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Which NHL Teams to Target and Which to Fade in Back-to-Back Situations

A common hockey betting strategy is fading a team that’s on the second half of playing on back-to-back days. This is reflected in betting lines as teams who are playing their second game in as many days will normally have inflated odds and if you’re sharp, you can catch the books napping.

Fortunately for you, I had the data team here at OddsShark run some numbers on back-to-backs and highlighted the teams you should be focusing on when placing your NHL wagers and some teams you should avoid.

Three teams to Fade in back-to-back situations

3. Toronto Maple Leafs: Optimism has been the theme of this Toronto Maple Leafs season but as one of the youngest teams in the NHL, winning consistently is an extremely tough endeavor. This is illustrated by the Leafs' 2-7 record on the second night of a back-to-back and their -508.81 profit margin in those games. That said, head coach Mike Babcock seems to know where his bread is buttered as he's led his team to a 6-3 record in the first game of the Leafs' back-to-backs.

Record on 1st NightProfitO/URecord on 2nd NightProfitO/URemaining B2B's
6-3284.65-42-7-508.815-49

2. Dallas Stars: What an awful followup to the 2015-16 season that saw the high-scoring Stars win the Central Division and score the second-most goals. This year, Dallas has 42 points through 42 games and sits well below the league average in goals scored. At 2-6 in all back-to-back situations, the Stars are one of the worst teams to bet on when they have games on consecutive days. The positive spin here is that they have just five back-to-backs remaining on their schedule. 

Record on 1st NightProfitO/URecord on 2nd NightProfitO/URemaining B2B's
1-3-137.03-11-3-180.01-35

1. Arizona Coyotes: And now we get to the lowly 'Yotes. Arizona has made a commitment to analytics and so far, it's not paying too many dividends. The Coyotes are near the bottom of the league in almost every important stat category and have earned a pathetic 3-9 record in back-to-back situations. An interesting angle, however, is that they are much worse in the first game of back-to-backs and have lost bettors just $74 when they've bet on the 'Yotes to win the second game of b2bs.

Record on 1st NightProfitO/URecord on 2nd NightProfitO/URemaining B2B's
1-5-363.02-42-4-74.01-4-17

Three teams to target in back-to-back situations

3. Chicago Blackhawks: The 'Hawks have played more games than any other team in the NHL and have fared pretty well with such a grueling first half. They've gone 12-6 in all b2b scenarios and are 6-3 in both the first and second games. Like the Rangers, the Blackhawks have their solid goaltending tandem to thank for their success in back-to-backs. My opinion, however, is that Chicago will fade down the stretch with such a shallow roster and the 'Hawks could actually be a good fade from here on. 

Record on 1st NightProfitO/URecord on 2nd NightProfitO/URemaining B2B's
6-3254.172-3-46-3171.954-3-25

2. Columbus Blue Jackets: The season of the ridiculous keeps on trucking along with the Blue Jackets sitting merrily on top of the NHL standings. At the start of the year, many cited the large number of b2bs the Jackets were due to play as a reason they would not make the playoffs. What they've done, however, is earn a 12-6 record in all b2b situations, laughing at all the experts who called them a dead team walking. With 10 remaining b2bs, this is a team you should target heavily going forward.

Record on 1st NightProfitO/URecord on 2nd NightProfitO/URemaining B2B's
7-2580.107-25-4145.302-710

1. New York Rangers: Not only have the Rangers survived in b2b situations, they've flourished in them, going 12-2 overall and 7-0 in the second games of b2bs. That's an outrageous stat. Most of this success can be attributed to their stellar goaltending duo of Henrik Lundqvist and Antti Raanta as they don't lose much pedigree when they have to rely on their backup. With nine back-to-backs coming up in the remainder of their 2016-17 schedule, the Rangers should be your No. 1 target in b2b scenarios. If you want to run this stat through the wash, the Rangers have a back-to-back coming up this Friday/Saturday against the Leafs and Canadiens.

Record on 1st NightProfitO/URecord on 2nd NightProfitO/URemaining B2B's
5-2338.505-27-0651.243-3-19

This article was written and published on January 11, 2017*

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