The line for points and rebounds being set at 36.5 is a little too high for my liking, even though Victor Wembanyama is capable of achieving literally anything on the hardwood.
The 7-foot-4 Frenchman hit the UNDER on that number in 51 of his 71 appearances last season, and went below 23 in this combined prop in two of his three meetings versus the Dallas Mavericks. It's the opener for the San Antonio Spurs and expectations are high, but history would suggest this prop won't connect.
The Denver Nuggets went 33-8 SU at Ball Arena last season, tied for the second-best overall record at home, although two of those losses did come at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
In those victories for the Thunder, they scored at least 118 points on each occasion and even blew out the Nuggets by 26 points on Dec. 29, 2023 by a final score of 119-93.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a treasure's trove of guards and wings to make Murray's life miserable, and that was already the case prior to the team trading for Alex Caruso this summer.
Murray also hit the UNDER on 19.5 points all four times versus Oklahoma City in 2023-24 with a true shooting percentage below 50 percent.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets were on complete opposite ends of the OVER/UNDER market this past season, with the Nuggets finishing dead last at 35-47 by reaching the OVER just 42.7 percent of the time. The Thunder, on the other hand, did so 55.7-percent of the time for the fourth-best hit rate across the Association.
All four meetings between these juggernauts also failed to hit the OVER, as well, so I'm looking for that trend to continue here in what's the first action for both teams.
Donte DiVincenzo only registered 10 points in his Minnesota Timberwolves debut on Opening Night against the Los Angeles Lakers, but he did play a healthy 32 minutes off the bench and attempted 11 shots during that stretch - eight of which were 3-pointers.
Minnesota's offense looked out of sorts, and it needs DiVincenzo to be an impact player for the second unit. I project a more prosperous offensive night against a Sacramento Kings squad not known for its defensive intangibles.
When opening the season away from home in a losing effort, and then following that performance up with another road outings, teams cover the spread with a record of 32-19 over the last 15 seasons.
The Minnesota Timberwolves only went 1-2 SU last season against the Sacramento Kings, but they should be a touch more motivated to prevail after a rough night against the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday.
| Last 100 | To Win | ATS | Total O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ Units (Opening) | -$777 | $358 | -$658 |
| $ Units (Closing) | -$498 | $1084 | -$1026 |
| Record (Opening) | 60 - 39 - 1 | 54 - 45 - 1 | 49 - 51 |
| Record (Closing) | 60 - 39 - 1 | 57 - 41 - 2 | 46 - 52 - 2 |
The table above displays our sports betting computer’s picks based on the last 100 NBA games played – it gives basketball bettors a data-backed look into which games and odds could hold some hidden value.
It can be tricky to nail down the “perfect” bet, but our expert predictions will teach you how to bet on basketball matchups with confidence.
Odds Shark Free Computer Picks
How to Use the NBA Computer Picks Table
Following the computer picks blindly is not a surefire way to make gains when betting on NBA action. If anything, it's merely a guide to place bettors in the best position possible to achieve success, whether you're betting moneyline, the spread, or OVER/UNDER.
We use statistical analysis and machine learning projections to create our selections, but don't forget to do your own research to find the best value!
Moneyline
Betting the moneyline means you're picking the winner of the game, no strings attached. If the team you bet on emerges victorious, then so do you.
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | -120 |
| Golden State Warriors | +150 |
In this example, the Los Angeles Lakers are favorites to win the game as their moneyline odds have a minus sign (-) in front of the number. The favorites will have the minus sign present, and the underdogs will have a plus sign (+).
Betting $100 on the Lakers would pay you $180 -- your original $100 bet, plus $80 in winnings. If you bet $100 on the Warriors, since oddsmakers believe they're less likely to win this game, the payout would be $250.
Spread
Betting the spread provides more wiggle room to bettors for games that may appear one-sided on paper. Rather than simply picking the winner like you would with moneyline, you can instead pick the point differential on the scoreboard to give underdogs more of a fighting chance with your wagers.
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | -4.5 (-110) |
| Golden State Warriors | +4.5 (-110) |
In this example, the Lakers are favored to not only win the game against the Warriors, but do so by at least 4.5 points. As a gentle reminder, the minus sign (-) determines the favorite for the game in question.
Should the Lakers win by five points, that would mean Los Angeles "covered the spread," resulting in a win for those who bet in their favor. However, if the Lakers won by four points, that would mean the Warriors "covered the spread" instead.
The -110 betting line enclosed in parentheses is fairly common for spread bets. That is the number bettors would follow to determine potential gains and losses, just like the moneyline.
Totals
An OVER/UNDER bet has nothing to do with which team wins the game. Instead, all that matters is the total combined score for that game and whether it exceeds a preset number established for oddsmakers.
| Team | Total |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | O 240.5 (-110) |
| Golden State Warriors | U 240.5 (-110) |
In this example, oddsmakers have set the total score for the Lakers and Warriors at 240.5 points.
As a bettor, you can select the OVER if you believe the two teams will combine to score more than 240.5 points (241 or more), or bet the UNDER if they'll score fewer than 240.5 points (240 or fewer).
If the set number was a whole number like 240 points, for example, and the two teams combined to score exactly that amount, then the result would be a push and you'd simply get your money back.
Find the Best NBA Picks Today
Our moneyline picks, point spread predictions, and over/under estimates are solid tools to start betting with -- don't glance over other tools though, especially NBA analytics. You can find a collection of resources below ranging from databases to NBA betting tips; browse through them and find the best value on every NBA sportsbook.
