2015 Top Prospects: Is Byron Buxton A Bust?

We’ve already dissected the top prospects from 2005 and 2010, so let’s jump to the present.

The ’05 and ’10 lists had plenty of disappointments, but this 2015 crop is one of the best top prospect pools of all time. Even the busts on Baseball America’s 2015 top Major League Baseball prospects list had decent MLB careers and the breakouts are the game’s current superstars:

2015’s Top-10 Prospects

1. 3B/OF Kris Bryant (Cubs, 28.2 career WAR)

Bryant was the mega prospect of the mid-2010s. He introduced the world to service time manipulation and, alongside Anthony Rizzo, became the slugging face of the curse-breaking Cubs.

Coming out of the University of San Diego, scouting reports touted Bryant as a "premium prospect" with a Troy Glaus comparison thrown around. Though Bryant has moved off of third base recently, that scout deserves a raise for the bang-on Glaus comp:

The Vegas native battled injuries and waning defense the last few seasons, but Bryant's first three MLB years alone were enough to warrant this top prospect hype. From 2015 to 2017 he was a two-time All-Star, won a World Series, won the Rookie of the Year, and earned NL MVP in 2016. Bryant hasn't posted a season WAR over 2.5 since 2019, though, so we'll see how the back half of his career goes as a member of the Rockies.

2. OF Byron Buxton (Twins, 21.0 WAR)

This might be the most difficult prospect evaluation of the series to date.

All the tools that made Buxton the second-best prospect in 2015 have translated to the big leagues. He's made an All-Star team, flashed 40+ homer power, 30 stolen base potential, and won a Gold Glove. Buxton is the five-tool outfielder he was touted to become, but he just can’t stay healthy.

Buxton's 162-game average is a 5.1 WAR season with 28 homers, 21 steals, and a .768 OPS. The problem is he's played even over 100 games just once in his eight-year career. If he ever rattles off three or four straight seasons of 140+ games, Buxton will have delivered on this prospect ranking. But for now, the injuries might have him closer to bust than boom.

3. SS Addison Russell (Cubs, 11.3 WAR)

Russell was supposed to be a part of Chicago's hitting future alongside Bryant and Rizzo. He played parts of five seasons at Wrigley Field and even won a ring, but it's hard to see his career as anything other than bust. During the 2018 season, Russell was accused of physical and verbal abuse by his ex-wife. He was suspended for 40 games by Major League Baseball and was released by the Cubs after the 2019 season. Russell has not played in MLB since.

4. SS Carlos Correa (Astros, 40.9 WAR)

Speaking of new cores, few players changed the direction of a franchise as much as Correa and the Astros. Before Correa debuted in Houston in 2015, the Astros had posted six straight losing seasons and hadn’t been to the playoffs since the days of Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman.

In his first season, Correa led the Astros in OPS, won AL Rookie of the Year, and helped pull the team up to an 86-76 and an appearance in the ALDS. The rest, alongside a tiny cheating scandal, is history.

With Correa leading the infield from '15 until 2021, the Astros made the playoffs six times, appearing in the ALCS five times and winning the World Series in 2017. The former top draft choice solidified himself as one of MLB’s top two-way stars in Houston, averaging five WAR per season with a career .837 OPS. However, the rest of Correa’s career will hinge on a mysterious ankle injury, after concerns revealed during physicals cost the shortstop mega contracts with the Giants and Mets last winter.

5. SS Corey Seager (Dodgers, 32.0 WAR)

Following in the footsteps of his brother Kyle, Seager was tapped as a “star in the making who should hit in the middle of the lineup and become one of the best players in baseball in the near future” before his debut in 2015.

The offense was never in doubt, posting a .349 average and 1.004 in 2014 across High- and Double-A. However, most evaluators thought the six-foot-four prospect was doomed to move to third base at the MLB level. But, eight years and one $325 million contract later, and Seager's still picking it as a productive shortstop.

Despite just turning 30, the Rangers infielder looks like he’s just hitting his prime. With the help of MLB’s recent shift ban, Seager put on a clinic in 2023, hitting .327 with 33 homers and a 1.013 OPS. He also won his second World Series MVP Award, leading Texas to the trophy.

