2020 March Madness Odds: Super Early Look into the Future

There is just one final weekend ahead of conference tournaments and many teams are jockeying for seeding in their respective conferences, which ultimately helps in the NCAA Tournament seedings. As it has been all season and remains as we near the end, Duke is the heavy favorite at +210 to win the national championship in just over a month.

Bovada has Duke as the +210 favorite followed by Gonzaga and Virginia at +800, Kentucky at +900 and North Carolina and Tennessee at +1100 to round out the top six teams on the oddsboard.

When will Zion Return for Duke?

The Blue Devils will be heading to Chapel Hill this Saturday to tip off against their rivals, the North Carolina Tar Heels, and will likely be without projected first overall NBA draft pick Zion Williamson. The six-foot-seven forward was injured in the first minute of the game against UNC on February 20 and hasn’t been on the court since, and is doubtful to play in the rematch this Saturday.

Duke has gone 3-2 SU in the five games without Williamson, including the 88-72 home loss to then-No. 8 UNC, and has averaged 75.4 ppg, which is nine points below its season average of 84.6. Most recently, Duke narrowly edged lowly Wake Forest 71-70 on March 5. Coach Mike Krzyzewski says that Zion should be good for the beginning of the ACC tournament, but I would be hesitant about whether he’s 100 percent and would be wary of laying a wager at +210 with these question marks.

UNC is taking care of business down the stretch

I haven’t written much about the Tar Heels for a futures bet because I really couldn’t get a good gauge of them. Some nights UNC looks like one of the best teams in the nation, while on other nights it would look a little flat. However, since a 69-61 loss at home to Virginia on February 11, UNC has been on a tear, winning six straight games by an average margin of 15.83, with only two of the victories coming by fewer than 10 points.

The big issue for me about the Tar Heels has been their defense, which is surrendering 73.1 points per game this year. That being said, I thought holding Florida State to just 59 points on February 23 and Duke to 72 showed a lot of improvement. Additionally, senior Cameron Johnson is chipping in 21.3 ppg since the Virginia loss, over four ppg more than his season average. If UNC can continue to work out the kinks on defense, a +1100 wager isn’t a bad play for a team that appears to be peaking.

Virginia flexing offensive muscles

Virginia is having a masterful season, sporting a 27-2 record ahead of its season finale against Louisville on Saturday. Its only two defeats have come against Duke (with Zion Williamson), by two at Cameron Indoor Stadium and by 10 at John Paul Jones Arena. The defense has been talked about over and over again, leading the nation by allowing just 54.1 points per game (51.6 at home).

Recently, the offense has come around as the Cavs have poured in 77.67 ppg over their last three games, which is five points better than their season average. They put on an absolute clinic from beyond the arc at Syracuse on March 4. Virginia matched a school record with 18 triples in that game, led by Kyle Guy, who shot 8-for-10 from long range.

This should be a warning call to the rest of the teams in the nation that if you give Virginia space beyond the arc, it will bury treys with ease and run up the score. No surprise that the Cavs are tied with Gonzaga at +800 for the second-best odds – they are a great wager.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for the college hoops national championship:

The regular season has just a week and a half left and under five games remaining for the majority of teams, with conference tournaments looming a mere two and a half weeks away. Duke, as it has been all season, remains the favorite, but for the first time all year, its odds took a drop, falling from +160 seven days ago to +210 today. Meanwhile, Gonzaga, a team that beat Duke, has emerged with the second-best odds at +850.

Bovada has Duke leading the way at +210 followed by Gonzaga at +850, Kentucky at +900, Virginia at +950 and North Carolina and Tennessee at +1100 to round out the top teams on the oddsboard.

Tread Cautiously with Duke without Zion

Many futures bettors became very anxious when they saw Duke’s superstar and projected No. 1 NBA draft pick Zion Williamson blow out his shoe and injure his right knee in the first minute against UNC last Wednesday. The Blue Devils looked out of sorts for the remainder of that game, getting thumped 88-72 by the rival Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Not long after, Duke fell 77-72 on the road to Virginia Tech on February 26.

In the three games without Zion, including the UNC loss, the Blue Devils are scoring just 73 points per game, a dozen points below their season average of 85. We don’t know what the extent of this injury actually is – we’ve heard that it’s a mild knee sprain – but if this is anything that’s going to linger with that big man, those +210 odds are a big stay-away for me.

Zags continue to climb the oddsboard

Although Gonzaga’s odds didn’t change from last week to this at +850, all the teams around the Bulldogs fell and they moved from fifth on the oddsboard up to second. Additionally, with the Tennessee loss to Kentucky a couple of weeks ago and Duke falling to UNC, the Zags are now the No. 1 team in the AP poll, returning to the top for the first time since early December. The Bulldogs fell from the top spot after dropping consecutive games against then-No. 7 Tennessee and then-No. 12 UNC in mid-December.

