The Best Prediction Markets in the USA February 6th, 2026
How does event trading compare to sports betting? If you’re into sports betting or online gambling, chances are you’ve heard about prediction markets.
Sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded in popularity. These platforms let you trade on real-world outcomes, such as elections, economic indicators, and pop culture events.
Sports contracts are one of the top attractions. You can trade on outcomes such as the winner of an upcoming game or event in major sports, or even on future outcomes, like the next Super Bowl champion or NFL MVP.
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Are Prediction Markets Like Gambling?
The prediction market landscape continues to expand and evolve, with a wave of new platforms entering the scene. How does it all work? How does it compare to traditional sports betting or online gambling?
In this complete guide, we’ll get you up to speed in no time and cover everything you need to know about prediction markets in the USA.
What is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is an online platform where participants can buy and sell “shares” on contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Examples include the “Fed decision in September,” where you can predict what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates at its next meeting.
Prediction markets aren’t a new concept. Early incarnations include the Iowa Election Markets, which debuted in 1988 and focused on political events. The Hollywood Stock Exchange was founded in 1996 and provides a venue for trading on movie awards and box-office results.
Most recently, prediction markets have captured mainstream attention for markets tied to the US presidential election. In late 2024, sports event contracts debuted on Crypto.com, with Kalshi following suit in early 2025. Polymarket, a major international platform, has significantly expanded its sports offerings.
One of the key draws of prediction markets is its aggregation of opinions on what will happen. The “wisdom of the crowd” concept suggests that collective forecasting can be more accurate and reliable than the opinion of a thought leader or group of experts. Naturally, the crowd isn’t always correct, but it provides a strong sentiment indicator.
On prediction market platforms, this is reflected in contract pricing. For example, a contract could be trading at 70 cents for “yes” and 30 cents for “no.” This is easily translated into probability: a 70% chance that the result will occur and a 30% chance that it won’t.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
Prediction markets work similarly to stock markets or commodity exchanges. Instead of trading shares of companies or other financial instruments, users are making predictions about the likelihood of a specific event. Contracts are structured as a “yes/no” proposition, and you can trade on the outcomes and prices you find most appealing.
Event Contracts
- The prediction market platform creates an event contract, such as “Will Candidate X win the election?”
- Trading opens, and participants can buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares on the event's outcome.
- The price of shares moves as people buy and sell, reflecting the latest sentiment and information.
- When the event is resolved, winning shares pay $1 each, while losing shares become worthless.
On the technical side, there are key concepts to understand: AMM and CDA.
- Automated Market Makers (AMM): They help power the buying and selling of shares, using liquidity pools and algorithmic pricing instead of a traditional order book.
- Continuous Double Action (CDA): A Trading mechanism that matches buyers and sellers, sharing similarities with peer-to-peer trading.
Leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket employ both, but they differ in a key way. Kalshi is US-regulated and registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). Polymarket is decentralized, using blockchain technology and smart contracts to facilitate trades, and is rolling out access to U.S. users via a waitlist.
In both places, users trade with real money. Popular prediction markets, such as sports, politics, and economics, are very liquid, with trading ramping up whenever new information develops or as popular new contracts are unveiled.
Types of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets come in several varieties, each with unique features designed to fit different kinds of traders and goals. On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, participants trade real money while speculating on the outcome of future events.
Due to CFTC regulation, Kalshi is widely available to US participants. Polymarket, a decentralized platform powered by blockchain technology, is well-known internationally and recently returned to the U.S. after receiving CFTC approval.
Prediction market platforms can also vary in what’s available for trading. For example, PredictIt focuses on politics and attracts significant attention during major elections. Platforms like Manifold and Metaculus are research-focused and don’t incorporate profit-driven trading.
At Kalshi and Polymarket, the menu of options runs much deeper.
liquidity & Trends
Prediction markets aim to aggregate collective insight to create informed probabilities across topics. Participants can trade on what they believe will happen next. Similar to sports betting, some markets are more liquid than others.
For example, NFL games and UFC pay-per-view events attract large volumes at traditional legal US sportsbooks, while lesser-known niche sports attract smaller numbers. At prediction markets, typical headline grabbers include sports, politics, economics, and culture. Other areas may see less attention or ebb and flow based on what’s trending at the moment.
Common Event Contract Types
Below are the key categories you can trade on and examples of the contracts you’ll find at each.
| Event Contracts | Example |
|---|---|
| 🗳️ Politics | Will there be a government shutdown? |
| 🏈 Sports | Super Bowl Champion 2026 |
| 🎭 Culture | Who will win Best Motion Picture at the Oscars? |
| 📈 Crypto | When will Bitcoin hit $100k? |
| 🌪️ Climate | How many inches of snow will fall in NY? |
| 💰 Economics | How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? |
| 🗣️ Mentions | What will Trump say this month? |
| 👩🏻🏫 Companies | Best AI this month? |
| 🏦 Financials | S&P 500 closing price at the end of 2026? |
| 🔬 Tech & Science | Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? |
| 💊 Health | US Bird flu (H5N1) cases this year? |
| 🌍 World | Who will be named in the recently released Epstein files? |
Top Prediction Markets
Polymarket | |
Polymarket is a blockchain-based, decentralized prediction market platform that lets users trade on the outcome of global events using cryptocurrency. The platform offers various markets, including politics, sports, crypto prices, pop culture, and more. Traders buy “Yes” or “No” shares with USDC (a stablecoin), with correct contracts settling at $1 and incorrect calls expiring at zero. Prices update instantly as new trades come in. Polymarket is known for its speed, transparency, and diverse topics. | |
| Available In | Most international markets, recently returning to the US |
| Min Age | 18+ |
| Deposits | USDC through various crypto exchanges |
| Best For | Crypto-savvy users who want to trade on a wide range of global events, including sports, value decentralization, transparency, and variety. |
| Strengths | + Global access (where permitted), with a vast selection of event markets. + Decentralized and transparent. Trades and outcomes are settled via smart contracts. + Real-time pricing and liquidity provided by automated market makers. + No centralized authority controls funds. |
| Weaknesses | – Requires a crypto wallet and some familiarity with blockchain transactions. – Resuming US operations and rolling out access to those on the wait list after receiving the official green light from the CFTC. |
Kalshi | |
Kalshi is a federally regulated event trading exchange in the USA. As the first platform approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi offers legal, real-money trading on various real-world events. Users can buy and sell contracts on questions like “Will the Fed raise rates this month?” Each contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99, with $1 paid for a correct prediction. Fees are transparent and based on the number of contracts and their price. | |
| Available In | All 50 states |
| Minimum Age | 18+ |
| Welcome Bonus | Receive $10 with code: "sharkbonus" |
| Deposits | Bank Transfers (ACH), Wire Transfers, Debit Cards, Cryptos, Google Pay, PayPal, Venmo |
| Best For | US residents seeking a legal, transparent way to trade on the outcome of sporting events, newsworthy topics, and economic indicators. |
| Strengths | + Fully regulated and legal for most US residents. |
| Weakenesses | – Various legal challenges could impact its regulatory status. |
Novig | |
Novig is a peer-to-peer sports prediction market that debuted in 2024. It operates under a sweepstakes model, with users trading directly with one another using the platform's virtual currencies. Unlike a traditional sportsbook, there are no house edges baked in. Instead, the exchange operates on a “no-vig” model, offering a market-driven betting experience across a range of sports and markets. | |
| Available In | AK, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NM, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY, and DC. |
| Min Age | 21+ |
| Welcome Bonus | Spend $5 Get $50 Novig Cash |
| Banking | Purchases: Credit or Debit Card (Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Discover), Bank Transfer (Aeropay, Trustly), Apple Pay, Google Pay, Crypto (Coinflo for Stablecoin Payments) Withdrawals: Debit Card (Visa, Mastercard), Bank Transfer (Aeroplay, Trustly), Venmo |
| Best For | Sports bettors in available states who are looking for market-driven pricing, peer-to-peer trading, and a sweepstakes environment. |
| Strengths | + No baked-in-house edge. |
| Weaknesses | – No real-money trading. Virtual currencies only, but prize redemptions are available. |
PredictIt | |
PredictIt is a long-running, research-focused prediction market specializing in U.S. political events. Operating under an amended CFTC no-action letter, users can buy and sell shares based on election outcomes, policy decisions, and other political developments. The platform is popular with academics, journalists, and political enthusiasts who want to gauge public sentiment and profit from their political insights. Users can invest up to $850 per question, with contracts between $0.01 and $0.99. Fees are charged on profits and withdrawals. | |
| Available | All 50 States |
| Min Age | 18+ |
| Banking | Deposits: Credit Card, PayNearMe Withdrawals: ACH transfer, checks |
| Best For | Political followers, data enthusiasts, and traders looking to participate in legal, real-money markets focused on US politics and policy. |
| Strengths | + Focused exclusively on U.S. political and policy events. |
| Weaknesses | – Investment caps limit maximum profits per market. |
Other Prediction Market Platforms To Know
Several new prediction market platforms have debuted in recent months. The list is only expected to continue to grow. Here are some of the most notable names that have entered the scene.
- Underdog Predict: The popular DFS app unveiled its prediction market offering in September 2025 via a partnership with Crypto.com. Sports event trading is available to users in 25+ states.
- Fanatics Markets: The first major U.S. sportsbook to launch a prediction market platform in December 2025. Fanatics Markets is available in 24 states and offers trading on sports, finance, and more.
- DraftKings Predictions: Launched in December 2025, DraftKings Predictions is live in 38 states. Financial contracts are among the offerings, with sports contract trading also available in 17 of those markets.
- FanDuel Predicts: Also debuting in December 2025, FanDuel Predicts launched initially in five states, with plans for more to come. You can trade on financial and economic outcomes, plus sports, in non-sports betting states.
Prediction Market Platforms in Real Life
Beyond trading for fun or profit potential, prediction markets also have real-world use cases. They can help forecast election results by aggregating overall sentiment, guide businesses and investors on economic and financial data, and even assist with scientific research by pooling collective knowledge.
Prediction markets offer a wide variety of ways to engage with future events. While forecasting results for potential profit can be entertaining, there’s more to see beyond the gaming aspect. They’re also considered valuable resources for forecasting, decision-making, and tapping into the collective intelligence of a global community.
Prediction Market Odds & Trading Angles
Prediction markets move fast, and edge comes from understanding pricing, timing, and shifting narratives. Our Prediction Market Picks, Trends & Trading Angles page tracks the most active markets across sports, politics, economics, and major news events, highlighting mispriced contracts and emerging opportunities.
Check in regularly for curated picks, market trends, and actionable trading ideas based on where real money is moving.
Find today's top picks and odds at prediction markets
Prediction Markets vs. Stock Markets
Prediction markets share some features with stock market trading, but there are nuances to understand. The table below gives you a side-by-side comparison of key aspects of both.
Category | Prediction Markets | Stock Markets |
|---|---|---|
Purpose | Forecast the outcome of specific events. | Investing in companies by acquiring shares. |
Structure | Trade contracts tied to outcomes. | Buy and sell shares of listed equities. |
Time Horizon | Clear expiration dates tied to the contract resolution. | Can buy, hold, and sell at any time. |
Price Reflection | The implied probability of an outcome occurring. | The current market value of the company’s shares. |
In both cases, participants trade in hopes of making a profit, a form of speculation. Hedging is prevalent in both spots as well. For example, stock market investors can hedge risks with futures and options.
Prediction market traders can offset positions and mitigate risk by purchasing other event contracts. When trading on either, the listed prices of contracts and stocks essentially aggregate collective knowledge of where things currently stand.
Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting
Prediction market trading also shares some similarities with traditional sports betting. At the former, you can buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a game or future event, while the latter offers a vast selection of wager types, including spreads and player props.
Sports betting is generally geared toward entertainment and the potential for profits. Those aspects are present in prediction markets too, but they’re also touted for the information value provided by aggregating the collective opinions of market participants.
However, there are differences, including the market structure and pricing. The table below covers the key points you need to know.
Feature | Prediction Markets | Sports Betting |
|---|---|---|
Market Structure | Peer-to-peer trading, open order book, and automated market makers | Bookmaker sets odds, with bets placed against the house |
Types of Events | Wide range, including politics, finance, sports, and pop culture | Mostly sports and select events |
Pricing | Prices reflect the market's consensus on the probability of an outcome. | The bookmaker sets odds and may adjust them based on volume and developments. |
Flexibility | Can trade in and out of contracts before the event resolves | Usually, you must hold bets until the event ends and the wager is resolved |
Regulation | Varies – Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, others may be unregulated or restricted | Strict regulations are in place in states that have legal sports betting. |
Advantages & Challenges of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets offer several unique benefits, but no system or trading mechanism is entirely devoid of criticism. Here are the key pros and cons of prediction markets you must know.
