Patrick Mahomes continues to build one of the greatest quarterbacking legacies in NFL history. He’s got a long way to go while chasing the GOAT. But, if Mahomes can lift the Lombardi Trophy this season, only Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana and Tom Brady will have more rings. This year hasn't gone according to plan in Kansas City, with their once dominant aerial attack all but grounded. Along the way, the Chiefs have become the NFL's ultimate underdogs.
Think twice before counting Kansas City out. This dynasty's just getting started.
Why you can’t afford to bet against the Chiefs
Betting against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs is not for the faint of heart. Mahomes is now 10-1-1 ATS in his career, with 8 SU victories as an underdog. In those games, he’s covered the spread by an average of over seven points per contest. Crucially, he’s 5-0 ATS when an underdog of 3-points or more.
The Chiefs are 3.5-point underdogs in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. His only against the spread loss came against the Buffalo Bills in 2022, in a 24-20 loss as three-point underdogs, when Josh Allen threw a career-best 13 straight completions. Stefon Diggs torched the Chiefs for 10 catches, 148 yards and a score, and Von Miller sacked no.15 twice. Now, Lamar Jackson is just as capable of torching the Chiefs defense. However, Kansas City ranked third in pass EPA per play allowed this season, and should be able to prevent a repeat performance.
You’ll remember the other contest well. As Mahomes battled Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams in one of the most epic regular season games in NFL history. The Chiefs lost a 54-51 Monday Night Football classic. Mahomes and the now-Detroit Lions star totaled an unbelievable 891 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. That contest was also just the 13th regular season start of Mahomes' career.
Craziest MNF Game Ever. Who Remembers This Game🔥
— Jelly (@JellyJNBA) March 30, 2020
105 Total Points (MNF Record)
1,001 Total Yards
7 Total Turnovers
Mahomes: 33/46 478 Yards 6TD 3 INT
Tyreek Hill: 10 Rec 215 Yards 2TD
Goff: 31/49 413 Yards 4TD
Samson Ebukam: 2 Defensive TDs
Aaron Donald: 2 Strip Sacks pic.twitter.com/CHJDz24ja0
Oh, and the Chiefs are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog, with 15 SU victories.
Proven Playoff Performers
No.15 has been absolutely unconscious in his playoff career going 13-3, while throwing for 4,561 yards with 43 total touchdowns. Those are absurd numbers in the best of times for quarterbacks playing against lowly non-playoff teams. Mahomes has done that en route to two Super Bowl titles in his first five years as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Lamar Jackson, the favorite to win the NFL MVP award, has just a 2-3 career postseason record. He’s posted just five touchdowns to go along with five interceptions, 1,052 passing yards and a passer rating of 75.7.
It wouldn’t be the playoffs without a Mahomes ➡️ Kelce TD!#ChiefsKingdom
— Yards Per Fantasy (@YardsPer) January 22, 2024
pic.twitter.com/RU6IlKW3Ed
There’s also a little thing called coaching to go along with the play of these outstanding quarterbacks. Now, both Andy Reid and John Harbaugh are fantastic coaches. In fact, Reid is one of the reasons Harbaugh is such a phenomenal coach, as Harbaugh served under him as special teams coordinator and then defensive backs coach before getting the Ravens job. However, since Baltimore won Super Bowl 47, Ray Lewis retired and Ed Reed moved on, the Ravens are just 3-5 SU in the playoffs. Including brutal losses to the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans in 2018 and 2019.
Harbaugh is 2-3 ATS at home, and just 5-3 ATS as a favorite in the playoffs. While Andy Reid is a phenomenal 8-3-1 ATS as an underdog in his playoff career as a head coach (Chiefs and Eagles).
Plus, the Chiefs have been here before. Kansas City is playing in their sixth straight AFC Championship game. Sunday will be the Ravens first AFC Championship game since they defeated Tom Brady and the New England Patriots after the 2012-2013 NFL season. There’s also the tiny caveat that Super Bowl winning quarterbacks are an unreal 59-24-2 ATS (71%) over the last 20 years.
How to Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs
Sure, you can take the simple route and bet the Chiefs at +166 on the moneyline or -105 to cover the three-point spread on Sunday. Or, we can find the deeper value on the board. Kansas City is +450 to win their third Super Bowl title in the last five seasons.
One last crazy number—Patrick Mahomes is now tied for 7th all-time with 13 playoff wins. He has as many as Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger and Roger Staubach, and more than Aaron Rodgers.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) January 22, 2024
If he wins the Super Bowl, he'll be alone in third, behind only Tom Brady and Joe Montana.
Having said that, the true value on the NFL Futures board is Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl 58 MVP at +500. The two-time Super Bowl MVP hasn’t had the same type of sparkling statistical performances we’ve become accustomed to this season. However, as his playoff statistics attest, he’s one of the most clutch performers in NFL history. Capable of rising in the moment, and pulling off what many NFL teams thought to be impossible. Sorry Buffalo. Apologies to Baltimore, San Francisco, and Detroit. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s ultimate underdog, and will head to their fourth Super Bowl in five years with a victory on Sunday. Add it to your playoff betting manifesto. Never bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