It’s really difficult to judge how good the Bulldogs are, though. They do have a narrow 89-87 win over Duke in the Maui Invitational in late November, but then dropped those two aforementioned games against Tennessee and UNC. Since then, Gonzaga has rattled off 18 straight wins, none against a ranked opponent. On paper, +850 seems like great value for the Zags, but we won’t know how they’ve progressed from those losses until the tournament actually begins, and by then their odds may fall sharply.

Kentucky’s Odds May Rise after This Weekend

Kentucky hosted then-No. 1 Tennessee on February 16 and handed the Vols an 86-69 defeat. Can the Wildcats pull off a similar outcome Saturday when they visit the Thompson-Boling Arena? Kentucky has had a very interesting season, opening the year against Duke and getting thumped 118-84, suffering its other three losses by two or fewer points, and posting four wins over ranked opponents, including the aforementioned victory over then-No. 1 Tennessee.

The Wildcats don’t blow many teams away in one particular statistical category, but rather they are a well-balanced squad that can find a way to win in high- or low-scoring games. Kentucky ranks 48th in points scored per game while being rated as the 28th-best defense, surrendering 64.9 ppg. I have been carrying the Kentucky flag for the last few weeks, getting a futures bet on the Wildcats at +2000 following their 77-75 loss at Alabama to open SEC play. I think at +900 they are still providing good value.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for the college basketball national championship:

There are just over three weeks remaining in the college hoops schedule and there’s a new No. 1 in the AP poll that now coincides with the top team on the oddsboard and that’s the Duke Blue Devils. As it has been all season, Duke is the favorite at +160, climbing from +170 last week.

Bovada has Duke on top at +170 followed by Tennessee at +750, Kentucky at +775, Virginia at +800 and Gonzaga and Michigan at +850 to round out the top teams on the oddsboard.

Duke needs to take Care of Business Down the Stretch

The Blue Devils have had two hiccups this season, falling 89-87 in the Maui Invitational final against then-No. 3 Gonzaga and suffering a stunning 95-91 overtime upset loss at home vs Syracuse in mid-January. Outside of those two games, Duke has dismantled teams, with 19 of its 23 wins coming by double-digit margins, including an 81-71 road win over then-No. 3 Virginia.

With just six games remaining, the Blue Devils are in the driver’s seat to roll into the national tournament. However, two of those final six games are against archrival UNC, including a clash at the Dean Smith Center to close out the season. I still don’t believe a team should be that much of a favorite in a grueling tournament, but I don’t see us getting any better value on the Blue Devils between now and the beginning of the tournament.

Did Tennessee Show its true colors?

I have flip-flopped on my feelings toward the Vols this season, part of me saying the reason they were No. 1 was because of their terrific win streak and a three-point win over then-No. 1 Gonzaga in early December. However, when I watched them play, they moved the ball around efficiently and moved opposing defenses around like chess pieces leading to easy lay-ins. But the biggest red flag for me was that Tennessee had the 43rd-toughest strength of schedule and during its 19-game winning streak, only one game was against a ranked foe.

That changed last Saturday when Tennessee played its first ranked opponent since December 9, paying a visit to Rupp Arena to tip off against the No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats. The Volunteers got a rude awakening in that game, getting thumped 86-69, and promptly fell from No. 1 to No. 5 in the AP poll. They followed that up with a 12-point win over Vanderbilt but chipped in just 22 points in the second half, not the response I was looking for. Tennessee remains second on the oddsboard at +750 and I would avoid it at all costs.

Kentucky continues to climb

A few weeks ago, you could have got Kentucky at +2000, following its 77-75 loss at Alabama to open SEC play, but now those odds have free-fallen to +775 and it sits third on the oddsboard. The reason I like the Wildcats more than the Vols is that they have had a tougher strength of schedule (23rd) with five wins over ranked opponents, including the win over Tennessee.

Kentucky is very well-rounded, gets the majority of its offense from inside the arc and absolutely punishes opponents on the glass. The Wildcats are 24th in the country in offensive rebounding, including No. 7 at home. Additionally, they have a good defense, restricting opponents to 40.6 percent shooting (29th) and allowing just 65.3 ppg (32nd). Kentucky has to visit Thompson-Boling Arena in early March. That could be a statement game.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for the 2018-19 college basketball national championship:

Odds as of February 20 at Bovada

Conference tournaments are less than a month away, we are in crunch time and oddsmakers have adjusted the odds, tightening up the true contenders for the 2019 national championship. As it has been all year long, Duke tops all others on the oddsboard at +170, but No. 1 Tennessee has closed the gap and is providing much more value at +750.

Bovada has Duke leading the way at +170 followed by Tennessee at +750, Kentucky and Virginia at +800 and Michigan at +850 to round out the top five teams on the oddsboard.

Are we seeing Holes in Duke’s game?

Over the last week, we have seen a high and low of Duke, but the results remained the same and that was the team walking away with a victory. The Blue Devils went into John Paul Jones Arena and grabbed an 81-71 triumph over then-No. 3 Virginia to complete the season sweep over the Cavaliers.

