UFC Fight Night 161: Jedrzejczyk vs Waterson Odds and Picks

The UFC heads to Florida for the second time this year as the Octagon will be set up at Amalie Arena in Tampa. Headlining the card is a bout in the women’s strawweight division between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson. The Sportsbook of this fight may be in line to fight Zhang Weili for the belt and Jedrzejczyk is a -360 favorite with Waterson coming back at +270.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson

Jedrzejczyk (-360) is returning to strawweight after losing her flyweight title fight against Valentina Shevchenko last December and has lost three of her last four fights. Meanwhile, Waterson (+270) is riding a three-fight winning streak, her longest since she started fighting in the UFC in 2015. Joanna was the former champ, beating Carla Esparza in 2015, and defended the title five times before losing to Rose Namajunas.

The Poland native, Jedrzejczyk, is predominantly a striker with a mix of Muay Thai and kickboxing. She has a high output of 6.07 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.77 significant strikes per minute. The Karate Hottie has a good mix of wrestling and, as her name suggests, karate. She has good submission skills, earning nine of her 17 victories in that manner, but hasn’t secured a submission win since 2016.

Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-360) via decision

Cub Swanson vs Kron Gracie

The son of Rickson Gracie, Kron (-185) makes his second walk to the Octagon looking to remain unbeaten. He made his UFC debut in February, earning a first-round submission win over Alex Caceres. Meanwhile, UFC veteran Cub Swanson (+150) is competing in his 18th UFC fight but is aiming to end a four-fight losing slide.

Gracie has one game plan and that is to get the fight to the floor and work toward a submission. All five of his professional wins have ended in that manner and his striking is very raw. As for Swanson, he has really good footwork and is constantly feinting, looking for opportunities to let his hands fly. Cub only stuffs 50 percent of takedown attempts, but he’s very good at keeping his opponents at distance with his relentless leg kicks. However, kicks open up a higher chance of getting taken down and four of his last six losses were by submission.

Prediction: Kron Gracie (-185) via submission

Niko Price vs James Vick

After three straight losses in the lightweight division, James “The Texecutioner” Vick (+135) is making the jump to the welterweight division and Niko “The Hybrid” Price (-165) will be the man standing across from him in his new class. Price is also coming off a loss after getting knocked out in the second round against Geoff Neal at UFC 240.

Standing six-foot-three, Vick was a giant in the lightweight division and used that size to his advantage with long strikes and submissions. However, the book has come out on Vick that when he’s pressured, he backs up with his chin up in the air, and he has been knocked out in two of his last three fights. Meanwhile, Price likes to pressure his opponents and let his hands fly with pretty good power himself. The Hybrid has won nine of his 13 pro victories by knockout but also lost twice in that manner.

The problem with handicapping this fight is both fighters get hit quite a bit, with Price absorbing 4.44 significant strikes per minute, while Vick absorbs 3.26 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, both men have suffered most of their losses by way of knockout. Offensively, though, Price has more knockout wins on his record and at the higher weight division.

Prediction: Niko Price (-165) via knockout

Bonus prop: Fight not to go the distance (-375)

Mike Davis vs Thomas Gifford

Two men coming off losses in their UFC debuts are looking to get their first Octagon victory. Thomas “The Young Lion” Gifford (+240) collided with Roosevelt Roberts in late April and fell by unanimous decision. On the other side, Mike “Beast Boy” Davis (-310) lost to Sodiq Yusuff in season 2 of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, failing to earn a contract, and then got his shot against Gilbert Burns on the same card as Gifford but lost by submission. Davis has taken this fight on late notice.

Gifford is a scrappy fighter who enjoys pushing the pace and keeps his opponents at bay with his long jab. Additionally, he does a good job tying up his opponents looking for submissions in grappling exchanges. Davis paws away with his jab to set up his heavy hooks, but in exchanges he got hit more often than he landed against Gilbert Burns in his debut. On the floor, he put up little to no resistance, almost simply accepting the position.

Prediction: Thomas Gifford (+240) via decision

Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas

Undefeated Mackenzie Dern (-150) lays her perfect 7-0 record on the line as she takes on 7-1 Amanda Ribas (+120). Dern is also 2-0 in the UFC, earning a split-decision win over Ashley Yoder and following that up with a submission win over Amanda Cooper. She has been off for over a year as she gave birth to her daughter in June of this year. Ribas won her UFC debut in June with a submission win over Emily Whitmire and her only loss came to Polyana Viana in 2015.

The American, Dern, throws a lot of loopy overhand punches and when they land, they have decent power behind them. She dropped Cooper in the first round of her last fight but has never had a knockout win. Four of her seven professional wins have ended by submission. Ribas likes to stalk her opponents, moving forward looking to clinch her foes and bring the fight to the floor. Her striking is a little raw and she mostly throws awkward straight punches as she walks forward. That being said, there is deceptive power in her strikes and she has three T/KO wins. Like Dern, Ribas also has high-level submission skills.

Prediction: Mackenzie Dern (-150) via decision

Matt Frevola vs Luis Pena

After earning a UFC contract from Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in season 1, Matt “The Steamrolla” Frevola (+140) has seen a little bit of everything through three UFC fights. He lost by knockout in his debut, had a majority draw in his second fight and won by decision in April. Meanwhile, Luis “Violent Bob Ross” Pena (-170) is on a two-fight winning streak since suffering his first pro loss in a split decision against Michael Trizano in November of last year.

Frevola is an aggressive fighter who throws longer strikes trying to bait his opponents closer to him so he can time a takedown. He averages 3.04 takedowns per 15 minutes and secured four in his decision win over Jalin Turner in April. Meanwhile, Pena is coming off his first knockout win in June since his pro debut in 2016. The 26-year-old has a ridiculous 75-inch reach that is exceptional for lightweight and uses his long limbs to lock in submissions.

Prediction: Luis Pena (-170) via submission

Eryk Anders vs Gerald Meerschaert

Eryk “Ya Boi” Anders (-150) and Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert (+120) both enter this fight off wins in their last bouts. Meerschaert is looking for his first winning streak since he won two in a row from 2017 into 2018, while Anders hasn’t won consecutive fights since his 10-fight winning streak from 2015 into 2018 to begin his pro career.

Ya Boi has had a rough go recently, dropping four of his last six fights, but two of those were by split decision to Elias Theodorou and Lyota Machida. He earned a first-round knockout in his last fight and that is his preferred method of victory with eight of his 12 pro wins coming in that fashion. As for Meerschaert, he rushes in with his strikes with not a lot of heat behind them. His main attack is the submission game. He is constantly looking for the takedown and will even pull guard to get the fight where he wants it.

Prediction: Gerald Meerschaert (+120) via decision

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 12 at Sportsbook