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NFL MVP Odds: Brady Enters the MVP Conversation

Tom Brady moved into fourth place in the odds to become the NFL MVP after his Week 7 performance against the Raiders.

Despite being one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL since entering the league eight years ago, Russell Wilson has notoriously never received a vote for the NFL MVP Award. According to the sportsbooks’ NFL MVP odds, that’s likely to change in 2020.

For the first time ever, Wilson is the favorite to become NFL MVP at ​Bovada. The 31-year-old is -110 to win the award, with Patrick Mahomes (+450), Aaron Rodgers (+450), Tom Brady (+1200) and Kyler Murray (+1600) trailing him.

The Seahawks rank fifth on the Super Bowl oddsboard, behind the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here’s a look at the players with the best odds to win the 2020 NFL MVP Award at Bovada. For a full list of the top places to bet on football, head over to our Best NFL Sites page.

Who Is Favored to Win the NFL MVP Award?

2020 NFL MVP Odds
Russell Wilson-110
Aaron Rodgers+450
Patrick Mahomes+450
Tom Brady+1200
Kyler Murray+1600
Lamar Jackson+1600
Ben Roethlisberger+3300
Josh Allen+3300
Ryan Tannehill+3300
Derrick Henry+4000
Jared Goff+7000
Baker Mayfield+8000
Aaron Donald+10000
Deshaun Watson+10000
Drew Brees+12500
Cam Newton+15000
Ezekiel Elliott+15000
Khalil Mack+15000
Carson Wentz+20000
Daniel Jones+20000

Odds as of October 30 at Bovada

Wilson’s Odds Shift Slightly With Loss

The Seahawks suffered their first loss of the season in a disappointing 37-34 overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7, but Wilson’s odds to become MVP didn’t change much despite his three interceptions. Wilson’s chances shifted slightly from -120 to -110 in light of the loss on Sunday Night Football.

Entering the game, the 31-year-old hadn’t thrown multiple interceptions in a regular-season contest since the 2018 opener. In his nine-year career, he’s thrown more than two picks in a game only three times. 

Wilson did have some brilliant moments in the prime-time matchup, however, as he completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards and three touchdowns while leading the Seahawks in rushing with 84 yards on the ground.

Wilson’s three scores give him 22 on the season, tying Peyton Manning’s record from 2013 for the most in NFL history through a team’s first six games.

Brady Continues to Shine for the Bucs

A familiar face was the biggest odds mover of Week 7, as Brady’s MVP chances improved from +2500 to +1200 after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew out the Las Vegas Raiders 45-20 at Allegiant Stadium.

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Brady threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns to as many receivers while rushing for another in his best performance in a Bucs uniform to date. The Buccaneers (5-2) look like a legitimate Super Bowl threat right now, and their move into third place on the Super Bowl oddsboard is significant considering how many good teams are beneath them.

Brady, who has 15 touchdown passes compared to only one interception in his last five games, is about to get a big boost in Week 9 when Antonio Brown is expected to make his Tampa Bay debut. The 43-year-old Brady continues to turn back the clock and prove that he can, in fact, excel without Bill Belichick on the sideline.

Can Jackson Catch Up?

There were plenty of questions surrounding Jackson when he entered the 2018 NFL Draft, but the former Heisman Trophy winner answered all of those last year to become the 17th signal-caller since 2000 to become MVP. Marshall Faulk (2000, 2001), Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the non-quarterbacks to win the award in that span.

Just how much of a surprise was Jackson’s triumphant 2019 campaign? The Louisville product opened the year as a +4100 long shot to garner the bragging rights as the best player in the NFL. He ended the season with 36 touchdowns and 3,127 passing yards while throwing only six interceptions.

More impressively, Jackson broke Michael Vick’s record for most rushing yards in a single season by a quarterback, finishing with 1,206 yards on the ground and seven scores.

The 2020 campaign hasn’t been nearly as dominant for Jackson, as he’s slipped to sixth on the oddsboard. Jackson’s numbers aren’t up to MVP standards right now, and he has plenty of catching up to do in order to pass the three men ahead of him.

For more football betting information, check out our NFL page.

How to Bet on NFL MVP Odds

Popular NFL bets include point spreads and totals (OVER/UNDER). For those looking for something different, you can wager on which player will be named MVP. As football season progresses, you’ll see the MVP action changing. To get in on the action, you can make a futures bet.

What is a Futures Bet?

A futures wager is a bet on events that will take place in time, like the Most Valuable Player award in the NFL. At your betting site of choice, you’ll see NFL MVP odds listed like so:

Dak Prescott +200

Tom Brady +250

Patrick Mahomes +400

Lamar Jackson +700

Unlike a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the fave here would be the player with the lowest odds. In this case it’s Dak Prescott.

Let’s say you have $55 to spend and you decide that you like Mahomes for MVP. A winning bet would give you a payout of $275 – your original $55 is returned along with your loot of $220. The higher the odds, the more money you’ll see. But, don’t bet on a +5000 MVP candidate in September in the hopes that you’ll make bank at the end of the regular season. Oddsmakers don’t only look at current performance when setting the odds. They also look at past performance, off-season activities and training camp.

Our Odds Calculator can show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Oddsmakers update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

As soon as the Most Valuable Player trophy is awarded to the winner, sportsbooks will update the betting results and you can cash out your bet.