However, three days later, Duke trailed by 23 points with under 10 minutes to go at then-No. 16 Louisville before mounting a massive comeback for the 71-69 triumph. Two things we learned from that: First, we can never count out the Blue Devils, because when they get hot, they are unstoppable. Second, the Cardinals used good ball movement to get the Blue Devils out of position for good looks at the rim, as they had 17 assists in the game.

I’ve been saying the value on Duke is not worth it at +170, but it is scary to think that when the Blue Devils were down and out, they came back from the dead to earn a victory, proving just how dangerous they are. It’s apparent that defense isn’t the way to beat the Blue Devils but rather trying to match them basket for basket in a high-scoring affair like Syracuse and Gonzaga did.

Gonzaga has been tearing through the WCC

Should there be more attention paid to Gonzaga? The Bulldogs were the first team to top Duke, and the only team to beat a fully healthy Blue Devils team, in the Maui Invitational final. That being said, the Bulldogs had a hiccup in mid-December, dropping back-to-back games, first against then-No. 7 Tennessee in the Air Force Reserve Classic at Talking Stick Resort Arena 76-63 and then at then-No. 12 North Carolina 103-90.

Those are the only two defeats Gonzaga has suffered this year and it has rattled off 14 straight wins since then, though all of them have come against unranked foes. It leads the nation with 91.4 points per game, four points better than second-place North Carolina. On the defensive side of the ball, it has restricted foes to 65.3 points per game, the 34th-fewest in college basketball. The Bulldogs shoot well both inside and outside the arc and I think at +900 there’s some real value here.

Is Houston a threat to win it all?

I have been getting a lot of questions on the value of Houston as it sits No. 9 in the AP poll and holds a 23-1 record at the time of this article. The Cougars sit 17th on the oddsboard with odds of +6500 so why isn’t everyone hammering that line? I think there’s a couple of factors keeping people away from them. Most notably, their strength of schedule ranks 86th and they have only had two games against ranked opponents, both of which are no longer ranked.

The defense has been very stout for Houston, which ranks fifth in the nation by limiting opponents to just 60.7 points per game and is second in opponent shooting percentage at 36.4. The Cougars offense ranks 99th at 75.2 points per game, but their field-goal percentage of 44 percent is only 180th in the country.

I think Houston is a strong team that may earn a win or two in the NCAA Tournament, but I have a hard time seeing them shutting down one of those upper-echelon offenses and although +6500 looks juicy, I would recommend you stay away.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for the 2018-19 college basketball national championship:

Odds as of February 14 at Bovada

The college hoops schedule is in the final month of play and we are starting to get a clearer picture of the teams that may end up competing in the March Madness. I’ve outlined teams that have the best odds (still Duke at +170) and provide the best value (Kentucky +900), and now I’m going to focus my attention on teams that you should fade when the national tournament begins.

Bovada has Duke still the favorite at +170 followed by Michigan and Tennessee at +750, Virginia at +800 and Kentucky at +900 to round out the top five teams on the oddsboard to win the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas Jayhawks (+1600)

When the preseason AP Top 25 was released, it was the Kansas Jayhawks topping the list. They were overtaken by Duke after its terrific start to the season but returned to the top spot after then-No. 1 Gonzaga fell to Tennessee and UNC in December. However, the Jayhawks have fallen down to 13th this week and following a loss at Kansas State on February 5, I expect them to tumble further.

The reason I don’t see Kansas pushing for a national championship this year is its inability to win on the road. The Jayhawks have played 11 games away from home this season, including neutral-site games, and have a 5-6 SU record, going 1-6 SU in their true road games. Kansas pours in 80.92 ppg at the Allen Fieldhouse, scoring fewer than 80 points in just five of its 12 games there. However, it scores just 66.57 ppg in true road games, topping 70 points only twice in those seven games. In neutral-site contests, it averaged 79.75 ppg with half the games going under 80 points.

Although the Jayhawks swept their four neutral-site games, three of them against then- or now-ranked teams, I just think they are going to struggle away from home in the tournament and at +1600 I really don’t see any value there.  

Virginia Tech (+6000)

Virginia Tech has been ranked in the AP poll all season, reaching as high as ninth last month, and is currently ranked 11th, while sitting 16th on the oddsboard. At +6000, the Hokies seem like a decent wager, especially after they dismantled then-No. 23 NC State in front of its home fans 47-24 – that’s not the halftime score, that was the final. However, that was just the second win over a ranked opponent, dropping three other chances, including most recently falling 72-64 at home to then-No. 16 Louisville.

The reason I wouldn’t hitch my wagon to the Hokies is they haven’t proved they can step up in big games. In three contests against teams ranked higher than 20th, Virginia Tech is 0-3 with an average losing margin of 17, including losing by 22 at then-No. 4 Virginia. The Hokies are surrendering an average of 10 more points per game in ACC play compared to its non-conference schedule. They are also scoring 11 fewer points per game in conference play compared to non-ACC competition.

I think that the Hokies are a good team that could potentially make a Sweet 16 appearance, but I think when they tip off against tougher competition, they just aren’t at that level and will get rolled as they did against Virginia and UNC.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to win the 2019 college hoops national championship:

Odds as of February 6 at Bovada