I went 2-0 in my first MLB first-five inning bets of the year last night, so let's keep the good times rolling.
I'll hit up two more F5 picks for tonight's slate, honing in on a few key pitching matchups I like. So, here are my first two F5 picks for May 1st:
Pick 1: Tigers > Cardinals - First 5 Innings (-116)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 1:10 pm ET
Kenta Maeda completely owns the Cardinals. In 80 career at-bats against current St. Louis hitters, Maeda has held them to just a .187 average and .494 OPS. That's the type of statline that gets you sent to Double-A. Nolan Arenado, a key St. Louis hitter, has just four hits against Maeda in 30 career meetings, good for a .133 batting average.
Maeda is the perfect guy to be betting on a F5 bet, too, because he really only pitches around five innings per outing. He's had a few blowup outings so far this season, but two of his last three outings have been great. Last time out, Maeda pitched five shutout innings.
Last year, the Tigers were also the sixth-most profitable first five innings team in baseball.
Pick 2: Diamondbacks > Dodgers - First 5 Innings (+108)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
Like Maeda to the Cards, Jordan Montgomery daddies the current Dodgers lineup. In 85 career at-bats vs Monty, current Dodgers have a .568 OPS and .200 batting average. So, Los Angeles is going to have a hard time scoring runs against Arizona's starter.
And that's going to be a problem for the Dodgers, because the DBacks are baseball's best first-five innings offense. Arizona is currently scoring 3.55 runs per first five (that's better than the White Sox's complete game offense, ha!). I know the DBacks are playing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he's had a few starts where he's gotten hit around early, and I think tonight's game could be one of those outings.
