The Buffalo Bills will try to break a three-game losing streak Thursday night when they host the Miami Dolphins at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
The Bills are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS over their last six games.
Miami is 0-2 SU and ATS over its last two games since starting the year off 4-3 SU and ATS. The Dolphins are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against Buffalo.
The line opened as a PK, but was quickly bet to -1.5 for the Bills at BetOnline. The total was 45.5 early in the week.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Bills sit at No. 29 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Dolphins are at No. 26 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Dolphins will win this game 22-16.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Buffalo's No. 16-ranked offense (23.4 PPG) against a Dolphins defense that ranks No. 8 at 20.7 PPG. The Bills passing attack has averaged 215.6 yards per game, less than the Dolphins give up through the air (278 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Dolphins own the league's No. 4-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 78.6 yards per game when on the road. Buffalo, on the other hand, rates No. 4 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
The Dolphins were a 37-3 loser in their most recent outing at home against the Titans. They failed to cover the 6.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (40) made winners of UNDER bettors.
The Bills were a 37-31 loser in their most recent outing on the road against the Patriots. They covered the 13.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (68) made winners of OVER bettors. Ryan Fitzpatrick's 337-yard performance through the air wasn't enough last time out, as New England earned a 37-31 win over Buffalo on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
Miami Dolphins Trends:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the division are 4-6
Buffalo Bills Trends:
When playing in November are 2-8
When playing on turf are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the division are 1-9
A few Dolphins at Bills trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Buffalo's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami home to Seattle, Sunday, November 25
Buffalo at Indianapolis, Sunday, November 25