We're following the Stanley Cup playoffs closely. Here are some trends that we've picked up on so far in the NHL's post-season.
Home Ice-Advantage Gone
Through the first 14 games of the playoffs, the home team raced to a 10-4SU record. But I told you to be careful. With games going to weaker sides' rink, we might see a change in the trend. And that's what we've seen now.
| Home Team Record | Profitability |
|---|---|
| 15-18 | -$654 |
That record has shifted to favor the road team at 55%. Whatever advantage used to exist is all but gone now. Hopefully, you took my caution to heart.
Home Profits
| Team | SU Home Record | SU Home % | SU Home Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina | 2-0 | 100.0 | 80.0 |
| Colorado | 2-0 | 100.0 | 127.02 |
| Florida | 2-0 | 100.0 | 112.7 |
| NY Rangers | 2-0 | 100.0 | 69.57 |
| Boston | 1-1 | 50.0 | -28.57 |
| Edmonton | 1-1 | 50.0 | -41.18 |
| NY Islanders | 1-1 | 50.0 | 65.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 1-1 | 50.0 | 10.0 |
| Vancouver | 1-1 | 50.0 | -35.48 |
| Winnipeg | 1-1 | 50.0 | -9.09 |
| Dallas | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Los Angeles | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Nashville | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Toronto | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Washington | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Vegas | 0-1 | 0.0 | -100.0 |
This year only the St. Louis Blues(+$1,085) and New York Rangers (+$691) were more profitable on home ice than the playoff-leading Colorado Avalanche (+$127).
St. Louis isn't in the playoffs and to be fair to New York they were matched-up against a weak Washington side. Sweeping them wasn't out of the question the second the matchup was announced, so the Rangers weren't getting profitable odds from sportsbooks.
Depending on who the Rangers get in the second round, we might see more profits there. Unless they succumb to the Presidents' Trophy curse.
| Team | SU Away Record | SU Away % | SU Away Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Rangers | 2-0 | 100.0 | 108.19 |
| Boston | 2-0 | 100.0 | 205.91 |
| Edmonton | 2-0 | 100.0 | 125.49 |
| Vancouver | 2-0 | 100.0 | 230.0 |
| Dallas | 1-0 | 100.0 | 86.96 |
| Vegas | 2-0 | 100.0 | 265.0 |
| Carolina | 1-1 | 50.0 | -39.39 |
| Colorado | 1-1 | 50.0 | -16.67 |
| Florida | 1-1 | 50.0 | -4.76 |
| Los Angeles | 1-1 | 50.0 | 60.0 |
| Nashville | 1-1 | 50.0 | 5.0 |
| Toronto | 1-1 | 50.0 | 25.0 |
| NY Islanders | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Winnipeg | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Washington | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
Wildly, Vegas was -$530 through the regular season on the road. So to see them bounce to +$265 in away profits is huge. The Golden Knights didn't have the lowest away profits of the playoffs though. There were three other sides with larger losses away from home this year:
- Colorado: -$816
- Edmonton: -$645
- NY Islanders: -$576
The difference is that neither of those sides is nearly as profitable as the Knights. Edmonton is close at +$125, but Colorado (-$16) and NY (-$200) are well back.
Live Betting
There's no surprise to see the Florida Panthers at 3-0 when scoring first through the playoffs. In the regular season, the Panthers held a remarkable 30-8 record. Only the Winnipeg Jets (316) and the St. Louis Blues (31-4) held a better record when scoring first.
| Team | After Scoring First | After P1 | After P2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 2-1 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Carolina | 2-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Colorado | 2-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Dallas | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Edmonton | 3-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Florida | 3-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Los Angeles | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Nashville | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| NY Islanders | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| NY Rangers | 2-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Tampa Bay | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Toronto | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Vancouver | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Washington | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Winnipeg | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Vegas | 1-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 |
Only four teams had winning records when trailing during the regular season. That was the Colorado Avalanche (20-15), Dallas Stars (20-17), Edmonton Oilers (18-16), and the NY Rangers (19-14). So there's no surprise to see the Rangers at 2-0 when allowing the first goal.
Though maybe that changes in round two when the competition gets tougher.
| Team | After Scoring Score | After P1 | After P2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Carolina | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Colorado | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Dallas | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Edmonton | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Florida | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Los Angeles | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Nashville | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| NY Islanders | 1-2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| NY Rangers | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Toronto | 1-2 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Vancouver | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Washington | 0-2 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Winnipeg | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Vegas | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Puckline
The puckline can be a dangerous bet to make in the NHL. While the puckline is designed to level the playing field and make the odds more profitable when betting on the favorite, they haven't been profitable this year.
There have been 359 favs at -200 or lower in the NHL this season. Only 174 (or 49%) have covered the -1.5 puckline. That is not ideal for betting the favs on the puckline. So beware. But if you find the right team you can make a lot of money.
| Team | ATS Fav Record | ATS Fav % | ATS Fav Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 3-0 | 100.0 | 520.0 |
| NY Rangers | 3-1 | 75.0 | 285.24 |
| Boston | 1-1 | 50.0 | 75.0 |
| Vancouver | 1-1 | 50.0 | 70.0 |
| Edmonton | 2-2 | 50.0 | 115.0 |
| Carolina | 2-2 | 50.0 | 20.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0-1 | 0.0 | -100.0 |
| Florida | 0-3 | 0.0 | -300.0 |
| Nashville | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Toronto | 0-2 | 0.0 | -200.0 |
| Dallas | 0-3 | 0.0 | -300.0 |
| Winnipeg | 0-1 | 0.0 | -100.0 |
(Teams omitted have not been made an ATS favorite yet.)
Everyone thought the Jets would continue to be that defensive powerhouse they were in the regular season. So the odds on the Avs against a -1.5 puckline were very profitable. In Game 2 it was +190 (hit), Game 3 saw +146 odds (hit again) and in Game 4 it was +150 (hit again, again).
If you fancy the odds for Game 5, the odds are +200 for the Avs on a -1.5 puckline.
(Pssst...if you're interested in the Avs vs. Jets, check out our +729 same-game parlay.)
| Team | ATS Dog Record | ATS Dog % | ATS Dog Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 1-0 | 100.0 | 36.36 |
| Boston | 2-0 | 100.0 | 81.48 |
| Vancouver | 2-0 | 100.0 | 90.45 |
| Vegas | 3-0 | 100.0 | 136.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 3-0 | 100.0 | 159.43 |
| Florida | 1-0 | 100.0 | 38.46 |
| Los Angeles | 2-2 | 50.0 | -78.34 |
| NY Islanders | 2-2 | 50.0 | -83.83 |
| Nashville | 1-1 | 50.0 | -47.37 |
| Toronto | 1-1 | 50.0 | -52.38 |
| Washington | 1-3 | 25.0 | -213.04 |
| Winnipeg | 0-3 | 0.0 | -300.0 |
(Teams omitted haven't yet been dogs.)
See there's still money to be made on losers! Tampa and their skirt-hating coach were eliminated from the playoffs within five games. BUT they still managed to cover a +1.5 puckline three times in the series. Making bettors a cool $159.43 in profits in the process.
That's the beauty of the puckline. Le-hoo-sers (said in a heavy Jim Carrey accent) can still fill your bankroll with profits.
