their NCAA tournament lives, are in the midst of a nice finishing kick that’s seen them win five out of six outright and cover six out of eight as of Tuesday. Their regular-season finale is against a Creighton team that entering the week had won and covered in six out of seven, beating both Connecticut and Marquette in the process.

Arizona at USC: Once a dicey prospect away from McKale Center, the Wildcats had won and covered in four straight road games entering a UCLA-USC swing to close the regular season. The Trojans have been a massive disappointment, yet have still covered three straight (including at Washington State) entering the season’s final weekend. Isaiah Collier, Boogie Ellis and company will have plenty of pride on the line in a home finale against Arizona.

Illinois at Iowa: An afterthought for much of this season, the Hawkeyes are making a late bid to wedge their way into the NCAA conversation after winning four out of five and covering the spread three times in that span. Illinois entering this week has won five of six, including a 10-point victory as a 9.5-point favorite over the Hawkeyes in Champaign, but has a tough final week with Purdue on Tuesday before facing desperate Iowa on the road. 

Player Prop Watch

Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:

  • Zack Edey, Purdue center: Entered the week with averages of 24 points and 11.8 rebounds per game, having posted double-doubles in 12 of his past 13 contests and scoring 35 and 32 in his past two outings.
  • Hunter Dickinson, Kansas center: Entered the week with averages of 18.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, having scored 20 points in three of his past four contests.
  • R.J. Davis, North Carolina guard: Entered Tuesday with a scoring average of 21.4 points, having scored 20 or more in four of his past seven outings.
  • Kyle Filipowski, Duke center: Entered the week with averages of 16.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, scoring in double-figures in three of his past five outings.
  • Dalton Knecht, Tennessee guard: Entered the week with an average of 20.6 points per game, having scored 20 or more in five of his past seven outings.
  • Antonio Reeves, Kentucky guard: Entered the week with an average of 20 points per game, having scored at least 21 points in five consecutive outings.
  • Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois guard: Entered the week with an average of 22 points per game, having scored 23 or more in six of his past seven outings.
  • Mark Sears, Alabama guard: Entered the week with an average of 20.7 points per game, having scored 20 or more in 11 of his past 12 outings.
  • Armando Bacot, North Carolina center: Entered Tuesday with averages of 14 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, having posted double-doubles in six of his last eight outings.

Top 25 Pick 3

Houston to cover against Kansas: Despite their glittering overall record, Houston entered this week under .500 against the spread, and having covered just two of their past nine games. But no team in the Top 25 is worse at covering the spread than Kansas, which is 3-6 against the number in true road games this season. The Jayhawks were also 1-5 in their last six road games heading to Houston.

Tennessee to cover against Kentucky: The Vols entering this week had won six straight and covered in five of those games, and have quietly built an excellent 10-4-1 record against the spread at home. Tennessee in early February put up 103 points on Kentucky to cover as a 1.5-point road underdog, while the Wildcats have been wildly inconsistent all season, especially away from Rupp Arena.

Auburn to cover against Georgia: The wheels have come completely off for the Bulldogs, who entered the week having lost nine of 10 outright and seven of their last nine ATS. Auburn is limping down the stretch, but entering the week the Tigers have won and covered in four straight games against SEC opponents likely to miss the NCAA tournament, including a 21-point victory in Athens as a 7-point road favorite.

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