March Madness Odds: It's Getting Tighter at the Top

The college hoops schedule is in the final month of play and we are starting to get a clearer picture of the teams that may end up competing in the March Madness. I’ve outlined teams that have the best odds (still Duke at +170) and provide the best value (Kentucky +900), and now I’m going to focus my attention on teams that you should fade when the national tournament begins.

Bovada has Duke still the favorite at +170 followed by Michigan and Tennessee at +750, Virginia at +800 and Kentucky at +900 to round out the top five teams on the oddsboard to win the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas Jayhawks (+1600)

When the preseason AP Top 25 was released, it was the Kansas Jayhawks topping the list. They were overtaken by Duke after its terrific start to the season but returned to the top spot after then-No. 1 Gonzaga fell to Tennessee and UNC in December. However, the Jayhawks have fallen down to 13th this week and following a loss at Kansas State on February 5, I expect them to tumble further.

The reason I don’t see Kansas pushing for a national championship this year is its inability to win on the road. The Jayhawks have played 11 games away from home this season, including neutral-site games, and have a 5-6 SU record, going 1-6 SU in their true road games. Kansas pours in 80.92 ppg at the Allen Fieldhouse, scoring fewer than 80 points in just five of its 12 games there. However, it scores just 66.57 ppg in true road games, topping 70 points only twice in those seven games. In neutral-site contests, it averaged 79.75 ppg with half the games going under 80 points.

Although the Jayhawks swept their four neutral-site games, three of them against then- or now-ranked teams, I just think they are going to struggle away from home in the tournament and at +1600 I really don’t see any value there.  

Virginia Tech (+6000)

Virginia Tech has been ranked in the AP poll all season, reaching as high as ninth last month, and is currently ranked 11th, while sitting 16th on the oddsboard. At +6000, the Hokies seem like a decent wager, especially after they dismantled then-No. 23 NC State in front of its home fans 47-24 – that’s not the halftime score, that was the final. However, that was just the second win over a ranked opponent, dropping three other chances, including most recently falling 72-64 at home to then-No. 16 Louisville.

The reason I wouldn’t hitch my wagon to the Hokies is they haven’t proved they can step up in big games. In three contests against teams ranked higher than 20th, Virginia Tech is 0-3 with an average losing margin of 17, including losing by 22 at then-No. 4 Virginia. The Hokies are surrendering an average of 10 more points per game in ACC play compared to its non-conference schedule. They are also scoring 11 fewer points per game in conference play compared to non-ACC competition.

I think that the Hokies are a good team that could potentially make a Sweet 16 appearance, but I think when they tip off against tougher competition, they just aren’t at that level and will get rolled as they did against Virginia and UNC.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to win the 2019 college hoops national championship:

Odds as of February 6 at Bovada

We are nearing crunch time in the college hoops schedule with many teams having right around 10 games remaining before conference tournaments begin. As we head into the final month of the regular season, the Duke Blue Devils remain heavy favorites to go on and win the national championship in April at +170. However, there are other teams starting to hit their stride and could knock off Duke when the NCAA Tournament begins.

Bovada has Duke at +170 followed by Michigan and Tennessee at +750, Virginia at +800 and Gonzaga at +1000 to round out the top five teams on the oddsboard.

Kentucky’s Rolling through the SEC

I outlined my case for value on the Kentucky Wildcats in this article last week when they were +2000. Shout-out to them for not burning me after praising them, even with three tough games following my update, including back-to-back wins over ranked teams in then-No. 22 Mississippi State and then-No. 9 Kansas.

The defense has really stepped it up recently, with only the high-scoring Auburn Tigers scoring more than 65 points against Kentucky over its last six games. The Wildcats are by no means on cruise control for the rest of the season, though, as they have two upcoming games against now-No. 1 Tennessee in a home-and-home series.

I think those games with Tennessee are really going to show how this team has improved from its season-opening blowout at the hands of Duke. I said last week that Kentucky’s odds are going to climb as the season progresses. The Wildcats were +2000 and are now up to +1200. Get on them sooner rather than later.