6. 1B/OF Joey Gallo (Rangers, 15.1 WAR)

How do we grade the Joey Gallo rollercoaster? In his best season, 2021, Gallo was an All-Star, a Gold Glove outfielder, led the AL in walks, and posted 4.2 WAR. But the very next season Gallo was barely replacement level, hit .160, and was essentially run out of the Bronx by the Yankee faithful.

At this point, it’s hard to tell which Gallo is the outlier. Is he the .351 OBP, three-true outcomes god we saw in '19 and '21? Or is he the strikeout machine that couldn't stick it with the Dodgers and Yanks in '22? We didn’t really get that answer with the Twins last year, so we’re still in wait-and-see mode with Gallo.

7. Lucas Giolito (Nationals, 12.5 WAR)

Giolito was the jewel of Washington’s farm until they traded him as the centerpiece of a 2016 trade for Adam "Spanky" Eaton.

Much like Gallo (though far less extreme) there have been peaks and valleys during Giolito’s first few MLB seasons. During his first season as a full-time starter in 2018, he led the American League in earned runs and walks, posting a 6.13 ERA. But, over the next three years, the righty became a strikeout machine averaging 11.1 Ks per nine and earning Cy Young votes in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

He's taken a step back the last two years, rocking a 4.89 ERA with three different teams over the last 63 starts. Giolito will likely sign a prove-it deal in free agency this winter, and if the righty somehow reverts to his high-strikeout, Cy-candidate form in 2024, he could re-enter free agency destined for a big-time payout.

8. 1B/OF Joc Pederson (Dodgers, 12.1 WAR)

This three-true outcome lefty masher has been a bit more stable than Gallo, but it still took Pederson a while to find his stroke in the big leagues.

In 2015, scouts saw his "future star potential," but the former 11th-round pick was stuck behind a crowded Dodgers outfield that included Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp.

With inconsistent playing time and sporadic performance, Pederson struck out 379 times in his first four seasons. He found his swing in 2018 and 2019, though, smashing 71 homers across the two seasons.

There’s been some up-and-down since, but Pederson’s always shown up for the big games in the postseason: Joctober. While some players struggle against better pitching in the playoffs, Pederson's career average, OBP, and OPS all jump up in his 218 postseason games. In a 2021 World Series run with the Braves, Pederson hit three homers and notched 9 RBI in 15 games.

WELCOME TO JOCTOBER!@yungjoc650 | #ForTheA pic.twitter.com/scosmrCNuN

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 11, 2021

9. Francisco Lindor (Guardians, 42.7 WAR)

Lindor was always going to be a big leaguer. He got on scouts’ radars when he was just eight years old, winning back-to-back Puerto Rican youth team championships, was a top-10 pick in the 2011 draft, and ranked inside Baseball America’s Top 50 prospects every year from 2012 until his MLB debut. But, even this ninth spot doesn’t fully respect how great he became.

After cracking Cleveland's roster halfway through 2015, Lindor was an All-Star who received AL MVP votes and won either the Gold Glove or Silver Slugger every year from 2016 through 2019. If Lindor keeps up his current pace for another five years (until age 33) he'll have more career WAR than Ichiro Suzuki, Vladimir Guerrero, Yogi Berra, and Bobby Bonds.

Lindor remains a two-way star at shortstop since his 2021 trade to the Mets, making this line from a 2015 BA report sting even more for Cleveland fans: "Whenever he does take over at shortstop for the Indians, he should stay there for years to come.”

10. SP Julio Urias (Dodgers, 14.2 WAR)

There was a run there where Urias was arguably the best lefty pitcher in the league. From 2020 through 2022 (73 games started), Urias posted a 40-10 record, a 2.66 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and nearly a strikeout per inning. Just when he was becoming an ace, though, the southpaw threw it all away.

Urias was placed on administrative leave in September 2023, in response to his arrest in a second domestic violence case (the first coming in 2019). He is now a free agent, and it’s hard to see him coming back to the big leagues any time soon.

Biggest Bust: Addison Russel (3rd)

Biggest Breakout: Francisco Lindor (9th)

Should’ve Been On The List: Aaron Judge (53rd)

All stats and WAR calculations are taken from Baseball Reference.