The New England Patriots are 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS all-time against the Baltimore Ravens and will be looking for their third AFC Title in seven years with a win over Baltimore this Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
The AFC championship odds menu reflects this domination as the Pats opened as TD favorites in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship that New England won 23-20.
Each of New England's last five wins against Baltimore have been by six points or less. The total has gone OVER in 12 of New England's last 15 games and in seven of New England's last eight home games.
[ Check dozens of Patriots Ravens props including Tom Brady and Ray Lewis betting options ]
Baltimore has lost six of seven trips here since 1994, while the OVER is 7-1 in the past 8 New England home games.
The Ravens are 7-3-1 ATS in 11 games vs AFC East teams since 2008 and last week they broke a string of 16 straight losses where they were a dog of 8 points or more. They are back in the same situation here, can they beat those long odds two weeks in a row?
"Last week the bettors had no problem taking New England -10 over Houston, costing the book a pretty penny on Sunday, but this week is a little different as believe it or not 70% of the money is on Baltimore getting 10 points, and is one of those rare weeks as a bookmaker I get to root for the Patriots,” said Kevin Bradley of Bovada sportsbook.
Oddsmakers at had the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites in the game but bet up to -9 by Friday, while the betting total opened early in the week at 51 over at 5Dimes.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
It's a betting matchup between the No. 5-rated Patriots and the No. 15-ranked Ravens, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at Odds Shark. Predictive-scoring models run on this game indicate a potential 40-29 result in favor of the Patriots.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up New England's No. 1-ranked offense (34.8 PPG) against a Ravens defense that ranks No. 12 at 21.5 PPG. The Patriots passing attack has averaged 291.4 yards per game, more than the Ravens give up through the air (228.1 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Ravens feature the league's No. 27-rated road run defense, allowing 136.4 yards per game. New England, meanwhile, ranks No. 8 in rushing offense at home.
In their last action, Baltimore was a 38-35 winner on the road against the Broncos. They covered the 9-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (73) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Joe Flacco dusted the Broncos secondary for 3 TDs last time out as the Ravens defeated Denver 38-35 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
New England won its last outing, a 41-28 result against the Texans on January 13. The Patriots covered in that game as a 9.5-point favorite, while the 69 combined points took the game OVER the total. Last time out, Tom Brady threw for 3 scores and 344 yards in leading his team past Houston at Gillette Stadium.
Baltimore Ravens Trends:
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 7-3
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few Ravens at Patriots trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
Baltimore is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games at home
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore