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With Week 2 of the gridiron season nearly in the books, there is no better time to get value on NFL awards props.

The NFL MVP is the top individual award in the sport and is always one of the most popular props on the board.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the favorite in NFL MVP odds over at Bovada at +400, but there is plenty of value in the market right now.

If you love betting on NFL futures and season props, be sure to check out our NFL hub for a breakdown of the best NFL betting sites, early Super Bowl odds and our How to Bet on the NFL page. 

Here’s a look at the players with the best odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP Award. 

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Who Is Favored In 2022 NFL MVP Odds?

2022 NFL MVP Odds
Player Odds
Josh Allen +400
Patrick Mahomes +450
Justin Herbert +900
Lamar Jackson +1200
Aaron Rodgers +1500
Jalen Hurts +1500
Tom Brady +1600
Tua Tagovailoa +1800
Joe Burrow +2000
Kirk Cousins +2200
Kyler Murray +2500
Matt Stafford +2800
Derek Carr +3300
Russell Wilson +3300
Justin Jefferson +5000
Trevor Lawrence +5000
Derrick Henry +6600
Jameis Winston +6600
Jonathan Taylor +6600
Mac Jones +6000
Cooper Kupp +8000
Carson Wentz +10000
Daniel Jones +10000
Matt Ryan +10000

Odds as of September 19 at Bovada 

NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy

What makes an MVP?

Firstly, you can pretty much bank on it being a quarterback. Only three non-QBs have won the award in the last 20 years and all three of those were extreme outlier seasons (Adrian Peterson 2,000 yards rushing, LaDainian Tomlinson 31 TDs, Shaun Alexander rushing TD record).

No non-quarterback has won the award since 2012.

The last two seasons also saw massive outlier seasons from non-QBs Derrick Henry and Cooper Kupp and neither of them won the MVP.

So when it comes to betting on NFL MVP odds, we’ll stick to quarterbacks only for now, and maybe switch gears during the year if a non-QB really starts to separate.

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So how do we parse through the group of QBs?

The two major factors in determining the NFL MVP, historically, are team wins and passing touchdowns.  

Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win the MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. And in that span, 11 of the 12 MVPs (Peterson being the outlier) finished either first (five times), second (three times), third (twice) or fourth (once) in passing touchdowns that season.

So, we’re looking for players on one of the top couple of teams in the league who also have a chance at finishing in the top two or three in passing TDs.

Last season, the MVP award came down to Tom Brady (first in TDs, 13 wins) and eventual winner Aaron Rodgers (fourth in TDs, 13 wins).

So who do we like this season?

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NFL MVP Best Bets

The Favorites

There’s a pretty good chance the eventual MVP is one of the top QBs on the board here. It’s not at all hard to see Allen or Herbert or Brady or Mahomes have huge statistical seasons and pick up a ton of wins.

But are we betting on those guys now? Yes and no.

A huge part of betting on props like NFL MVP odds is shopping around at different sportsbooks to find the best prices because there can be a wide discrepancy from book to book. So if you find a great price, go for it.

That being said, we prefer to use the value we have at this point to take shots on players with longer odds in case they jump out to early-season success and vault up the board.

Betting on an Allen or a Mahomes isn’t a bad bet at this point – there just isn’t much value on those bets right now compared to some others.

Lamar Jackson (+1200)

The value isn’t exactly where we would like it (again, shop around), but it seems a lot of people are overlooking the 2019 NFL MVP. 

The Ravens were decimated by injury last season, including Jackson himself missing some games, and we think they have the roster and coaching to bounce back in a big way. It’s going to be tough in the loaded AFC to put up more wins and better numbers than some of the other top guys on this list, but we literally saw Jackson do it three years ago. 

He has the talent to win another MVP.

Jalen Hurts (+1500)

Jalen Hurts is a prime example of why you should be shopping around on prices. While he is listed here at +1500, we have seen him over the last few months ranging anywhere from +1400 to the +4000 range. 

Hurts is starting for an exciting Eagles team with a good-looking defense and the best weapons it has had in years. And while we think they will run the ball quite a bit, Hurts is still set up nicely to succeed in a weak division and conference.

It’s kind of hard to picture the passing TD numbers being high enough, but that’s why we much prefer Hurts if you can get him at +3000 or better as opposed to +1500.

Daniel Jones (+10000)

Let’s get weird. 

Jones has been terrible for the most part so far in his short career, but this season he has a chance to finally have that breakout season Giants fans have been hoping for. 

His weapons are nothing to sneeze at with Saquon Barkley now healthy and Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard and rookie second-round pick Wan’Dale Robinson at receiver. Jones will also have the best offensive line of his career this season with an entirely remade right side, including seventh overall pick Evan Neal. 

On top of that, the Giants appear to have a competent coaching staff for the first time in Jones’ career with Brian Daboll stepping in to replace the mercifully jettisoned Joe Judge. 

The Giants also happen to play in that weak NFC, which is an advantage for anyone you bet on in NFL MVP odds.

Are the stars aligning for Danny Dimes to light the league on fire? Maybe, maybe not. But the Giants are 2-0 for the first time since 2016 and have looked much better than expected on offense.

We’re just saying a $100 bet on Jones gets you $10,000. Think about it.

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How To Bet On NFL MVP Odds

Popular NFL bets include point spreads and totals (OVER/UNDER). For those looking for something different, you can wager on which player will be named MVP. As the NFL season progresses, you’ll see the MVP action changing. To get in on the action, you can make a futures bet.

What Is A Futures Bet?

A futures wager is a bet on events that will take place in time, like the Most Valuable Player award in the NFL. At your betting site of choice, you’ll see NFL MVP odds listed like so:

Patrick Mahomes +400

Aaron Rodgers +700

Josh Allen +800

Dak Prescott +1300

Unlike a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the fave here would be the player with the lowest odds. In this case it’s Patrick Mahomes.

Let’s say you have $100 to spend and you decide that you like Mahomes for MVP. A winning bet would give you a payout of $500 – your original $100 is returned along with your loot of $400. The higher the odds, the more money you’ll see. But, don’t bet on a +5000 MVP candidate in September in the hopes that you’ll make bank at the end of the regular season. Oddsmakers don’t only look at current performance when setting the odds. They also look at past performance, offseason activities and training camp.

Our Odds Calculator can show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Oddsmakers update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

As soon as the Most Valuable Player trophy is awarded to the winner, sportsbooks will update the betting results and you can cash out your bet.

NFL MVP Futures FAQ

Can I bet on who will win the NFL MVP?

Yes, you can bet on who will win the NFL MVP. Like pretty much any and every other sport on planet Earth, you can wager on who you believe will be the league’s Most Valuable Player. Online sportsbooks release odds for a list of athletes with the best chance to win the National Football League MVP.

Who is the favorite to win the NFL MVP?

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the betting favorite at +400 odds to win the National Football League MVP Award. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are next up on the oddsboard.

Who won the NFL MVP in 2021?

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers won the NFL MVP Award in 2021. It was the second straight regular-season MVP award for Rodgers and the fourth of his career.