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NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes The Early Favorite

Patrick Mahomes leads NFL MVP odds with a price of +400 in sports betting markets.

With the bulk of free agency and the NFL draft in the books, the NFL offseason has quieted down. When it comes to futures odds for the 2021 campaign, however, oddsmakers haven’t missed a beat – especially in MVP odds.

Patrick Mahomes is the +450 favorite in newly released 2021 NFL MVP odds at ​Bovada, with Aaron Rodgers (+1000), Josh Allen (+1100), Tom Brady (+1200), Matthew Stafford (+1400), Dak Prescott (+1500), Lamar Jackson (+1600), Russell Wilson (+1600), Justin Herbert (+1800) and Kyler Murray (+2000) rounding out the top 10.

Here’s a look at the players with the best odds to win the 2021 NFL MVP Award. For a full list of the top places to bet on football, head over to our Best NFL Sites page.

Who is Favored in NFL MVP Odds?

2021 NFL MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes+450
Aaron Rodgers+1000
Josh Allen+1100
Tom Brady+1200
Matthew Stafford+1400
Dak Prescott+1500
Lamar Jackson+1600
Russell Wilson+1600
Justin Herbert+1800
Kyler Murray+2000
Baker Mayfield+2200
Carson Wentz+2200
Ryan Tannehill+3300
Matt Ryan+4000
Joe Burrow+4000
Derrick Henry+4500
Jameis Winston+4500
Christian McCaffrey+5000
Dalvin Cook+5000
Deshaun Watson+5000
Tua Tagovailoa+5500
Cam Newton+6600
Jalen Hurts+6600
Kirk Cousins+6600

Odds as of July 13 at Bovada

NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy

What makes an MVP? If we look back at past MVPs, there are important commonalities among the winners that can help us narrow the list of potential candidates in 2021 NFL MVP odds before the season even starts.

Firstly, it’s going to be a quarterback. You can scratch Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook off the list now as only two non-QBs have won the award in the last 15 years and both of those were extreme outlier seasons (Adrian Peterson 2,000 yards rushing, LaDainian Tomlinson 31 touchdowns). Henry had more than 2,000 yards rushing last season and didn’t come close to winning the award.

The other two major factors in determining the NFL MVP are team wins and passing touchdowns.  

Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win the MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. And in that span, 10 of the 11 MVPs (Peterson being the outlier) finished either first (five times), second (three times) or third (twice) in passing touchdowns that season.

So, we’re looking for players who are going to be on one of the top couple of teams in the league and also have a chance at finishing in the top two or three in passing TDs.

These factors narrow the list considerably. Kirk Cousins? Don’t count on it. Joe Burrow? Not going to happen.

So who ARE the legitimate candidates in NFL MVP odds? Let’s take a look at some options.

The Aaron Rodgers Factor

On the day of the draft, ESPN’s Adam Schefter dropped a bomb that shook up the NFL world, reporting “Rodgers is so disgruntled with the Green Bay Packers that he does not want to return to the team.” 

It’s been reported that Rodgers, the 2020 NFL MVP, remains adamant that he won’t return to the team under the current stewardship of general manager Brian Gutekunst.

So, what’s next for Rodgers and the Packers? The 37-year-old could refuse to show up for offseason activities while holding out of training camp and into the regular season. 

The Packers insist they will not trade Rodgers, but the Super Bowl 45 MVP’s future with the franchise is incredibly murky right now.

Considering there’s a significant chance he won’t suit up for the Packers in Week 1, it would be wise to avoid Rodgers at his +1000 price in NFL MVP odds.

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Where’s the Value in NFL MVP Odds?

Tom Brady (+1200)

Other than Kansas City, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the highest projected win total in the NFL. And if we follow our criteria for possible MVP candidates, Tom Brady quarterbacking possibly the top team in the NFC puts him squarely in the conversation.

Brady has one of the deepest groups of pass catchers in the league and an elite offensive line, so getting the requisite touchdown numbers shouldn’t be too much of an issue. 

And on top of that, the narratives surrounding Brady’s possible final season and run at a Super Bowl repeat write themselves. Brady is great value at +1200.

Matthew Stafford (+1400)

After getting traded to the Los Angeles Rams from the Detroit Lions in January, Stafford is entering the best situation of his NFL career and has a legitimate chance of winning a Super Bowl in 2021. 

The Rams boast an elite defense, a solid running game and talented wide receivers, but Jared Goff had been on a steady decline since L.A. made an appearance in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. The need for a better quarterback was apparent, and the Rams solved that problem by acquiring Stafford.

At 33, he still has plenty of good football left in him, and it’s not a stretch to expect him to post the touchdown totals and wins necessary to be in the conversation for this award at season’s end.

Lamar Jackson (+1600)

The 2019 NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson had a similar season last year except his touchdown numbers dropped and his interception numbers rose. 

This year, Jackson gets some added weaponry in the form of first-round pick receiver Rashod Bateman and should have a healthier offensive line in front of him. We know the rushing totals will be there, and it isn’t hard to imagine an uptick in Jackson’s passing touchdown total. 

The sticking point for me is how good the Ravens will be this season, playing in a division with Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Jackson would likely need a division title and first-round bye to win the MVP.

But as one of the top teams in NFL Win Totals, oddsmakers think Baltimore will be one of the better teams this year. Jackson is great value at +1600.

How to Bet on NFL MVP Odds

Popular NFL bets include point spreads and totals (OVER/UNDER). For those looking for something different, you can wager on which player will be named MVP. As football season progresses, you’ll see the MVP action changing. To get in on the action, you can make a futures bet.

What is a Futures Bet?

A futures wager is a bet on events that will take place in time, like the Most Valuable Player award in the NFL. At your betting site of choice, you’ll see NFL MVP odds listed like so:

Patrick Mahomes +400

Aaron Rodgers +700

Josh Allen +800

Dak Prescott +1300

Unlike a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the fave here would be the player with the lowest odds. In this case it’s Patrick Mahomes.

Let’s say you have $100 to spend and you decide that you like Mahomes for MVP. A winning bet would give you a payout of $500 – your original $100 is returned along with your loot of $400. The higher the odds, the more money you’ll see. But, don’t bet on a +5000 MVP candidate in September in the hopes that you’ll make bank at the end of the regular season. Oddsmakers don’t only look at current performance when setting the odds. They also look at past performance, offseason activities and training camp.

Our Odds Calculator can show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Oddsmakers update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

As soon as the Most Valuable Player trophy is awarded to the winner, sportsbooks will update the betting results and you can cash out your bet.