- Aggregation of collective intelligence, capturing insights from many participants
- Provide real-time, dynamic updates as new information emerges
- Incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards
- Diverse and versatile, covering a wide range of topics and industries
- Often show better accuracy than traditional polls or expert panels
- Useful tools for risk management and hedging decisions
- Potentially susceptible to manipulation by large or well-funded traders
- Face regulatory uncertainty and could be subject to potential legal restrictions
- Vulnerable to groupthink and herd behavior, reducing prediction quality
- Low liquidity in certain markets can distort prices and impact trading
- Raise ethical concerns, especially around betting on sensitive or harmful topics
- Behavioral and cognitive biases may influence participants
Legal and Regulatory Considerations
Prediction markets operate in legal landscapes that vary across countries. In the U.S., prediction markets like Kalshi are regulated federally by the CFTC as derivatives markets, allowing them to offer event contracts nationwide legally. Globally, regulatory approaches differ widely. Some countries embrace prediction markets, and others categorize them as gambling.
This differs from traditional gambling in the US. Regulation and licensing happen at the state level. There are varied restrictions by market, but many states share many common regulatory approaches. To date, some form of sports betting is available in 39 states and Washington, DC, with online wagering permitted in 31 markets.
On the regulatory front of prediction markets, notable developments include ongoing legal challenges over jurisdiction and state gambling laws. States, including New Jersey and Nevada, have sent Kalshi cease-and-desist letters, arguing that the platform offers unregulated sports wagering.
Ongoing litigation is in progress in states including Maryland. Meanwhile, prediction market observers patiently await further clarity and guidance from the CFTC. Add it all up, and it’s a complex and fluid situation subject to change. Kalshi’s prediction markets are currently available in all 50 US states.
Profits from prediction markets are generally treated as ordinary income for taxation purposes. Traders are advised to keep records of their accounts' ins and outs, as well as a history of trades, both wins and losses. Due to the potential complexity, consulting with a tax professional well-versed in trading markets is highly recommended.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the USA?
The legality of prediction markets in the U.S. depends on the platform and your location. The CFTC regulates Kalshi and operates legally under federal oversight. This federal regulation allows Kalshi to offer event contracts nationwide, distinguishing it from traditional gambling markets. It’s currently available for traders in all 50 US states.
Other platforms, such as Polymarket and various blockchain-based markets, face restrictions on U.S. users due to a lack of clear regulatory approval. Additionally, some states may impose regulations or bans on certain types of event trading. Before signing up to trade and participating, review your state’s laws and the platform’s terms.
Why Are Prediction Markets Gaining Popularity?
Previously, prediction markets captured a ton of attention around the time of the US presidential election. Once the results were in the books, they fell into the background until the next cycle kicked into gear. Today, that’s no longer the case.
The introduction of sports has undoubtedly contributed to the massive spike in popularity for prediction markets. However, there are other reasons that those who are into forecasting have been perking up and taking notice, including:
- Market variety: Beyond sports, you can explore other markets as well. You can explore different interests, learn about new ones, and see what’s hot and trending by being involved with prediction markets.
- Peer-to-peer: Instead of betting against the house, which has a built-in edge and tends to do pretty well, you’re trading with other market participants, and can even get a sense of what they’re thinking by watching price moves and open interest.
- Trading flexibility: You can choose “yes” or “no” on an outcome and have the flexibility to enter and exit positions before the contract settles. This allows you to lock in profits and limit losses as the market evolves.
- Transparency: Pricing is clearly laid out and reflects the collective probability of an event's likelihood. There are no complex calculations to determine the vig, as trading fees are based on the price and the number of contracts.
- Trending topics: If you like to be in the know, prediction markets are a great place to check out. When a topic captures the attention of the masses, there’s often a contract available to trade on what will happen.
- Collective knowledge: The “wisdom of the crowd” is one of the biggest draws. While probabilities and likelihood do not guarantee what will happen, prediction markets have a solid track record compared to traditional polls and pundits.
- Profit potential: You can profit via successful trades when you make the correct calls. As you gain experience trading prediction markets, you can also learn to spot mispriced opportunities and try to lock in winnings before the rest of the market catches up.
Prediction markets have soared in popularity, and the momentum shows no signs of slowing.
Risks and Responsible Trading
As with any form of wagering and trading, there are risks involved in participating in prediction markets. Here are some of the key factors you need to know.