Duke Has Some Big Games Ahead

The Blue Devils are getting all of the love this season, as people drool over their stars in Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish. They showed they were human when they were upset in overtime at home 95-91 by unranked Syracuse in mid-January, although starting point guard Tre Jones was injured in that contest. Following that loss, they had a narrow 72-70 victory over then-No. 4 Virginia, also at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Duke has 11 games remaining on its schedule, six of them against currently ranked opponents, most notably at now-No. 3 Virginia, at now-No. 15 Louisville, at now-No. 12 Virginia Tech and at now-No. 9 North Carolina. I would be very surprised to see the Blue Devils get through that schedule unscathed and if they were to take a few losses, we might be able to get Duke at a better value than +170.

Is Tennessee Worthy of being No. 1 in the AP Poll?

For just the second time in school history, Tennessee sits atop the AP poll. Its previous No. 1 ranking came in 2008 but lasted just one week as it lost its first game, at Vanderbilt, after becoming the top-ranked team in the nation. A similar situation nearly played out this year as the Vols’ first contest after being voted No. 1 came at Vanderbilt and they needed overtime to survive in an 88-83 victory. For the second week in a row, they remain the top team in the nation.

However, they have had just two games against ranked opponents, albeit against then-No. 2 Kansas and then-No. 1 Gonzaga. Tennessee fell 87-81 to Kansas in the NIT Season Tip-Off, but it topped Gonzaga 76-73 in the Air Force Reserve Classic. I get that the Vols are 18-1 and have been punishing teams with their fourth-ranked offense, but I think they’re vulnerable defensively and when they play stiffer competition, they could be in for a rude awakening. They are definitely a strong team and I look forward to their upcoming games with Kentucky but +750 right now is a stay-away for me.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for the 2018-19 college hoops national championship:

Odds as of January 30 at Bovada

We are in full swing of conference play in the college basketball season with the NCAA Tournament looming just a mere two months away. Duke, as it has been all season, remains the heavy betting favorite, dropping from +180 at the start of conference play to +175 at the time of this article.

The tournament is extremely difficult to get through and +175 to win it all doesn’t provide much value so I’m going to take a look at some other teams that may have the ability to beat Duke and pad your wallets better than it would.

Bovada has Duke at +175 followed by Michigan at +800, Virginia at +850, Tennessee at +900 and Gonzaga at +950 to round out the top five teams on the oddsboard.

The Virginia Cavaliers (+850)

Virginia was the last undefeated team in the nation, outlasting Michigan by a few hours as the Wolverines fell to Wisconsin 64-54 earlier Saturday before the Cavaliers were topped 72-70 by then-No. 1 Duke on Saturday evening. That game came at Cameron Indoor Stadium where Duke has won 13 of its last 14 matches with an average winning margin of 28 and has beaten everyone with the exception of Virginia by 10 or more points  – a feather in the cap for the Cavs.

The Cavaliers lead the nation by yielding just 52.9 points per game, including just 49.8 ppg when teams visit them, which is what the Blue Devils will be doing on February 9. I think they are playing with added motivation this season after becoming the first No. 1 seed in March Madness to be eliminated by a No. 16 seed, getting rolled 74-54 by UMBC last year. The Cavs are an experienced team and I think they are a force to be reckoned with. At +850, they are definitely worth a wager.

The Michigan State Spartans (+1400)

One of the hottest teams in the nation recently is Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans, who are riding a 12-game winning streak with an average winning margin of 17. Sparty has played five games against ranked opponents, going 4-1 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 16.25. The only loss came in its season opener against then-No. 1 Kansas.

Michigan State is good on both sides of the ball. It has the No. 10 offense in the nation at 83.8 points per game and over its winning streak has limited foes to just 60.17 ppg, which would rank fifth in college basketball if it were a season average. Similar to Virginia, Michigan State made an early exit from the tournament last year, getting bounced by Syracuse 55-53 in the second round as a No. 3 seed. The Spartans collide with Michigan twice in their last four games and that’ll really show us what they have.

The Kentucky Wildcats (+2000)

Kentucky has the worst odds of the three teams that I think are providing good value to win the national championship in early April. The Wildcats opened the season with a 118-84 beatdown at the hands of Duke and I think people have that game locked in their memories. They have dropped two more games, falling to Seton Hall 84-83 in overtime and 77-75 at Alabama at the beginning of conference play.

