Patriots Rare Underdogs vs Ravens
The New England Patriots hope to continue their dominance over the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday night in a rare situation where are not the favorite.
New England is 8-1 SU in its last nine games against the Ravens and this marks just the seventh time since 2008 that the Patriots are underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS in those games and 10-3 ATS in 13 games dating back to 2005 as a dog.
Baltimore will be looking to avenge its loss to New England from last year's AFC Championship Game.
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The betting has been split pretty evenly (as of Thursday) but Pats bettors may be waiting to see if the line inches higher on Baltimore before pouncing. In their last 13 road games, the Patriots are a very profitable 10-2-1 ATS.
Baltimore remained a 2.5-point favorite late in the week with the total sitting near 49 at Bovada.
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Power Rankings / Prediction:
This game matches up the No. 6 (Ravens) and the No. 2 (Patriots) teams in the league, according to our current NFL Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 39-33 result in favor of the Ravens is predicted by handicapping models, which would be a huge OVER play (best OVER line was at Bovada earlier, check for the latest).
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Baltimore's No. 2-ranked offense (33.5 PPG) against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 4 at 16.5 PPG. The Ravens passing attack has averaged 261 yards per game, more than the Patriots give up through the air (202 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Patriots feature the league's No. 1-rated road run defense, allowing 20 yards per game. Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks No. 12 in rushing offense at home.
In their last action, New England was a 20-18 loser at home against the Cardinals. They failed to cover the 13-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (38) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. Tom Brady led the way last time out for the Patriots, connecting for 316 passing yards, but failing to earn the victory in a 20-18 loss to the Patriots at Gillette Stadium.
Last time out for Baltimore, they were a 24-23 loser as they battled the Eagles on the road. The Ravens covered in the match as a 3-point underdog, while 47 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. In their last game, the Ravens were Week 2 losers coming out on the wrong end of 24-23 score against Philadelphia.
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in September are 6-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 8-2
Baltimore Ravens Trends:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on turf are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 5-5
A few Patriots at Ravens trends to consider:
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
New England is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing at home against New England
New England at Buffalo, Sunday, September 30
Baltimore home to Cleveland, Thursday, September 27