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NFL MVP Odds: Will It Be Rodgers Or Brady?

Aaron Rodgers now leads NFL MVP odds with a price of +125 in sports betting markets.

The regular season is over and the players vying for the NFL MVP have made their case. But it has become pretty clear in the last couple of weeks that this is now a two-man race that many do not believe is much of a race at all. 

Aaron Rodgers has a big lead in NFL MVP odds over at Bovada at -400. Tom Brady (+400), Cooper Kupp (+2000), Joe Burrow (+2500) and Jonathan Taylor (+3300) round out the top five.

Here’s a look at the players with the best odds to win the 2021 NFL MVP Award. For a full list of the top places to bet on football, head over to our best NFL betting sites page.

Who Is Favored In NFL MVP Odds?

2021 NFL MVP Odds
PlayerOdds
Aaron Rodgers-400
Tom Brady+400
Cooper Kupp+2000
Joe Burrow+2500
Jonathan Taylor+3300
Josh Allen+6000
Patrick Mahomes+6000
Matthew Stafford+10000
TJ Watt+15000
Kyler Murray+20000
Jimmy Garoppolo+20000

Odds as of January 11 at Bovada 

NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy

What makes an MVP? At the beginning of the season, we laid out the criteria that virtually all NFL MVP winners have met in recent history.

Firstly, we said it would be a quarterback. This is hardly a controversial statement, but only two non-QBs have won the award in the last 15 years and both of those were extreme outlier seasons (Adrian Peterson 2,000 yards rushing, LaDainian Tomlinson 31 touchdowns).

Now, many might point to Rams receiver Cooper Kupp’s outlier season, and rightfully so. Kupp became just the fourth player since the AFL-NFL merger to lead the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in the same year and his 145 grabs and 1,947 yards are the second-most grabs and yards in a single season in NFL history.

But he’s still not going to win the MVP. Because for better or worse, it’s a QB award. And Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are simply more important to the success of their team than Kupp was to his.

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The two major factors in determining the NFL MVP, historically, are team wins and passing touchdowns.  

Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win the MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. And in that span, 10 of the 11 MVPs (Peterson being the outlier) finished either first (five times), second (three times) or third (twice) in passing touchdowns that season.

So, we were looking for players on one of the top couple of teams in the league who also had a chance at finishing in the top two or three in passing TDs.

It turns out the two realistic candidates at this point are the two quarterbacks on the two best teams in the league in terms of record (both the Bucs and Packers finished 13-4). 

Brady vs Rodgers

Here’s a look at how the two stack up after 18 weeks:

Brady: 13-4 record, 67.5 cmp%, 5,316 YD, 43 TD, 12 INT, 68.5 QBR

Rodgers: 13-3 record*, 68.9 cmp%, 4,115 YD, 37 TD, 4 INT, 68.8 QBR

*Rodgers missed one game, a loss

Pretty close, right? Brady has the edge in yards and touchdowns, Rodgers has the better completion percentage and QBR and the fewest picks.

Rodgers also has the slight edge in several non-volume stats such as net yards/attempt, DVOA, TD/INT ratio and ANY/A. But Brady has the edge in Pro Football Focus’ Big Time Throws stat as well as in their overall grade and passing grade.

So where are we placing our bets?

Aaron Rodgers (-400)

Rodgers missed Week 9 on the COVID list and made a ton of fans and media angry by misleading them about his vaccination status. However, the drama was short-lived and Rodgers has proceeded to light up the league and pull his team to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That late-season surge matters a lot and he seems to be winning the public narrative battle despite finishing 10th in yards and tied for fourth in touchdowns.

The Packers winning the NFC is a big deal for this award, but Rodgers would be the first QB in more than a decade to win the award while finishing outside the top three in passing touchdowns.

He’s the heavy favorite here for good reason, but you aren’t winning much on this bet.

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Best Bet: Tom Brady (+400)

Brady made headlines in Week 15 after being shut out by the Saints at home, leaving the door open for Rodgers to sneak into the NFL MVP odds lead. 

The difference between Rodgers and Brady in the non-volume and efficiency stats is basically a margin of error and Brady is smashing Rodgers in the volume stats.

It’s fair to say Rodgers has been more efficient. But Brady was forced to pass more often due to the lack of an effective run game. 

It should not be lost on voters that Brady is having an MVP-caliber season at age 44 and would break his own record for the oldest MVP in any of the four major North American sports.

There is still some time before the winner is announced, and it seems that a narrative is starting to grow in Brady’s favor in the Twitterverse.

So we’ll take this bet at +400 over Rodgers at -400 even though we think the latter has the momentum right now.

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How To Bet On NFL MVP Odds

Popular NFL bets include point spreads and totals (OVER/UNDER). For those looking for something different, you can wager on which player will be named MVP. As the NFL season progresses, you’ll see the MVP action changing. To get in on the action, you can make a futures bet.

What Is A Futures Bet?

A futures wager is a bet on events that will take place in time, like the Most Valuable Player award in the NFL. At your betting site of choice, you’ll see NFL MVP odds listed like so:

Patrick Mahomes +400

Aaron Rodgers +700

Josh Allen +800

Dak Prescott +1300

Unlike a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the fave here would be the player with the lowest odds. In this case it’s Patrick Mahomes.

Let’s say you have $100 to spend and you decide that you like Mahomes for MVP. A winning bet would give you a payout of $500 – your original $100 is returned along with your loot of $400. The higher the odds, the more money you’ll see. But, don’t bet on a +5000 MVP candidate in September in the hopes that you’ll make bank at the end of the regular season. Oddsmakers don’t only look at current performance when setting the odds. They also look at past performance, offseason activities and training camp.

Our Odds Calculator can show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Oddsmakers update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

As soon as the Most Valuable Player trophy is awarded to the winner, sportsbooks will update the betting results and you can cash out your bet.