Patrick Mahomes is the favorite in the 2022 NFL MVP odds

NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes Has Award Locked Down

The NFL MVP is the top individual award in the sport and is always one of the most popular props on the board. With the NFL regular season all wrapped up, the odds have closed, largely because the winner is so obvious.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was the -450 favorite in NFL MVP odds not long ago. He’s the clear winner in the MVP race this year. 

If you love betting on NFL futures and season props, be sure to check out our early Super Bowl odds and our How to Bet on the NFL page. With the conclusion of the regular-season MVP race, bettors can turn their attention to Super Bowl MVP.

Here’s a look at the players with the best odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP Award. 

2022 NFL MVP Odds Tracker

2022 NFL MVP Odds
Player Odds on December 27Odds on December 13
Patrick Mahomes-450+200
Joe Burrow+800+800
Josh Allen+800+1800
Jalen Hurts+1000-150
Justin Jefferson+5000+10000
Justin Herbert+12500n/a
Tyreek Hill+20000+10000
Kirk Cousins+40000+15000

Odds as of December 27

The odds have been taken off the board, with our last update to the NFL MVP tracker as of December 27. At that point, Mahomes was the decisive chalk at -450. Let’s look at the favorites.

NFL MVP Best Bets: The Favorites

Patrick Mahomes (-450)

In terms of personal track record, physical talent and team success, there are few quarterbacks who come close to Mahomes’ level. The 27-year-old is a true franchise QB and when his career is finished, it’s quite likely he is remembered as one of the greatest signal-callers ever.

2022 was another stellar season for Mahomes, who led the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41). As we know from our MVP primer (which you can see at the bottom of the page), passing TDs are massive, as are team wins. Mahomes checks both those boxes, hence his status atop the oddsboard.

Joe Burrow (+800)

Burrow’s numbers this year looked pretty sweet. He finished fifth in the NFL in passing yards (4,475) and tied for second in passing touchdowns (35), all while leading his Bengals to the top of the AFC North standings at 12-4. He is a clear runner-up for MVP, but his season wasn’t pristine enough to win him the award.

Josh Allen (+800)

The market soured on Allen around the middle of the season, likely due to an elbow injury or his uncharacteristic back-breaking interceptions in Weeks 9 and 10. The Bills bandwagon hit a pothole, too, as Buffalo lost two straight games (Vikings, Jets) and momentarily tumbled out of first in the AFC East. The Bills bounced back to win the division and there is a renewed sense of optimism around Allen and his sore elbow issue, which is now in the rear-view mirror. 

Also, let’s not forget Allen’s early-season reign as the favorite in NFL MVP odds. There were points this year when the 26-year-old carried +110 chalk status to win the award. All that amounts to a third-place MVP finish, I’m afraid. 

Why Mahomes Has the 2022 NFL MVP Award Locked Down

It was amazing how quiet Mahomes’ season felt. Allen was chalked for the first half of the season and then, boom, Mahomes took the top spot and never looked back. His numbers this year are glorious, too. For the first time in his career, the 27-year-old led the NFL in passing yards (he was the only QB to surpass 5,000 yards), and he threw the most TD passes for the second time in his six-year career.

The Chiefs also dominated, which NFL fans have grown accustomed to. Kansas City started a bit shaky but turned it on after Week 6, winning 10 of the next 11 games. Touchdowns and team wins are key criteria for the NFL MVP award. 

I’ll eat a shoe if Mahomes doesn’t win the award. His sparkling numbers put him miles above the next-best candidate. 


NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy

What makes an MVP?

Firstly, you can pretty much bank on it being a quarterback. Only three non-QBs have won the award in the last 20 years and all three of those were extreme outlier seasons (Adrian Peterson 2,000 yards rushing, LaDainian Tomlinson 31 TDs, Shaun Alexander rushing TD record).

No non-quarterback has won the award since 2012.

The last two seasons also saw massive outlier seasons from non-QBs Derrick Henry and Cooper Kupp and neither of them won the MVP.

So when it comes to betting on NFL MVP odds, we’ll stick to quarterbacks only for now, and maybe switch gears during the year if a non-QB really starts to separate.

So how do we parse through the group of QBs?

The two major factors in determining the NFL MVP, historically, are team wins and passing touchdowns.  

Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win the MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. And in that span, 11 of the 12 MVPs (Peterson being the outlier) finished either first (five times), second (three times), third (twice) or fourth (once) in passing touchdowns that season.

So, we’re looking for players on one of the top couple of teams in the league who also have a chance at finishing in the top two or three in passing TDs.

Last season, the MVP award came down to Tom Brady (first in TDs, 13 wins) and eventual winner Aaron Rodgers (fourth in TDs, 13 wins).


