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Consensus picks are one of the betting industry’s best-kept secrets. Except this secret is right out in the open like the time Michigan’s head coach Jim Harbaugh played Screech’s cousin on Saved by the Bell: The New Class. For college football, consensus picks are a useful handicapping tool that can help you make your predictions.
The College Football Consensus
The college football consensus represents the number of wagers being made at a sportsbook on one team or the other (or on the OVER or the UNDER). Sportsbooks express this as percentages to give you a glimpse into how people are betting. Use this information to determine which team you want to bet on, and the type of bet you want to make. You get insight into what’s going on at the sportsbooks when it comes to college football wagers. You can see how the line moves, the point spread, moneyline and the OVER/UNDER odds. These are all impacted by how much the public is betting on the game.
For example, college football consensus picks can show you how sportsbooks are balancing the action by moving the lines. If the line for a game between Oklahoma and Texas is set at -3.5 at the beginning of the week, you can bet that it’s going to move closer to the matchup. As the game approaches, the line could move to -4 or -4.5 before eventually settling on -5.
This means that the public is continuously wagering on the favorite. In this case, if the Longhorns are the favorite, the public is putting money on them to cover the spread. The Sooners would be considered the underdog in this scenario and if the line isn’t moving in their favor, it’s assumed that the public doesn’t think they’ll cover the spread. You can use the consensus data to help you decide if you want to bet Texas to cover or take the underdog.
Fading the Public
With so many games to choose from, betting on college football can provide great returns if you make smart predictions. When you use the NCAA football consensus picks found here, you are taking advantage of very specific data in the form of the public consensus.
Knowing how the public is betting can shape your college football wagers. You don’t have to bet with the public if you don’t agree with the direction they’re betting in. If you decide to bet against the public, it’s called “fading.”
Remember that the house always wins so fading the public can be the best option in many instances. In most instances – you just have to know to pick the right games.
In a theoretical matchup between Northwestern and Purdue, let’s say the public is betting against the Boilermakers. If you agree with the public, it makes sense to take the Wildcats for the win. However, if you think Purdue’s offense has some tricks up its sleeve, then you should fade the public.
There’s no guarantee that the public is going to be right. There’s also no guarantee that the public is going to be wrong, so look at our Consensus Page to figure out which way you want to bet.
Check out Odds Shark’s page on Betting Against the Public to learn more.
College Football Consensus FAQ
What is a college football consensus pick?
A college football consensus pick is the bet that’s favored by the majority of bettors. It’s usually expressed as a percentage of bets provided from the sportsbook to give you a look at what the general public is betting on a given game.
How does a college football consensus pick affect my wager?
For amateur bettors, the public consensus can help you determine what the most popular bet might be on any given contest. However, the public doesn’t consist of betting experts, which means a lot of bets are based on favoritism or name recognition. The money can swing the consensus in a way that might not be the best bet.