With a new women’s strawweight champion crowned two weeks ago at UFC 261, the division takes center stage as Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez compete in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Rodriguez.
Looking at Waterson vs Rodriguez odds, it is the No. 6-ranked Rodriguez who is favored over No. 9 Waterson. We have the full Waterson vs Rodriguez odds and predictions below.
Waterson has twice climbed the strawweight rankings but faltered when fighting the women near the top of the division. She’s coming off a controversial split-decision victory over Angela Hill last September and looks to make another run to the top.
Rodriguez took her first professional loss last July in a close split decision against former champion Carla Esparza. Marina got back in the win column in January with her first stoppage in the Octagon.
Waterson vs Rodriguez Odds
Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has released the Waterson vs Rodriguez odds, with Rodriguez listed as the -220 favorite and Waterson the +175 underdog. This means you would have to wager $220 to profit $100 on a Rodriguez victory, while a $100 bet on a Waterson win would profit you $175.
Looking at the odds for Waterson vs Rodriguez, our sports betting calculator tells us that Rodriguez’s odds of -220 represent an implied win probability of 68.75 percent while Waterson’s odds of +175 have an implied win probability of 36.36 percent.
The largest favorite in the UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Rodriguez odds comes in the featherweight prelim fight between Ludovit Klein (-265) and Mike Trizano (+210). The tightest betting line is in the middleweight prelim bout with Kyle Daukaus (-130) favored over Phil Hawes (+110).
Waterson vs Rodriguez Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Women’s Strawweight – Michelle Waterson (+175) vs Marina Rodriguez (-220)
- Welterweight – Donald Cerrone (-200) vs Alex Morono (+160)
- Welterweight – Neil Magny (+160) vs Geoff Neal (-200)
- Heavyweight – Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-200) vs Maurice Greene (+160)
- Lightweight – Diego Ferreira (+140) vs Gregor Gillespie (-170)
- Women’s Strawweight – Amanda Ribas (-200) vs Angela Hill (+160)
- Prelims
- Middleweight – Phil Hawes (+110) vs Kyle Daukaus (-130)
- Featherweight – Ludovit Klein (-265) vs Michael Trizano (+210)
- Middleweight – Jun Yong Park (+115) vs Tafon Nchukwi (-140)
- Welterweight – Christian Aguilera (+150) vs Carlston Harris (-185)
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- Date/Time: May 8, 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+
Michelle Waterson vs Marina Rodriguez Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michelle Waterson | +175 |
| Marina Rodriguez | -220 |
Each time that Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson (+175) broke into the top of the division, she ran into a two-fight losing streak. Marina Rodriguez (-220) earned a UFC contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series with a knockout and it took her sixth fight in the promotion to get her next knockout.
- Waterson has been struggling to find her footing recently, winning two or three straight, followed by a couple of losses in a row. Overall, she holds an 18-8 record with 12 of her wins being stoppages (three knockouts, nine submissions). Half of her losses have been finishes, with one knockout and three submissions.
- As her nickname “The Karate Hottie” suggests, she is a karate-style fighter with a sideways stance. She has a good lead jab; though it lacks a lot of power, it keeps her opponents at distance where she can utilize her kicks.
- With Waterson using her kicks, she forces her foes to rush in at close distance and when that occurs, she will sit down and fire strikes or level change for a takedown. She averages 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- Waterson’s last three fights were Joanna Jedrzejczyk (loss – unanimous decision), Carla Esparza (loss – split decision) and Angela Hill (win – split decision).
- Rodriguez had a perfect 10-0 record before she made her UFC debut and is 3-1-2 since being in the promotion. Seven of her 13 wins have been stoppages, with six knockouts and a submission, while her lone defeat was a split decision.
- She is primarily a striker and averages just 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing just two in her UFC bouts, including her DWTNCS appearance. On the feet, she has outstruck all but one of her UFC opponents, averaging 4.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.16.
- One of Marina’s main weapons is her lead right straight, which she throws over the top over her opponents’ jab or off of their kicks. She doesn’t do a great job stuffing takedowns, but once on the floor, she is strong at tying up her foes and not getting in danger.
- Rodriguez’s last three fights were Cynthia Calvillo (majority draw), Carla Esparza (loss – split decision) and Amanda Ribas (win – knockout).
Prediction: Michelle Waterson (+175) via decision
Donald Cerrone vs Alex Morono Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | -200 |
| Alex Morono | +160 |
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (-200) searches for his first victory since 2019, having gone 0-4 with a no contest over his last five fights. Also coming off a defeat is Alex “The Great White” Morono (+160), who is on a win-one, lose-one streak over his last four bouts.
- It pains me to say that Cowboy is up against it and one more loss may mark his final walk to the cage. This is Cerrone’s 37th UFC bout and in his pro career, he is 36-15 with two no contests. Among his wins, 27 are finishes with 10 knockouts and 17 submissions. Eight of his losses have come by stoppage (seven knockouts, one submission).
