Two heavyweights ranking just outside the top five are set to do battle and make their case for why they should be in the mix for a title fight. No. 6-ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik takes on No. 9-ranked Augusto Sakai in this week’s main event of UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Sakai.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Sakai takes place at the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Looking at the main event, Rozenstruik vs Sakai odds have the higher-ranked fighter as the slight favorite. We have the full Rozenstruik vs Sakai odds and predictions below.
Rozenstruik suffered his first professional loss last May when he ran into current heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou in a fight that lasted just 20 seconds and ended with Bigi Boy staring up at the lights. He’s also coming off a decision loss in February against top contender Ciryl Gane.
We are seeing Sakai for the first time since his first-ever stoppage defeat, in the fifth round to Alistair Overeem last September. That setback snapped a six-fight winning streak that began in late 2017.
Rozenstruik vs Sakai Odds
Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has released the Rozenstruik vs Sakai odds, with Rozenstruik listed as the -125 favorite and Sakai the +105 underdog. This means you would have to wager $125 to profit $100 on a Rozenstruik win, while a $100 bet on a Sakai victory would profit you $105.
Our sports betting calculator tells us that the odds of -125 for Rozenstruik represent an implied win probability of 55.56 percent while Sakai’s odds have an implied win probability of 48.78 percent.
The largest favorite in the UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Sakai odds comes in the women’s flyweight prelim fight between Manon Fiorot (-550) and Tabatha Ricci (+380). The tightest betting line comes in the welterweight main card fight with Miguel Baeza (-120) narrowly favored over Santiago Ponzinibbio (+100)
Rozenstruik vs Sakai Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Heavyweight – Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-125) vs Augusto Sakai (+105)
- Heavyweight – Walt Harris (+150) vs Marcin Tybura (-185)
- Middleweight – Roman Dolidze (-145) vs Laureano Staropoli (+120)
- Welterweight – Santiago Ponzinibbio (+100) vs Miguel Baeza (-120)
- Middleweight – Tom Breese (-265) vs Antonio Arroyo (+210)
- Prelims
- Featherweight – Makwan Amirkhani (-190) vs Kamuela Kirk (+155)
- Heavyweight – Tanner Boser (-200) vs Ilir Latifi (+160)
- Welterweight – Francisco Trinaldo (+200) vs Muslim Salikhov (-250)
- Welterweight – Alan Patrick (+240) vs Mason Jones (-310)
- Women’s Flyweight – Manon Fiorot (-550) vs Tabatha Ricci (+380)
- Middleweight – Dusko Todorovic (-130) vs Gregory Rodrigues (+110)
- Lightweight – Jordan Leavitt (-210) vs Claudio Puelles (+170)
- Women’s Flyweight – Montana De La Rosa (-275) vs Ariane Lipski (+220)
- Featherweight – Sean Woodson (-185) vs Yousssef Zalal (+150)
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- Date/Time: June 5, 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | -125 |
| Augusto Sakai | +105 |
After Sportsbook his pro career with a 10-0 run, Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik (-125) has now dropped two of his last three fights and is looking to remain close to the top five in the division. Meanwhile, Augusto Sakai (+105) is coming off his first loss inside the Octagon, ending a six-fight winning streak that had him potentially only a couple of wins away from a title shot.
- Not only did Rozenstruik open his career with 10 straight wins but nine of those were knockouts and seven were in the first round. Overall, he is now 11-2 with 10 knockout wins while only one of his losses was a stoppage.
- Bigi Boy comes from a kickboxing background and that is apparent in the way he fights, with heavy kicks he can mix up from low to high, but he also has devastating power in his hands. He doesn’t have a lot of movement on his feet, rather being a little flat-footed, but he can counter powerfully.
- Due to his lack of movement, he can be caught off balance and if he is blitzed by a flurry of strikes, he will lean back on his heels and try to punch his way out of danger. This can lead to him getting knocked down but with the power he’s throwing back, he can end the night if he connects.
- Jairzinho has good conditioning, maintaining his power deep into the fight. However, his lack of output and footwork makes him a sitting duck against more agile heavyweights.
- Rozenstruik’s last three fights were Francis Ngannou (loss – knockout), Junior dos Santos (win – knockout) and Ciryl Gane (loss – unanimous decision).
- Sakai’s six-fight winning streak was snapped in his last outing but he rebounded from a similar setback earlier in his career. He started 9-0 as a pro and then suffered a loss and a draw before his most recent winning streak. Overall, he’s 15-2 with 11 knockout wins.
