Patriots vs Dolphins: OVER the total
The New England Patriots will try to extend their winning streak to six when they visit the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium this Sunday.
The Patriots are 3-1 ATS over their last four games, but its the total that sees the biggest trend. The Pats have played nine straight OVERS and 16 of the past 17 against AFC East divisional rivals.
The total has gone OVER in each of the last four games between these two teams as well. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against the Dolphins over that stretch.
Bettors looking to side with the Dolphins in this one found them as 6.5-point underdogs earlier in the week at Sportsbook.ag, while the total was sitting at 51 and holding steady at Bovada.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Dolphins rated this week at No. 27 and the Patriots sitting at No. 3. It may or may not play a role in OddsShark score prediction models that turned out a 40-23 result in favor of the Patriots this week.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Miami's No. 26-ranked offense (19.2 PPG) against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 13 at 22.2 PPG. The Dolphins passing attack has averaged 212.4 yards per game, less than the Patriots give up through the air (289.4 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Patriots own the league's No. 7-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 91.7 yards per game when on the road. Miami, on the other hand, rates No. 6 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
In their last action, New England was a 49-19 winner on the road against the Jets. They covered the 7-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (68) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Tom Brady dusted the Jets secondary for 3 TDs last time out as the Patriots defeated New York 49-19 at MetLife Stadium.
Last time out for Miami, they were a 24-21 winner as they battled the Seahawks at home. The Dolphins covered in the match as a 3-point underdog, while 45 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. In their last gridiron battle, Davone Bess did much of the damage, producing 129 receiving yards as Miami beat the Seahawks 24-21 at Sun Life Stadium.
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in December are 10-0
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 9-1
Miami Dolphins Trends:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 4-6
A few Patriots at Dolphins trends to consider:
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing New England
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
New England home to Houston, Monday, December 10
Miami at San Francisco, Sunday, December 9