Week 3 in the NFL saw upsets galore, including one that was the largest on record in OddsShark’s database (I’m looking at you, Bills!!) along with the Packers and Patriots letting myself and many bettors down by choking on the road.
But it wasn’t a miserable Sunday as I did better than in Week 2 by going 2-4 so for the bettors who faded me, congratulations, and for the bettors who tailed my picks, let’s get back to work.
You gotta have a short-term memory if you want to have any type of success in sports betting and to paraphrase Bill Belichick, “I’m on to Week 4.”
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go!
All lines courtesy of Sportsbook
The Pick: Patriots -6.5 vs Dolphins
Out of all the picks I’m making this week, this one has the most potential to blow up in my face. The Patriots looked like garbage for the last two weeks on the road and were held to 30 points total. But this is the Dolphins we’re talking about here and while they’re 3-0 to start the season, they’ve lost nine straight at Gillette Stadium by an average of 18.4 points and the Pats have won eight straight at home. I’m not indicting the Dolphins on their chances to make the playoffs in the AFC but I can’t see the Dolphins winning in Foxborough, let alone covering the spread.
The Pick: Saints -3 vs Giants
I can admit when I’m wrong and, boy, was I wrong about New York this season. The Giants offense can’t seem to score with the ferocity that I expected when they added RB Saquon Barkley and now they’re expected to keep up with a team that dropped 43 points on the Falcons? Good luck. Eli had his usual comeback game in Week 3 where he threw bettors off the scent (297 yards and two TDs) but even that game saw him sail some ugly passes. The Saints are ranked in the top 10 vs the run after three weeks and I expect them to romp the G-Men at MetLife Stadium.
The Pick: Broncos +5 vs Chiefs
Look, I get it, the Chiefs offense is nearly unstoppable and Patrick Mahomes is now the front-runner in NFL MVP odds. But this will be his first prime-time game in his young career and Mile High Stadium is a tough place to win in September. The Broncos are an excellent 72-17 SU at home in September since 1975. Let that stat sink in for a moment.
This is the first time KC is coming to Denver as a favorite since 2010 and I know the Chiefs will put up points but no one seems to mention that their defense has been shredded this season and is allowing an average of 30.7 points per game (ranked 30th). I think this is the game where the Mahomes Show gets bad reviews and the Broncos cover.
The Pick: UNDER 51 – Ravens vs Steelers
I’m tailing my man Joe Osborne for this pick and you should check out his betting preview for this matchup. This is the third-highest set total for Week 4 and I know oddsmakers think these offenses can put up points, but 52? OddsShark’s database goes back to 1984 and this is the highest total on record in this matchup with a 73-game sample size. This has the makings of a classic AFC North clash with each team getting enough stops to stifle offensive momentum.
The Pick: UNDER 46.5 – Buccaneers vs Bears
This might be more of a gut-call because when you look at the Buccaneers’ offensive numbers through three games, it’s like they’re playing Madden on rookie mode. However, the eye test tells me that the Bears defense might be the best in the league and are offense-busters given how they force turnovers.
We’ve seen the glimpses of the ol’ reliable Ryan Pick-Six-Patrick when he faced the Steelers so I think Chicago keeps him and the Tampa Bay passing attack in check and forces at least two or three turnovers. Another reason I like the UNDER is because of how inefficient Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense looks. I’d be shocked to see Trubisky throw for more than two TDs. This one could be a snoozefest, which is why I like a low-scoring game.
The Pick: Lions +3 vs Cowboys
My faith in the Cowboys is all but gone. Their offense stinks and Dak Prescott has regressed to the point that he is now averaging a woeful 166 yards passing per game with arguably the worst passing options in the NFL. I know they won and covered at home vs the Giants in Week 2 but even that seemed like a struggle. Matthew Stafford is the king of the backdoor cover and considering the way the Lions shredded the Patriots defense, I think their passing offense in a dome will break the Cowboys.
Gilles’ Record after Three Weeks: 6-12