- With such a wealth of experience, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he is a well-rounded fighter. He has really good submission skills and, on the feet, his kicks are powerful and accurate. His boxing can be a little stiff and he doesn’t have a ton of head movement; he does his best work at distance with his kicks or on the floor.
- It seems to me watching Cowboy now that he’s just a little uncertain about what approach he wants to take. When he shoots for a takedown, it lacks full commitment; when he throws strikes, he’s a little wary that he’s going to be countered and he pulls up on his punches.
- Cerrone’s last three fights were Conor McGregor (loss – knockout), Anthony Pettis (loss – unanimous decision) and Niko Price (no contest).
- Morono has also been a recent mainstay in the UFC, competing in the cage 12 times over the last four years and holding a record of 7-4 with a no contest over that span. He sports an 18-7 record with one no contest – 11 of his wins are stoppages (five knockouts, six submissions) and he’s been knocked out twice.
- The Great White averages just 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he has secured four takedowns over his last two fights after not landing any in his previous 10 bouts. He has outstruck nine of his 12 UFC opponents.
- He tends to close the distance before throwing a punch, not necessarily setting it up properly. But when he throws, he’s usually powerful and has straight punches that often find the target. Defensively, he’s quite good covering up his body or checking kicks. I’d like to see a bit more output.
- Morono’s last three fights were Khaos Williams (loss – knockout), Rhys McKee (win – unanimous decision) and Anthony Pettis (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Donald Cerrone (-200) via decision
Neil Magny vs Geoff Neal Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Neil Magny | +160 |
| Geoff Neal | -200 |
Two men who had winning streaks snapped in their last outing look to right the ship in this fight. Geoff “Handz of Steel” Neal (-200) had been on a seven-fight winning streak prior to his decision loss to Stephen Thompson in December. Similarly, Neil “Haitian Sensation” Magny (+160) was a Sportsbook in three straight before losing to Michael Chiesa in January.
- Magny had a hiatus of nearly a year and a half between fights, from November 2018 to March 2020. That bout in 2018 resulted in a defeat but he went 3-0 in 2020 before his most recent loss.
- Overall, he holds a 24-8 record with 10 of his wins being stoppages (seven knockouts, three submissions). Six of his eight defeats have been finishes, with two knockouts and four submissions.
- The Haitian Sensation is long and wiry for the welterweight division, standing six-foot-three with an 80-inch reach. He uses his length well to keep his foes at bay, landing 3.67 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.05. Additionally, he averages 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and he can win fights in that manner as well as on the feet.
- As is the case with most fighters now in the UFC, Magny has been using a lot of leg kicks to slow the movements of his opponents. He does have a tendency to leave his head on the centerline when he throws, leaving him vulnerable to counters.
- Magny’s last three fights were Anthony Rocco Martin (win – unanimous decision), Robbie Lawler (win – unanimous decision) and Michael Chiesa (loss – unanimous decision).
- Neal had been on a tear since his DWTNCS appearance, winning his first five fights in the UFC (four stoppages) before running into Stephen Thompson in December. Neal is 13-3 with 10 of his wins being finishes (eight knockouts, two submissions). He has been stopped twice, once by submission and once by knockout.
- The southpaw doesn’t look for takedowns, having landed just two in his UFC career, both in the same fight. He stuffs 92 percent of takedown attempts and has been brought down just once, in his Contender Series bout.
- Handz of Steel isn’t very light on his feet, constantly moving forward and willing to take a shot to land a shot. He has big power in his hands and in his kicks but also doesn’t need to load up to do damage. His in-and-out footwork is impressive and he is good at drawing his opponents into his left hand.
- Neal’s last three fights were Niko Price (win – knockout), Mike Perry (win – knockout) and Stephen Thompson (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Geoff Neal (-200) via knockout
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Maurice Greene Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marcos Rogerio de Lima | -200 |
| Maurice Greene | +160 |
Struggling to find his footing in the UFC is Marcos “Pezao” Rogerio de Lima (-200), who has been riding a win-one, lose-one streak over his last 10 fights, most recently losing in November. Meanwhile, Maurice “The Crochet Boss” Greene (+160) has dropped three of his last four bouts following a three-fight winning streak.
- It is a little bit of all-or-nothing for de Lima, who has a 17-7-1 record with only four of those fights going the distance. Among his wins, 15 were stoppages (12 knockouts, three submissions) while six of seven defeats have been finishes, with one knockout and five submissions.
- As is probably evident in the breakdown of his record, Pezao is dangerous on the feet and a bit of a disaster on the floor. He only stuffs 43 percent of takedown attempts and in each of his last four losses, he was taken down at least once and submitted each time.
- He is explosive in his striking with big powerful kicks at distance, while in boxing range he swings from the hip with big hooks – if they find the target, it’s all over. Typically, he prefers for his foe to enter his range before throwing, but he will also go on the attack if necessary.
- De Lima’s last three fights were Stefan Struve (loss – submission), Ben Sosoli (win – knockout) and Alexander Romanov (loss – submission).
