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Dolphins Bucs MNF Betting Preview

Destined to be a thriller, the winless Buccaneers host the distracted Dolphins in a Monday Night Football game that only diehard NFL bettors could love.

Miami opened as 4.5-point favorites, but the line had shrunk back to around -3 early in the week. The Dolphins suspended starting offensive tackle Richie Incognito due to ugly bullying allegations.

The Bucs were on the verge of the biggest upset of the season last week, before blowing a 21-point second-half lead at Seattle. Embattled coach Greg Schiano’s team is 1-13 straight-up and 3-10-1 against the spread during that stretch.

Neither team has had any success on Monday night, each going 1-5 against the spread in their last six appearances on MNF.

Tampa Bay is 5-18-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2006.

Supporters of the Dolphins have seen them go 4-4 and 4-4 ATS so far this season, while the Buccaneers are at 0-8 and 2-6 ATS. In totals betting, the Buccaneers are 4-4, while the Dolphins are 5-3.

View Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds and Stats.

Bettors who were going with the Buccaneers in this one found them listed as 4.5-point underdogs on the betting line at 5Dimes. Totals bettors have seen that number set earlier in the week at 41 for Monday's game.

The Buccaneers sit at No. 30 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Dolphins are at No. 19 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Dolphins will win this game 18-12.

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In their last action, Miami was a 22-20 winner at home against the Bengals. They covered the 3-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (42) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. Mike James tore up the turf for 158 rushing yards in the latest Buccaneers game, a 27-24 loss to the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field.

How They Match Up:
The game also pits Tampa Bay's No. 31-ranked offense, averaging 15.5 PPG, against a Dolphins defense that ranks No. 16 this week at 23.38 PPG. The Buccaneers aerial game is averaging 196.75 yards per game, less than the Dolphins secondary allows through the air, 252.25 YPG per game.

Defensively, the Dolphins feature the league's No. 8-rated road run defense, allowing 100 yards per game. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, ranks No. 24 in rushing offense at home.

A few Dolphins at Buccaneers trends to consider:
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games

Next up:
Miami at San Diego, Sunday, November 17th
Tampa Bay at Atlanta, Sunday, November 17th