- There are no guarantees in prediction market trading, regardless of the overall market perception or the likelihood of an outcome. You can lose your entire stake, so only trade with funds you can afford to lose.
- Not all platforms are regulated or insured. As with any form of trading or wagering that becomes popular, you can expect to see new entrants looking to capture attention. Stick to the platforms that you can verify as legitimate.
- There are concerns that large traders can manipulate markets or that inside information can influence pricing. This risk is not exclusive to prediction markets, but something to be mindful of when you spot sudden price moves or volume jumps.
Treat prediction markets as entertainment or an enjoyable side activity for the best approach. They’re not meant to be a primary investment strategy or source of long-term income.
List of Prediction Markets
| Prediction Market | Platform Type | Founded | HQ / Jurisdiction | Currency / Token | Focus | Context | Best For | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Electronic Markets | Regulated / Academic | 1988 | US (University of Iowa) | USD (capped) | Politics, elections | University-run, capped stakes for research. | Academic research, political science | Active |
| PredictIt | Regulated / Real-Money | 2014 | New Zealand / US | USD | Politics, policy | US-only, $850 per market cap, legal issues with CFTC. | Small-stake political bettors | Active (restricted) |
| Kalshi | Regulated / Real-Money | 2021 | US (CFTC regulated) | USD | Politics, finance, sports, entertainment | First federally regulated prediction exchange. | Pro traders, hedge seekers | Active |
| Polymarket | Decentralized / Crypto | 2020 | Global (offshore) | USDC (Polygon) | Politics, culture, finance | Popular crypto market, active globally. | Crypto speculators, global bettors | Active (non-U.S.) |
| Augur | Decentralized / Crypto | 2018 | Global (Ethereum-based) | ETH, REP token | Any event (custom markets) | Fully decentralized; low current user activity. | Web3 developers, DeFi users | Active (low usage) |
| Manifold | Reputation / Play-Money | 2021 | US (community-run) | Play currency (Mana points) | General predictions | Gamified prediction market using play money for reputation. | Hobby forecasters, communities | Active |
| Metaculus | Reputation / Play-Money | 2015 | US (non-profit) | Play points / rep | Science, tech, policy | Strong community for long-term forecasting. | Futurists, researchers | Active |
| Good Judgment Open | Reputation / Play-Money | 2015 | US | Play points | Politics, policy, science | Open arm of the Good Judgment Project (superforecasters). | Policy analysts, forecasters | Active |
| SciCast | Reputation / Play-Money | 2014 | US (George Mason University) | Play points | Science, tech | Research-focused; later discontinued. | STEM researchers | Inactive |
| iPredict | Regulated / Real-Money | 2008 | New Zealand | NZD | Politics | Shut down in 2016 due to AML concerns. | Historical study | Inactive |
| XO Market | Reputation / Play-Money | 2013 | Unknown | Custom play currency | General | Users created their own tokens/markets; never scaled. | Experimental forecasters | Inactive |
| Azuro Protocol | Decentralized / Crypto Infra | 2022 | Global (Polygon infra) | USDT, MATIC | Sports | Protocol powering dApps like DexWin. | Web3 sports bettors | Active |
| Bookmaker / DexWin | Decentralized / Crypto | 2023 | Global | USDT | Sports | Web3 sportsbook-like dApps. | Sports bettors, DeFi gamblers | Active |
| PlotX | Decentralized / Crypto | 2020 | Global | ETH, MATIC | Crypto asset prices | Cross-chain DeFi prediction on token prices. | Crypto traders | Active |
| Better Fan / Duel Duck / Moonopol / Hedgehog / Projection Finance / SanR.app / Oriole Insights | Decentralized / Crypto dApps | 2022–2024 | Global | Various (ETH, USDT, MATIC) | Sports, finance, games | Collection of niche Web3 prediction apps. | Web3 gamers, niche users | Active (varies) |
| Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) | Virtual / Specialty | 1996 | US | Virtual credits (Hollywood Dollars) | Movies, Oscars | Simulated 'moviestock' market. | Movie buffs, entertainment fans | Active |
| The simExchange | Virtual / Specialty | 2006 | US | Virtual currency | Video games | Virtual market for predicting video game sales; abandoned. | Gamers, analysts | Inactive |
| ForecastEx | Regulated / Real-Money | 2024 | US | USD | Wide variety - economics, financial, elections, sports, etc. | Operated by Interactive Brokers | Experienced traders | Active |
| Underdog Prediction Picks | Regulated / Real-Money | 2025 | US | USD | Sports | New platform from a leading DFS operator in partnership with Crypto.com | DFS players looking to trade prediction markets | Active |
| Fanatics Markets | Regulated / Real-Money | 2025 | US | USD | Sports, finance | The first prediction market platform launched by a major US sports betting brand | Sports bettors interested in prediction markets | Active |
| DraftKings Predictions | Regulated / Real-Money | 2025 | US | USD | Sports, finance | Launched in 38 states, with sports contracts available in 17. | Sports bettors interested in prediction markets | Active |
| FanDuel Predicts | Regulated / Real-Money | 2025 | US | USD | Sports, finance | Partnered with CME Group. Limited states at launch | Sports bettors interested in prediction markets | Active |
Tips for Responsible Event Contract Trading
Whether you’re trading prediction markets, wagering on sports, or in any other case where you’re putting funds at risk in hopes of making a profit, the principles of responsible gaming apply. Lean on the tips below to keep things entertaining while participating responsibly.