- Greene had a good start to his UFC career, winning his first three in the Octagon, but has hit a wall since. His record now stands at 9-5 with seven of his wins coming by stoppage (two knockouts, five submissions). Three of his defeats have been finishes, with two knockouts and a submission.
- The Crochet Boss is a big heavyweight at six-foot-seven with an 80-inch reach. He is a good kickboxer with solid kicks and good footwork while using his reach to keep his opponents at bay. He doesn’t wear damage well, though, becoming less aggressive and pulling up on his strikes for fear of being countered.
- Though he has good footwork, he’s not an overly fast guy and he tends to rely too much on his kicks. He does have strong submission skills, but he hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC.
- Greene’s last three fights were Aleksei Oleinik (loss – submission), Gian Villante (win – submission) and Greg Hardy (loss – knockout).
Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-200) via knockout
Diego Ferreira vs Gregor Gillespie Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Diego Ferreira | +140 |
| Gregor Gillespie | -170 |
Returning to the Octagon for the first time in a year and a half, Gregor “The Gift” Gillespie (-170) looks to rebound from his first professional loss. Looking to slap another loss on Gillespie’s record and return to the win column himself is Diego Ferreira (+140).
- Ferreira is coming off a fight of the night bonus from his loss to Beneil Dariush in February. That defeat ended a six-fight winning streak and his record now stands at 17-3. He has lost once by knockout, while 10 of his wins have been finishes, with three knockouts and seven submissions.
- He has outstanding submission skills and with this being his 12th UFC bout, his striking skills have developed greatly as well. He relies on straight punches for the most part but will throw with reckless abandon when in the pocket.
- While his offensive skills in striking have improved, the defense is still lacking with little head movement or footwork, rather creating space by punching and making his foe retreat.
- Ferreira’s last three fights were Mairbek Taisumov (win – unanimous decision), Anthony Pettis (win – submission) and Beneil Dariush (loss – split decision).
- Gillespie was quickly making a name in the UFC lightweight rankings with six wins to begin his UFC career and was a perfect 13-0 before losing to Kevin Lee. Eleven of his 13 pro wins have been finishes (six knockouts, five submissions). His lone defeat was a knockout.
- The Gift is an outstanding grappler, averaging 7.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. He chains the shots together very well and gives opponents no room to breathe, wearing on them from the moment the fight starts until it ends.
- On the feet, he tends to throw everything at his opponent’s head with hooks, jabs and straights before he goes for his takedown attempt. His incredible conditioning allows him to set a ridiculous pace that eventually breaks his foe.
- Gillespie’s last three fights were Vinc Pichel (win – submission), Yancy Medeiros (win – knockout) and Kevin Lee (loss – knockout).
Prediction: Gregor Gillespie (-170) via decision
Amanda Ribas vs Angela Hill Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | -200 |
| Angela Hill | +160 |
Angela “Overkill” Hill (+160) emerged from back-to-back controversial split decisions to close out 2020 by recording a clear-cut victory in March of this year. Conversely, Amanda Ribas (-200) didn’t have a great start to 2021, seeing her five-fight winning streak ended when she was knocked out in January.
- Ribas’s 12-fight pro career consists of two five-fight winning streaks that were both ended by knockout losses. Seven of her 10 pro wins have been stoppages, with three knockouts and four submissions.
- She is a very well-rounded fighter, averaging 4.25 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.78, and she makes her opponents miss 71 percent of their strike attempts. She also averages 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in each of her five UFC fights.
- Ribas is aggressive from the outset of the fight, constantly stalking forward looking to get into an exchange. She chips away with kicks until her foes engage, when she then can let her hands fly or level change for a takedown.
- Ribas’s last three fights were Randa Markos (win – unanimous decision), Paige VanZant (win – unanimous decision) and Marina Rodriguez (loss – knockout).
- Hill continues to be an active fighter with this being her 15th UFC fight in just over four years. She sports a 13-9 record with seven of her losses coming by decision, including three splits, while five of her 13 wins are by knockout.
- Overkill likes to bring the fight, averaging 5.66 significant strikes per minute but also absorbing 4.98. She has a bit of a herky-jerky style when she closes the distance but typically she will kick first while looking to counter with her hands.
- She chains her strikes together well – often a couple of punches and finishing with a kick. While she stuffs 76 percent of takedowns, she has been brought to the floor at least once in seven of her last 10 fights.
- Hill’s last three fights were Claudia Gadelha (loss – split decision), Michelle Waterson (loss – split decision) and Ashley Yoder (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Amanda Ribas (-185) via decision
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Rodriguez Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Women’s Strawweight – Michelle Waterson | +175 |
| Welterweight – Donald Cerrone | -200 |
| Welterweight – Geoff Neal | -200 |
| Heavyweight – Marcos Rogerio de Lima | -200 |
| Lightweight – Gregor Gillespie | -170 |
| Women’s Strawweight – Amanda Ribas | -200 |
