The gambling gods must have read my Pick Six article from last week because I finished 4-2 with my picks and nailed all three moneyline wagers. It also helped that Todd Gurley single-handedly saved my UNDER pick by refusing to go in the end zone. As the Trailer Park Boys say, “The way she goes, Bubs!”
That’s usually how picking NFL games works. One week you look like a betting savant and other weeks you can look like you’ve never watched a down of football in your life. We’re just past the halfway point of the season so there’s plenty of time to make this year a profitable one.
Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 9!
The Pick: Steelers +3 vs Ravens
The bad blood is always apparent when these two teams clash and I expect this to be a pivotal game when determining which squad takes the AFC North crown. The Steelers seem to rise to the occasion when facing the Ravens and have only been swept in the two-game season series twice since 2008, losing both games in 2015 and 2011. Since the Steelers are 8-0-1 SU in their last nine road games and the Ravens are trending in the wrong direction by dropping back-to-back games, I like the Steelers to cover.
The Pick: Seahawks ML vs the Chargers
The Chiefs and the Rams. Those are the only two teams that the Chargers have lost to this season and I think they’re the third-best team in the AFC behind the Pats and Chiefs. Does that mean they can go into CenturyLink Field and beat the Seahawks? Not likely. That’s because the Chargers’ recent four-game win streak was against garbage teams – the Niners, Raiders, Browns and Titans have a combined W-L record of 7-23-1. The Seahawks offense is rolling again by averaging 29 points per game over their last three and are a tough out at home.
The Pick: Packers +6 vs Patriots
Green Bay finally showed me something last Sunday vs the Rams after having two miserable performances on the road. The Packers will be in desperation mode to win this game after going 3-3-1 in their first seven games with the Vikings and Bears passing them in their own division. I know the Patriots are near unbeatable at home so that’s why I’m not taking the Pack to win this game outright but at +6, the number is just right for a cover bet.
The Pick: UNDER 60 Rams vs Saints
This number is historical because a closing total hasn’t been above 60 since 2004. Both of these teams are scoring a ton of points this season but in the Rams’ last 24 games (since the start of last season), the final score has only gone OVER 60 points in six of those games. The same thing for the Saints as the final score has only gone OVER 60 points in five of their last 23 games. If there are two teams that could surpass 60 points, it’s these two teams, but it’s a worthy risk to the UNDER when you have 60 points to work with.
The Pick: Rams +1.5 vs Saints
Until they lose, I can’t bet against them. The Rams are the only undefeated team in the NFL and are 11-1 SU in their last 12 away games with an average win margin of 14.5 points per game. Factoring in that the Rams took down the Saints 26-20 last season in LA, I’m going with the hot hand and the Super Bowl favorite.
The Pick: OVER 41 Cowboys vs Titans
This UNDER feels like a trap. I know it’s easy to write off both of these offenses but the Cowboys are averaging 28.6 points per game at home this season. While I don’t think the addition of Amari Cooper means the Boys will just start scoring 30 points a game going forward, it should open up the offense to allow Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott to execute the RPO. The Titans, on the other hand, are known for keeping games close as four of their games have been decided by three points or less so I expect Tennessee to keep it close and put up 20 points in Jerry World to nail this OVER.
Gilles’ record after six weeks: 22-26
