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Trends Pointing to UNDER in Cavaliers-Warriors Finals Rematch

The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are the undisputed two best teams in the NBA, and their back-to-back meetings in the Finals have created some of the best storylines in recent memory. On Christmas Day, the heavyweights will collide for the first time since the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead and allowed the city of Cleveland to celebrate its first championship since 1964.

Shark Bites
  • The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games against the Cavaliers.
  • The UNDER is 11-5-2 in the last 18 meetings between the Warriors and Cavaliers.
  • The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Golden State has historically been an awful bet on Christmas day, as the franchise is a measly 1-4 ATS in their five appearances on December 25. They are, however, 3-2 SU during that span. Stephen Curry and company failed to cover the spread as 7-point chalk vs the Cavs on Christmas in 2015.

When it comes to individual performances, it’s going to be hard to top Kevin Durant - the newcomer to this rivalry. Durant is averaging 31.3 points, five assists and 6.8 rebounds on Christmas Day, while LeBron James (26.2 points, 7.3 assists, 7.2 rebounds), Kyrie Irving (19 points, 2.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds) and Stephen Curry (11.2 points, eight assists, 6.2 rebounds) are behind him.

If you’ve been betting the UNDER in recent Warriors contests, you’re laughing all the way to the bank right now. Heading into the prime-time tilt, the UNDER has paid out in nine straight Warriors games. The O/U has been above 210 in all but one of those affairs.

Christmas games also have a penchant for going UNDER, as the all-time collective record is 26-39-5 on the big day. Don’t be surprised it sportsbooks offshore and in Vegas get a ton of money on the UNDER, so you’d be wise to grab the line earlier rather than later in case it starts to drop.

Another trend pointing towards a low-scoring game: Cleveland’s UNDER past on Christmas. The wine and gold have gone below the closing total in five of their six tilts on December 25.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Those looking to pick the visitors as their prediction to cover in this one found the Golden State Warriors listed as -1.5-point favorites earlier at BetOnline. Meanwhile, the OVER/UNDER total betting line for this game was set at 223.5 at Bovada but may have moved since the betting odds opened.

Odds Shark computer prediction handicapping models run on this game pick a 109-99 victory for the Warriors. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NBA matchups here.

Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Golden State Warriors will look to vanquish their hosts on Sunday, as they are 15-15-1 ATS versus the spread this season, while the Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-13-1 ATS. Golden State is 14-17 against the points scored total betting line, while Cleveland is 15-12-1 versus the line. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Cleveland vs Golden State injuries news.

The Cavaliers - Warriors betting odds would favor the Warriors if the lines were set according to power rankings. Cleveland is rated No. 4 in our latest Odds Shark poll, while the Golden State Warriors sit at No. 1.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively the game matches up Cleveland's No. 4-ranked offense (110.89 PPG) against a Golden State Warriors defense that ranks No. 16 at 104.1 PPG. The Cleveland Cavaliers have averaged 46.25% from the field per game, less than the Golden State Warriors have managed so far this NBA season (49.56% on average).

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Kevin Durant poured in 32 points for Golden State on Friday, as they defeated Detroit 119-113 at The Palace of Auburn Hills.

Cleveland cruised to victory on Friday, running Brooklyn out of the gym and running up a 119-99 score at Quicken Loans Arena.

Betting Trends
  • Golden State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 10 games
  • Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Cleveland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Cleveland's last 16 games
  • Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Golden State home to Toronto, Wednesday, December 28th
Cleveland at Detroit, Monday, December 26th

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