- Have a strict budget and stick to it, never trading more than you can afford to lose. There are no guarantees, and losing your entire stake is absolutely possible.
- Stick to legal and regulated platforms with protections for your funds and data. Nothing can justify putting either at risk, as the big players offer more than enough markets to trade.
- Diversify your trades. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Allocate your funds to your interests while staying within your budget.
- Avoid chasing losses. Losing trades are not fun, but it’s par for the course in prediction markets and elsewhere. Chasing those losses to recoup rarely ends well, and could be a sign that you need a refresher on responsible practices.
Prediction Market Banking Methods
Prediction market banking methods vary by platform. For example, Polymarket transactions are processed in USDC, while PredictIt offers limited options for moving money in and out of your account. Over at Kalshi, there’s a broader range of methods to choose from.
| Deposits | Withdrawals |
|---|---|
| Debit Cards | Debit Cards |
| Bank Transfers | Bank Transfers |
| Crypto Transfers | Crypto |
| Wire Transfers | |
| Google Pay | |
| PayPal | |
| Venmo |
There are no fees for deposits and withdrawals via bank or wire. Kalshi doesn’t directly charge for crypto transactions, but there may be fees from third-party payment processors. There’s a 2% fee for debit card deposits and a $2 charge for debit card withdrawals.
Prediction Market Bonuses
For now, bonuses are an area where prediction markets lag behind sports betting and other forms of legal online gaming. Platforms like Kalshi have welcome offers for new players, but don’t expect to find things bettors are accustomed to getting at sportsbooks, such as bonus bets or odds boosts.
Recap & Takeaways
Prediction markets offer something different to those interested in forecasting outcomes. You can buy and sell contracts on various events, allowing you to profit from your knowledge and expand your horizons via diverse offerings.
The introduction of sports event contracts has led to even more mainstream adoption, and that shows no signs of slowing down. Platforms like Kalshi have expanded their offerings, innovating with single-game markets and looking to expand their menus in the future.
For those looking to get into prediction market trading, stick to the regulated platforms available in your area. Additionally, remember to participate responsibly and treat it as a source of information and entertainment. As with other forms of trading, there are no guarantees.
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FAQs About Prediction Markets
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market that operates legally in the US, but has faced challenges from individual states that remain unresolved.
Other popular real-money and crypto-based prediction markets may be restricted or not authorized for US users. Always verify a platform’s legal status before participating.
How accurate are prediction markets?
Prediction markets often provide highly accurate forecasts by aggregating information from many participants. They have outperformed polls in some cases, especially for elections and major events.
However, it’s important to remember that likelihood is not a guarantee of what’s going to happen.
Can I make money on prediction markets?
Yes, users can profit by correctly predicting outcomes on real-money platforms. The potential for gains depends on the accuracy of predictions and market competition.
Traders should always remember to adhere to responsible gaming principles.
What’s the difference between betting and trading on prediction markets?
Betting usually means placing a fixed-odds wager with a bookmaker, while prediction market trading involves buying and selling contracts whose prices reflect event probabilities.
In both cases, there’s profit potential on correct calls, and the risk of a complete loss of stake when your forecast is incorrect.
How are winnings taxed?
Winnings from real-money prediction markets are generally treated as ordinary income and subject to taxes.
Consulting with a tax professional is highly recommended.