Last 10 NFL MVP Winners

List of recent NFL MVPs
YearPlayer
2021QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2020QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2019QB Lamar Jackson (BAL)
2018QB Patrick Mahomes (KC)
2017QB Tom Brady (NE)*
2016QB Matt Ryan (ATL)*
2015QB Cam Newton (CAR)*
2014QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2013QB Peyton Manning (DEN)*
2012RB Adrian Peterson (MIN)

*Team made it to Super Bowl but didn’t win

Off the top, we see a few names repeated on our list. Aaron Rodgers has won the hardware three times in the last 10 years, although he stands no chance of winning it this season. 

More notably, zero NFL MVPs have come from Super Bowl-winning teams over the last 10 years. Four NFL MVPs have made it, and all four have lost their chance at the Lombardi Trophy. Perhaps the award is cursed.

Additionally, six of the last 10 MVP winners have come from the NFC. 


Teams With the most NFL MVPs

List of Teams with the most NFL MVP Winners
TeamMVP Awards WonMost Recent NFL MVP
Green Bay Packers10Aaron Rodgers (2021)
Indianapolis Colts9Peyton Manning (2009)
New England Patriots5Tom Brady (2017)
San Francisco 49ers5Steve Young (1994)
Buffalo Bills4Thurman Thomas (1991)
Las Vegas Raiders4Rich Gannon (2002)
Cleveland Browns4Brian Sipe (1980)
Los Angeles Rams4Marshall Faulk (2000)
Minnesota Vikings3Adrian Peterson (2012)
Denver Broncos3Peyton Manning (2013)
Tennessee Titans3Steve McNair (2003)
Washington Commanders3Joe Theismann (1983)
Cincinnati Bengals2Boomer Esiason (1988)
Kansas City Chiefs2Patrick Mahomes (2018)
New York Jets2Joe Namath (1969)
Los Angeles Chargers2LaDainian Tomlinson (2006)
New York Giants2Lawrence Taylor (1986)
Baltimore Ravens1Lamar Jackson (2019)
Carolina Panthers1Cam Newton (2015)
Seattle Seahawks1Shaun Alexander (2005)
Chicago Bears1Walter Payton (1977)
Detroit Lions1Barry Sanders (1997)

The Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never produced an NFL MVP.


How To Bet On NFL MVP Odds

Popular NFL bets include point spreads and totals (OVER/UNDER). For those looking for something different, you can wager on which player will be named MVP. As the NFL season progresses, you’ll see the MVP action changing. To get in on the action, you can make a futures bet.

What Is A Futures Bet?

A futures wager is a bet on events that will take place in time, like the Most Valuable Player award in the NFL. At your betting site of choice, you’ll see NFL MVP odds listed like so:

Patrick Mahomes +400

Aaron Rodgers +700

Josh Allen +800

Dak Prescott +1300

Unlike a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the fave here would be the player with the lowest odds. In this case it’s Patrick Mahomes.

Let’s say you have $100 to spend and you decide that you like Mahomes for MVP. A winning bet would give you a payout of $500 – your original $100 is returned along with your loot of $400. The higher the odds, the more money you’ll see. But, don’t bet on a +5000 MVP candidate in September in the hopes that you’ll make bank at the end of the regular season. Oddsmakers don’t only look at current performance when setting the odds. They also look at past performance, offseason activities and training camp.

Our Odds Calculator can show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Oddsmakers update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

As soon as the Most Valuable Player trophy is awarded, sportsbooks will update the betting results and you can cash out your bet.

NFL MVP Futures FAQ

Can I bet on who will win the NFL MVP?

Yes, you can bet on who will win the NFL MVP. Like pretty much any and every other sport on planet Earth, you can wager on who you believe will be the league’s Most Valuable Player. Online sportsbooks release odds for a list of athletes with the best chance to win the National Football League MVP.

Who is the favorite to win the NFL MVP?

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the -450 favorite in the NFL MVP odds. He’s followed on the oddsboard by Josh Allen (+800) and Joe Burrow (+800).

Who won the NFL MVP in 2021?

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers won the NFL MVP Award in 2021. It was the second straight regular-season MVP award for Rodgers and the fourth of his career.

Which team has the most NFL MVP Award winners?

The Green Bay Packers have produced 10 NFL MVP Sportsbooks. The Indianapolis Colts are in second place with nine Sportsbooks.

Who has won the most NFL MVP awards?

Peyton Manning (five) has the most MVP awards in NFL history. 

When was the last time a non-QB won NFL MVP?

Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson won the NFL MVP in 2012. Since then, only quarterbacks have won the award.