- Sakai has a tendency to throw a lot of feints at long distance before committing to a strike. When he does decide to engage, though, he usually storms forward with a flurry of strikes and pushes his foes against the cage where he predominantly likes to work.
- At times, Augusto will overextend on his punches when he thinks he’s made a read and if he misses, he’s off balance and extremely vulnerable to counters. That said, he has good footwork he uses to create angles before rushing in, which limits the risk of being countered.
- Sakai’s last three fights were Marcin Tybura (win – knockout), Blagoy Ivanov (win – split decision) and Alistair Overeem (loss – knockout).
Prediction: Augusto Sakai (+105) via decision
Walt Harris vs Marcin Tybura Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Walt Harris | +150 |
| Marcin Tybura | -185 |
Two heavyweights trending in opposite directions meet in the co-main event. Marcin “Tybur” Tybura (-185) enters this bout on a four-fight winning streak, the longest of his 13-fight UFC career. Conversely, Walt “The Big Ticket” Harris (+150) is facing a two-fight losing skid and is searching for his first win in nearly two years.
- Harris has struggled to find consistency. His longest streak of five wins in a row came early in his career but he has had a roller-coaster ride since then. He sports a 13-9 record with all of his wins being knockouts, but five of his losses are also stoppages (four knockouts, one submission).
- The Big Ticket is an explosive fighter with big power. He is all-out aggression early in a fight and throws with bad intentions any time his foes enter his range. However, he does tend to load up on his strikes, which can be countered, and his conditioning has been an issue in the past.
- Walt is at his best when he’s pushing the pace and striking first. If he’s forced backward and to counter, his setups aren’t well crafted and he just gets picked apart.
- Harris’s last three fights were Aleksei Oleinik (win – knockout), Alistair Overeem (loss – knockout) and Alexander Volkov (loss – knockout).
- Following back-to-back knockout losses in 2019, Tybura has emerged on a four-fight winning streak and picked up his first knockout win in over three years in his last outing. He holds a 21-6 record with 14 wins by stoppage (eight knockouts, six submissions) while four of his losses have come by knockout.
- Tybur is one of the few heavyweights who does a lot of his work on the floor, averaging 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes and securing seven during his winning streak. Through his 13 UFC bouts, he has landed at least one takedown in 10 of them.
- Marcin has good movement and does a good job striking back after absorbing a strike. If his opponent throws a kick, he usually will take the kick and rush in with a powerful overhand strike. Ultimately, he knows he has to get in the line of fire to close distance and get into a grappling exchange.
- Tybura’s last three fights were Maxim Grishin (win – unanimous decision), Ben Rothwell (win – unanimous decision) and Greg Hardy (win – knockout).
Prediction: Marcin Tybura (-185) via knockout
Roman Dolidze vs Laureano Staropoli Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | -145 |
| Laureano Staropoli | +120 |
Roman Dolidze (-145) returns to the cage just over two months after the first professional loss of his career. Looking to slap another loss on Dolidze’s record is Laureano “Pepi” Staropoli (+120), who has dropped his last two bouts and is searching for his first win in over two years.
- Dolidze opened his career with a perfect 8-0 run but took his first loss in his middleweight debut. Seven of his eight wins have been stoppages (four knockouts, three submissions), while his lone defeat came by decision.
- He has outstruck all three UFC opponents while also securing four takedowns over those bouts. Roman has good kicks and switches stances smoothly as he constantly creeps forward to close distance.
- Roman does bite a lot on his opponents’ feints, which can offer information and put him in dangerous spots. He likes to get into brawls because he struggles to set up his strikes to go first, outside of his kicks. A big knock on him is his lack of output, though he is efficient.
- Dolidze’s last three fights were Khadis Ibragimov (win – knockout), John Allan (win – split decision) and Trevin Giles (loss – unanimous decision).
- Staropoli had a run of seven straight wins, including two in the UFC, before his current two-fight skid. He holds a 9-3 record with seven stoppage wins (five knockouts, two submissions). Only one of his three defeats has been a finish – a knockout loss in his third pro fight.
- After competing in the welterweight division over his last six fights, Staropoli is returning to the middleweight division where he had three fights earlier in his career. He missed weight by 3.5 pounds in his last outing.
- Pepi is quick and has really good kicks. However, he has a very upright Muay Thai style of stance that leaves him vulnerable to being taken down, something that has happened five times in his last two fights. On the feet, he’s aggressive, getting in the face of his foes and exchanging strikes with good crisp combinations.
- Staropoli’s last three fights were Thiago Alves (win – unanimous decision), Muslim Salikhov (loss – unanimous decision) and Tim Means (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Roman Dolidze (-145) via decision
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Miguel Baeza Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | +100 |
| Miguel Baeza | -120 |
Laying his perfect 10-0 record on the line and looking to jump into the contender conversation is Miguel “Caramel Thunder” Baeza (-120). Meanwhile, Santiago “Gente Boa” Ponzinibbio (+100) is looking to find what earned him a seven-fight winning streak, which was snapped in his last appearance in January.
- After a seven-fight winning streak, injuries and external factors forced Ponzinibbio out of the cage for over two years and he lost in his return. He is now 27-4 – three of his losses have come by knockout while 21 of his wins have been stoppages (15 knockouts, six submissions).
- Gente Boa is an aggressive fighter, cutting the cage off effectively and looking to get into a strike exchange. He has an excellent jab and good kicks but in his return to the cage, he was a little gun-shy, really looking for the perfect shot.
- Santiago has very good head movement and footwork. When he starts feeling confident, he tends to drop his hands and fights loose, looking to counter when he stands in the pocket. That can be a good approach but when faced with a combination, he’s in danger because his hands are low.
- Ponzinibbio’s last three fights were Mike Perry (win – unanimous decision), Neil Magny (win – knockout) and Jingliang Li (loss – knockout).
- Baeza extended his perfect record with a submission win in November. His record now stands at 10-0 with eight stoppages (seven knockouts, one submission). Three of his victories have come in the Octagon, all by stoppage.
- Caramel Thunder has outstruck all three of his opponents in the UFC, averaging 4.64 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.89. Additionally, he has landed two takedowns over those three fights.
- Miguel is a fairly patient fighter, maintaining distance early as he dissects his opponents’ movements. He has really good kicks and mixes their location, keeping his foes on edge. When he lets his hands go, he is crisp, accurate and powerful. Baeza has a great killer instinct and when he thinks his foe is hurt, he is aggressive in looking for the stoppage.
- Baeza’s last three fights were Hector Aldana (win – knockout), Matt Brown (win – knockout) and Takashi Sato (win – submission).
Prediction: Miguel Baeza (-120) via decision
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Tom Breese vs Antonio Arroyo Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tom Breese | -265 |
| Antonio Arroyo | +210 |
Antonio Arroyo (+210) is still searching for his first win after dropping his first two bouts in the promotion. Meanwhile, Tom Breese (-265) is riding a win-one, lose-one streak over his last six bouts and is coming off a defeat in January.
- Breese opened his career with 10 straight wins before his current streak of inconsistency. Overall, he’s 12-3 with 11 wins by finish (five knockouts, six submissions). He’s been stopped twice, once by knockout and once by submission.
- Tom is an aggressive fighter, constantly inching forward looking to let his hands fly. He is predominantly a striker, having secured no takedowns in his UFC career, yet he has been brought down only five times over eight fights.
- He has a great jab that sets up his power shots, notably his straight left. He bounces around a lot, which can get him in trouble if he’s blitzed, but if he keeps pumping his jab, he can keep the blitz at bay.
- Breese’s last three fights were Brendan Allen (loss – knockout), K.B. Bhullar (win – knockout) and Omari Akhmedov (loss – submission).
- Prior to his first-ever losing skid, Arroyo had been on a five-fight winning streak, including two victories in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series Brazil. He sports a 9-4 record with eight of his wins being stoppages (four knockouts, four submissions), while he’s also been submitted twice.
- Arroyo has had a real issue with takedown defense, being taken down 15 times in his two UFC bouts, including 12 times in his last appearance.
- He’s very light on his feet with a wide karate-style stance. He blitzes forward nicely and has really good kicks at long distance. His conditioning has been a bit of an issue, slowing in the latter parts of rounds, and he doesn’t protect himself well in those situations.
- Arroyo’s last three fights were Stephen Regman (win – submission), Andre Muniz (loss – unanimous decision) and Deron Winn (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Tom Breese (-265) via knockout
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Sakai Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Heavyweight – Augusto Sakai | +105 |
| Heavyweight – Marcin Tybura | -185 |
| Middleweight – Roman Dolidze | -145 |
| Welterweight – Miguel Baeza | -120 |
| Middleweight – Tom Breese | -265 |