However, the team appears to be finding its identity since that loss to the Crimson Tide, rattling off four straight wins, including two on the road, most notably winning at then-No. 14 Auburn 82-80. The defense has really come alive for the Cats as they have limited their opponents to just 64.75 points per game over their last eight games, including just 60 ppg in their last four home games. We are really going to see what Kentucky is over the next few weeks as it has eight matches against current-ranked teams in its next 13 overall. If it finds success down the stretch against those teams, that +2000 is going to rise.

Here’s a look at the full list of the 2018-19 college basketball championship odds:

Odds as of January 22 at Bovada

Archived Articles

We are just over a month into the college basketball schedule, and as it’s been since the start of the season, the Duke Blue Devils continue to dominate the oddsboard, topping all other schools with odds of +200 to win the 2019 national championship. Duke has been the favorite since the preseason when it opened at +450 and since people have seen its exciting gameplay, money has poured in and that line has dropped to +200.

Bovada has Duke leading the charge at +200 followed by Gonzaga at +800, Kansas at +1000, Virginia at +1400 and Nevada at +1500 to round out the top five schools on the oddsboard.

Blue Devils thrilling fans into betting on them

Duke grabbed a lot of attention by opening the season with a dominant 118-84 triumph over then-No. 2 Kentucky that fueled the fire behind the Blue Devils as many are crowning them before the conference schedule even begins. They are led by a three-headed monster of R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish, with the trio of freshmen each averaging double-digit points on the season. Barrett is tops on the team with 24.2 points per game, while Williamson electrifies the crowd with his thunderous dunks en route to 20.4 points and nine rebounds per game.

The Blue Devils did stumble in the Maui Invitational final, falling 89-87 to then-No. 3 Gonzaga as the Bulldogs shot over 50 percent from beyond the arc and from the floor overall, while Barrett couldn’t get a layup to land late as he looked to push the game to overtime. There is still a lot of basketball to be played, but as the young team continues to learn and grow under coach Mike Krzyzewski, it only makes sense that Duke is the favorite to clip the net off the rim at the end of the year.

Kansas not getting any love

Sitting atop the AP poll, but not the oddsboard, are the Kansas Jayhawks. The undefeated Big 12 team has stormed out of the gate to an 8-0 start, including knocking off then-No. 10 Michigan State in the season-opening game 92-87 and also edging then-No. 5 Tennessee 87-81 in overtime before the Volunteers toppled then-No. 1 Gonzaga 76-73. Duke’s recruiting class was already mentioned, but the Jayhawks’ young guns are no slouches either – three 2018 McDonald’s All-Americans in Devon Dotson, Quentin Grimes and David McCormack.

But what sets Kansas apart from Duke is its veteran players as the Blue Devils are led by rookies while the Jayhawks are led by junior forward Dedric Lawson, who is averaging 19.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, and senior guard Lagerald Vick, who is also chipping in with 16.3 points per game. At +1000, oddsmakers are overlooking a dangerous Kansas Jayhawks team that lost in the Final Four last year.

Here’s the full list of the 2018-19 college basketball championship odds:

Odds as of December 10 at Bovada

Archived Articles

College basketball is back in your life and oddsmakers have made some slight changes on the oddsboard for the 2018-19 national championship. The Duke Blue Devils put in a strong season-opening performance and remain the favorites at +300, making them more of a favorite than in the preseason when they were +450.

Bovada has Duke leading the pack at +300, followed by Kentucky at +550, Kansas at +950, and Gonzaga and Nevada at +1000 to round out the top five schools in the nation.

Duke has turned heads early

The AP poll had the Blue Devils ranked fourth to begin the season, while oddsmakers had them as the consensus favorites to win the national championship. Duke had a tough task to open the year, colliding with Kentucky, ranked No. 2 both in the AP poll and on the oddsboard, at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse in the State Farm Champions Classic. The Blue Devils turned heads in that contest with a dominant 118-84 triumph as projected first overall draft pick R.J. Barrett dropping a game-high 33 points in 32 minutes played. They don’t play another ranked team until conference play begins in early January, so expect them to remain atop the leaderboard.

Kansas providing great value

Last season was a successful one for Kansas, making it to the Final Four before being beaten out by the eventual champs, the Villanova Wildcats. The Jayhawks (+950) are ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and got the season off on the right foot, taking on No. 10 Michigan State in the early game of the Champions Classic. Of the three 2018 McDonald’s All-Americans that Kansas recruited, it was Texas guard Quentin Grimes shining the brightest in the season opener as he scored a game-high 21 points to lead his new team to a 92-87 victory. Coming off a strong season last year and with their new recruits playing strong early on in the year, at +950 the Jayhawks are definitely worth a wager.

