Jones vs Gustafsson II Betting Odds

For the first time in exactly 17 months, arguably the UFC’s best fighter graces the Octagon again as Jon “Bones” Jones has his highly anticipated rematch against Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson for the light heavyweight championship at UFC 232. The former champion, Jones, won the first fight back at UFC 165 in 2013 and is a -300 favorite for this fight with the challenger, Gustafsson, coming back at +230.

Odds Analysis

The odds are a lot tighter than they were the first time that Jones and Gustafsson fought over five years ago as Jones closed as a -800 favorite in that fight with Gustafsson coming back at +550. The fight was extremely close with many believing that the Sweden native edged out the New Yorker to claim the championship, but the judges saw it in favor of Jones for a unanimous-decision victory.

Many people will jump on the fact that Bones has tested positive for performance enhancers in two of his last three fights, both against Daniel Cormier, and didn’t look like himself when he was “clean” against Ovince Saint Preux. In the OSP fight, though, Jones outstruck his opponent 111-58 and landed three takedowns for a unanimous-decision win. The other area of concern is a long layoff for the former champ but that isn’t a factor in this fight as Gustafsson has been out longer than Jones dealing with injuries. I think the Sportsbook odds are right where they should be and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line move a little bit in Gustafsson’s favor. 

Recently, Jones had a test that showed some turinabol, the substance he was suspended for 15 months for, still in his substance. The Nevada State Athletic Commission didn't have enough time to review all the science behind this so the fight was moved to The Forum in Inglewood, California as their commission has been dealing with this drug as it pertains to Jones for the last year and a half. USADA has said that this was not a new ingestion of this banned substance and are allowing him to compete.

Breaking down Jones vs Gustafsson II

Jones (-300) is an extremely creative and talented fighter, using a high-level fight IQ combined with above-average wrestling. Bones has shown on a few occasions (his first fight vs Gustafsson) the heart of a champion as he has survived a lot of damage but continues pushing forward en route to a 22-1 record with his only loss being a disqualification. The 31-year-old’s last bout saw him knock Daniel Cormier out with a head kick, but the fight was overturned to a no contest following a failed drug test.

Gustafsson (+230) is an exceptional boxer with fantastic cardio who has no problem rising to the occasion. As mentioned above, his first scrap with Jones was an epic war that left many wondering whose hand would be raised at the end of the 25 minutes. The Mauler put in a similar effort against Daniel Cormier at UFC 192, but once again came up empty-handed. The Sweden native only has two other losses on his record, a submission loss to Phil Davis in his second UFC fight and a knockout at the hands of the ever-dangerous Anthony Johnson in 2015. The 31-year-old hasn’t entered the Octagon since his dominant knockout victory over Glover Teixeira in May of 2017.

Jon outstruck Gustafsson 137-114 in their first meeting while each fighter landed a takedown. Both fighters were left bruised, battered and bloodied but it was Jones who left with his hand raised. Ever since, The Mauler has been calling for a rematch while Bones went on to beat three other challengers, including Daniel Cormier twice.

It’ll be interesting to see what improvements each fighter has made over the last year and a half. Of course, Gustafsson has been dealing with injuries, while Jones has been working on his craft while on suspension. The New York native said he didn’t train for his first bout with the Sweden native and that’s why it was so close. We will find out if he was telling the truth on December 29 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 232.