Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting History: Successful Postseason Tips

Presidents' Trophy Curse Is Real

Remember how the Boston Bruins dominated the NHL last year with a historic 65-12-5 record? With 135 points, the Bruins posted the best regular-season point total ever in the NHL. Naturally, they were the favorite to win the Stanley Cup that year. At the time of writing, the Rangers sit at the top of the league and are on pace for the Presidents Trophy.

But look we all know about the curse of the Presidents’ Trophy. So don’t be so quick to blindly bet on the Rangers. A Presidents’ Trophy winner hasn’t won the Cup since 2013. You'll remember that was a lockout year. So take out that anomaly and the Presidents' Trophy winner during a full season hasn't also won the Cup since 2008.

In fact, the Presidents' Trophy winner rarely gets out of the second round.

Presidents' Trophy Winner: Exit Round
Round of Exit	Count
Lost In First Round	8
Lost In Second Round	12
Lost In Third Round	6
Lost In Cup Final	3
Won The Cup	8

Going Chalk Is A Right Choice

How about looking at what seed breeds the most champions? Going back to 1999-2000, the first and second seeds from either conference account for 55 percent of the last 20 Stanley Cup champions crowned following a complete 82-game season.

Here’s a breakdown of which seed has won the most championships and which has reached the Stanley Cup Final the most:

Stanley Cup Winner Seed
Seed	Number of Championships	Finals Appearances
1	6	8
2	6	11
3	2	6
4	3	6
5	1	1
6	1	4
7	1	2
8	1	4

Home Ice Advantage In The Round

We often hear that home-ice advantage is massive in the playoffs. There’s a good reason for that. Not only do the rules in hockey favor the home team – like having the last change – but teams with the home-ice advantage do quite well when it comes to winning the series.

Except in the conference finals. Since the wild-card system was introduced for the 2014 playoffs (and not counting the two COVID playoffs), the team with the home-ice advantage has won 31 percent of the time in the third round of the playoffs. In every other round, it’s effectively the opposite:

Home-Ice Advantage Per Round
Round	Series Wins / Series	Percentage
Cup Final	5/8	63%
Conference Finals	5/16	31%
Round 2	17/32	53%
Round 1	41/64	64%

I’m not saying there will be an upset in the conference finals of the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, but based on this data I’m not saying there won’t be.

Playoff Green And Red Flags

I’ve shown you some cute historical tidbits that can help you navigate betting on the playoffs and impress your friends. But none of that data focuses on the players.

Let me change that by highlighting some green flags and red flags for success in the playoffs based on the guys on the ice.

Elite Goaltending

During the regular season, the eventual Cup champion was top-10 in save percentage (SV%) for the league 80 percent of the time.

Having an elite shot-stopper is vital for a playoff run – goalies have won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP 17 times, which is second only to centers (19 times).

Of the 16 teams (currently) in this year’s playoffs, half of the sides are in the top 10 for save percentage. In order those sides are:

Winnipeg (1)
Boston (2)
Florida (3)
Los Angeles (4)
NY Rangers (5)
Vancouver (8)
Vegas (9)
NY Islanders (10)

Outstanding Defense

Defense wins championships. Only one champ in the last five had a defensive rating (measured by goals against per game in the regular season) below 10th in the league. That was the Vegas Golden Knights last year ranked 11th with 2.74 goals against. So still not a bad defensive rating.

Again, looking at the current sides that are in a playoff spot only five are in the lower half for goals against per game. That's a red flag:

Colorado Avalanche (15) - 3.04
Toronto Maple Leafs (17) - 3.06
Washington Capitals (18) - 3.14
New York Islanders (20) - 3.19
Tampa Bay Lightning (22) - 3.24

Shots, Shots, Shots

The modern game is all about puck possession. The best way to measure that in today’s NHL is by looking at shooting stats.

Of the last five champs, four held a Corsi-for (CF%) at 5-on-5 in the top 10 of the league. The only exception was Vegas in 2022.

Ok. So, again, looking at all the teams in the playoffs right now there are a whopping seven teams in the lower half for CF% ratings. That's red flags for:

Washington Capitals (27) 46.40%
New York Islanders (25) 46.85%
Boston Bruins (24) 46.94%
Vegas Golden Knights (22) 48.13%
New York Rangers (19) 50.01%
Tampa Bay Lightning (17) 50.63%
Toronto Maple Leafs (16) 50.75%

The Stanley Cup playoffs are the toughest to win in North American sports. It's a four-round slog with each team absolutely beating themselves up to win a minimum of 16 in order to hoist the trophy.

Heck, even the best teams have a hard time winning this trophy. You'll see that by looking at the Presidents' Trophy curse. It's also plainly obvious when you look at how the best team to ever play the sport (the 2022-23 Boston Bruins) get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs.