The Philadelphia Flyers are an afterthought when it comes to the Stanley Cup with odds at +6000. That means they're also an afterthought when it comes to just making the playoffs. Philly's chances to make the postseason are at 57% with +140 odds. That's some incredible value.
Halfway through the NHL season, the black-and-orange are third in the Metropolitan Division and hold one of three seeded postseason spots. Obviously, oddsmakers don't believe that will last.
But a recent trade for defenseman Jamie Drysdale could help prove those oddsmakers wrong and allow you to cash in on that incredible value.
Trading For A Big Need
By trading Cutter "I-don't-want-to-be-a-Flyer" Gauthier to the Anaheim Ducks, Philadelphia got a second-round pick two years from now and the aforementioned Drysdale. A right-shot puck-moving defenseman who's only 21 years old.
TRADE ALERT: We have acquired defenseman Jamie Drysdale and a second-round selection in the 2025 NHL Draft from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for forward Cutter Gauthier. https://t.co/sxQDDJRVtD
— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) January 9, 2024
A 21-year-old who's exactly what the Flyers need.
The immediate and most obvious benefit is how bringing in the right-shot Drysdale gives the Flyers' backend balance. Prior to the trade, Philly dressed four lefties and two righties. Now, all three pairs have a lefty-righty split.
Moving The Puck Up The Ice
But the biggest win in adding Drysdale is his excellent transitional skills. This is a player whose carried exits and entries per 60 are similar to some of the best transitional D's in the league. Just look at this graph. First, notice that Drysdale is neck-and-neck with Makar and then notice that you can't find a single current Flyer.
You don’t have to be good at controlled entries/exits to succeed but it’s the most repeatable stat for defensemen & usually means you’ll be a good player down the line. Lower end is someone like Leddy or Boqvist. pic.twitter.com/UvtVAa45sE
— Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) October 5, 2023
This is a kid who has a remarkable ability to move the puck out of danger and into a scoring spot for his team. Something the Broad Street Bullies just don't have.
Of course, that data tells the tale of how the Flyers' new number nine moves the puck out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone. But how about what he does when that puck gets to the offensive zone? His individual Corsi-for (unblocked shots on or towards the net) are better than any Flyer D-man, by a healthy margin.
Considering that Philly has the seventh-most shots per game it's impressive that Drysdale is that much better than all of his new teammates.
| Player | iCF/60 |
|---|---|
| Jamie Drysdale | 12.81 |
| Rasmus Ristolainen | 11.00 |
| Sean Walker | 10.62 |
| Nick Seeler | 10.22 |
| Travis Sanheim | 8.79 |
| Egor Zamula | 8.16 |
| Louie Belpedio | 8.07 |
| Cam York | 7.49 |
| Marc Staal | 7.21 |
Making The Dance
To me, with this addition, and with the way Philadelphia is playing in a weak Metropolitan Division I'm sure the Flyers will make the playoffs. So I really like those +140 odds to make the postseason this year. Per our odds calculator, that's an excellent $11.40 in profits on a $10 bet.
With all that being said, I'd also start betting the OVER on Drysdale's shot props. He's averaging 2.1 shots on net this year as a member of a Ducks side that ranks 24th for shots on goal. I would imagine the line for Drysdale's shot prop will start at 1.5.
Considering how much Philly shoots the puck - again they rank seventh for shots on net - and with how important Drysdale is going to be to Philly's offensive game - I have no doubt he's going to smash that line.
