If the Bills can shake this trend and move to 3-0 against their biggest tormentors, then NFL bettors will know Buffalo is for real.
The New England Patriots have won 15 in a row SU against Buffalo and 19 of the past 20 meetings, dominating the Bills like no other team.
It's no better at Rich Stadium, where the Pats are 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 seasons. But this seems to be a different Buffalo team, sitting at 2-0.
Still, is it enough to beat a team riding a 7-1 ATS streak on the road and which is 7-2 ATS in its past 9 games as a favorite?
Another intriguing angle is the over under when the Pats are favored. In 18 recent games as chalk, the Patriots have played OVER 16 times! [ Best OVER line was 53 at InterTops as of Thursday ]
The Bills are listed as 9-point underdogs at sportsbooks, with the total listed at 50.5.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Bills - Patriots odds would favor the Bills if the lines were set according to power ranks. Buffalo is rated No. 9 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Patriots sit at No. 12.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Buffalo's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 39.5 PPG, against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 14 this week at 22.5 PPG. The Bills aerial game is averaging 232.5 yards per game, less than the Patriots secondary allows through the air, 381 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Patriots feature the league's No. 10-rated road run defense, allowing 98 yards per game. Buffalo, meanwhile, ranks No. 1 in rushing offense at home.
Last time out for New England, they were a 35-21 winner as they battled the Chargers at home. The Patriots covered in the match as a 6.5-point favorite, while 56 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. In their last game, the Patriots got 3 passing scores out of Tom Brady en route to a 35-21 win over the Chargers on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
The Bills were a 38-35 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Raiders. They failed to cover the 3.5–point spread as favorites, while the total score (73) made winners of OVER bettors. Ryan Fitzpatrick dusted the Raiders secondary for 3 TDs last time out as the Bills defeated Oakland 38-35 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the division are 7-3
Buffalo Bills Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 3-7
A few Patriots at Bills trends to consider:
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New England's last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Buffalo's last 24 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
New England at Oakland, Sunday, October 2
Buffalo at Cincinnati, Sunday, October 2