Here’s the full list of 2018-19 NCAA basketball championship odds:

Odds as of November 8 at Bovada

Archived Articles

The college basketball schedule tips off at the start of November and it is the Duke Blue Devils at +450 who have the best odds to win the national championship this season. Duke has already touched the court in a trio of games north of the border, winning all three games by a combined score of 285-185.

Bovada has Duke atop the oddsboard at +450 followed by Kentucky at +500, Kansas at +750, and Gonzaga and Nevada both at +800 to round out the top five teams in the nation heading into the season.

Duke poised to win its first championship since 2015

The Blue Devils (+450) have done a fantastic job recruiting for the upcoming season, having three players projected in the top four for next year’s NBA draft. Those three freshmen are Zion Williamson, a power forward from North Carolina, Cam Reddish, a small forward from Pennsylvania, and R.J. Barrett, a small forward from Toronto, Ontario, Canada. This could be the first time that players from the same school go in the first two picks in the NBA draft since Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in 2012 with both players coming from Kentucky. The Wildcats won the national championship that year.

Duke won the national championship in the 2014-15 season and hasn’t reached the Final Four since. Last year, the school lost in the ACC semifinal to North Carolina and was eliminated in the Elite Eight in overtime against Kansas at the NCAA Tournament. In addition to their high-level freshmen, the Blue Devils frontcourt is filled with juniors and seniors, including former five-star recruit, junior center Marques Bolden.

Has Kansas equaled Duke’s recruiting class?

The Jayhawks (+750) reached the Final Four last season for the first time since 2012, but they were beat out by the eventual champs, the Villanova Wildcats. Head coach Bill Self went right to work building for the upcoming season as he landed three 2018 McDonald’s All-Americans in Texas guard Quentin Grimes, North Carolina guard Devon Dotson and Virginia center David McCormack. In addition to their strong class of recruits, Kansas also returns sophomore center Udoka Azubuike and junior guard Lagerald Vick. The Jayhawks have made it to the Elite Eight or further in each of the last three years, but haven’t won a national championship since 2008. At +750, perhaps this is the year they can return to supremacy.

Here’s the full list of 2018-19 NCAA basketball championship odds:

Odds as of October 12 at Bovada

Archived Articles

The Duke Blue Devils are the favorite to win the 2018-19 NCAA college basketball championship after an impressive tour through Canada showcasing the skills of Ontario’s R.J. Barrett and the phenom that is Zion Williamson. 

Last week, the Blue Devils toured Canada and took care of business against university sides in Toronto and Montreal. They defeated Ryerson University 86-67, the University of Toronto 96-60 and McGill University 103-58. 

Kentucky Was The Early Betting Favorite, Now Second

John Calipari’s Wildcats hold the distinction of leading all NCAA schools in NCAA Tournament appearances (58), games won (126) and Sweet 16 appearances (43) and have played in 17 Final Fours (second all-time). Their eight NCAA championships are second only to UCLA’s 11 national titles. Kentucky’s last three titles have come since UCLA last won in 1995, with the Wildcats most recently hoisting the trophy in 2012.

Four members of the 2017-18 Wildcats were selected in the NBA draft: Kevin Knox to the Knicks at No. 9, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Charlotte at 11, Jarred Vanderbilt to Orlando at 41 and Hamidou Diallo to Brooklyn at 45. A fifth player, Wenyen Gabriel, went unselected at the draft but signed with Sacramento’s Summer League squad. Sacha Killeya-Jones and Tai Wynyard have decided to transfer. Kentucky has slipped from +600 to +700 over the past two months.

Other Movers On the OddsBoard

Villanova, the 2017-18 national champion, has moved from +850 all the way to +1200 as classes are about to start. The Tennessee Volunteers have seen their odds move from +2800 to +4000, Auburn +2000 to +4000 and Virginia Tech from +4000 to +8000.

The teams that have seen their odds improve include Gonzaga +950 to +800, Michigan State +3300 to +2800, and Arizona jumping from +10000 to +7500.

Below is a full list of 2018-19 NCAA basketball championship odds: