Four teams are now left in the Champions League. We're down to the semi-finals. Two German teams as well as a Spanish and French side remain. Who lifts the trophy on June 1?
Real Madrid are favored at +140. But I would not bet against the best player in the sport right now. That's PSG's Kylian Mbappe.
2023-24 Champions League Title Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid | +140 |
| Paris St-Germain | +250 |
| Bayern Munich | +250 |
| Dortmund | +850 |
Odds as of April 29
Champions League Semi-Final Matchups
The draw is complete and we know what sides will face off in a two-leg semi-final. Here are both matchups with dates and locations for the two legs.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | First Leg | Second Leg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | Real Madrid | April 30, 3 PM ET (Allianz Arena) | May 8, 3 PM ET (Santiago Bernabeu) |
| Dortmund | Paris St-Germain | May 1, 3 PM ET (Signal Iduna Park) | May 7, 3 PM ET (Parc des Princes) |
Champions League Favorites: Real Madrid
They've got the best offense left in the competition at 1.94 goals per 90. The Galacticos know they can go toe-to-toe in a back-and-forth offensive battle with any squad and come out ahead.
Where they've got issues is on the back end. In this competition, Madrid has the seventh lowest goals against per 90 (1.16) for any side and the third lowest of all four remaining squads. Worrying for them is that, their semi-final opponent Bayern is better at 0.90.
Los Blancos are favs not only because they dispatched the former favorites, but they're also top of their domestic league with a ridiculous 13-point cushion (having lost only once all year), they've won the Champions League 14 times in club history (winning four since 2016), and they've got Carlo Ancelotti who's won the league four times (a coaching record).
Champions League Value Bet: Paris St-Germain
Never bet against the best player in the sport. The torch has gone from Lionel Messi/Cristiano Ronaldo to Kylian Mbappe. And he's hell-bent on ending his time with PSG as champion of Europe.
Mbappe leads the tournament with eight goals. But it goes beyond the number of goals scored. He's constantly finding himself in dangerous positions. His 125 progressive passes lead the tournament by an 11-point margin. Next on the list is teammate Ousmane Dembele at 114. The first non-PSG player is Leroy Sane at a distant 95. Thirty back of Mbappe.
The fact that Mbappe and Dembele combined for 239 progressive passes received in this tournament is outrageous. That's an average of 23.9 per game. And look Dortmund has the second-highest progressive pass count against in the tournament at 467 is great news for PSG. Mbappe (and Dembele) will find space in the Dortmund box and likely score a bunch.
PSG should get to the final. From there, manager Luis Enrique could likely see more success against Ancelotti. Enrique is 2-0-2 against Carlo.
Last 10 Champions League Winners
| Year | Club | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Manchester City | +250 |
| 2022 | Real Madrid | +1400 |
| 2021 | Chelsea | +2000 |
| 2020 | Bayern Munich | +1200 |
| 2019 | Liverpool | +1200 |
| 2018 | Real Madrid | +400 |
| 2017 | Real Madrid | +520 |
| 2016 | Real Madrid | +530 |
| 2015 | Barcelona | +550 |
| 2014 | Real Madrid | +500 |
After seeing four of the last five winners have opening odds above +1000, we got back to the favorites winning the competition last season. On September 6, 2022, City had +250 odds and went all the way to win the crown.
