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Odds to Win the 2020 Australian Open

Odds to Win the 2020 Australian Open

The new decade is finally here and you know what that means: it’s time to start off the tennis Grand Slam season, with things kicking off this month in Melbourne for the Australian Open. This year is going to be extra special since players will also have to work the Tokyo Summer Olympics into their normal schedule. It’s going to be a great year of tennis.

But we’re not here to talk about the rest of the season. We’re here to talk about the Aussie Open and predict the winners and losers so we can capture the early market value that is out there. The main draws are the most important information to review before the tournament starts. Unfortunately, those draws won’t be released until three or four days before the event starts, so we’re going to focus on other important signals and stories that could offer hints about who’s going far this year and who might win it all.

Predicting the Men’s Draw

Each major Grand Slam except Wimbledon will only consider the ATP and WTA rankings when setting player seedings for the tournament. This means we can take a look at the current ATP and WTA rankings lists to give us a clue how the draw will line up.

Looking at the ATP rankings, we can see the following clues for the top and bottom half of the draws: Nadal #1, Djokovic #2, Federer #3, Thiem #4, Medvedev #5 and Tsitsipas #6. This information points to Djokovic, Federer and Medvedev being in the same half of the draw (bottom) and likewise Nadal, Thiem and Tsitsipas for their side of the draw (top).

If you’re looking to take this even further, you could also correlate how last year’s seeds were positioned in the draw and substitute them with their current corresponding ATP ranking. Things can change with players getting injured, rankings changing or players withdrawing, so I tend to only focus on the top six as these will usually hold.

With this information, we can then begin to craft a story about who stands a chance to go deep in their side of the draw and which formidable opponents lie ahead of them.

Right off the bat, you can see that Nadal will certainly have to face one formidable opponent who has pushed him to the edge on hardcourt and that’s Thiem. Nadal won their only hardcourt meeting at the 2018 U.S. Open in a grueling five-set match that could have easily gone Thiem’s way.

Today, Thiem is much better than he was back then, as 2019 proved to be a breakout year for him when he won at Indian Wells and Beijing and nearly won the ATP Finals in London! Last year he was ousted rather quickly in Melbourne due to injury, but so far it looks like Thiem is rather healthy and a dangerous opponent who beat the likes of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in 2019.

For the bottom half of the draw, you can see that Djokovic will only have to worry about Medvedev and Federer. For some, that would seem like a tall order. However, this is Djokovic’s most comfortable Grand Slam event as he owns seven titles. He proved at Melbourne 2018 he can handle Medvedev, and let’s face it, he’s Federer’s kryptonite. There’s not much I can see standing in the way of Novak Djokovic (+150) making it to the final.

Early Options to Bet

Futures-wise, this is where it gets interesting because it feels like the top half of the draw belongs to either Nadal (+325) or Thiem (+1400), who would most likely eventually face Djokovic. But guess what, if Thiem gets through Nadal and faces Djokovic, he can certainly beat Novak like he did recently during the ATP Finals event and at the French Open. If I’m looking to take a futures bet this early – before the draw is released – then I would love to lay down a small amount to potentially win big and Thiem just might make that happen for us this year.

Women’s Australian Open Odds

On the women’s side, although Naomi Osaka is the incumbent champion, she is +850 to win this time around with Serena Williams the favorite at +500. Rising Canadian superstar Bianca Andreescu (+650), Ashleigh Barty (+750) and Simona Halep (+900) are also near the top of the oddsboard.

A New Women’s Champ in 2020?

Things have been a lot less clear-cut on the women’s side with a different champ crowned in each of the last four Aussie Open tournaments. Naomi Osaka, 22, won the 2019 tournament, defeating Petra Kvitová after shocking the tennis world in a surprise and controversial win over Serena Williams in the 2018 U.S. Open final.

Serena Williams Still in Search of 24th Grand Slam

Serena Williams last won the Australian Open in 2017, defeating sister Venus in straight sets in the final. As the early favorite, she holds seven AO titles and 13 Grand Slam singles titles on hardcourt. Currently 10th in WTA rankings, Serena played a bit of a light schedule in 2019, participating in only eight tournaments – including the Australian Open, where she was eliminated in the quarterfinals by Karolina Pliskova.

Osaka a Dark Horse to Repeat in Melbourne

Fan favorite Naomi Osaka will be looking to repeat her 2019 Aussie Open success. She entered the 2019 tournament as the fourth seed and one of 11 players in contention for the world No. 1 ranking. In October, Osaka announced that she would be giving up her U.S. citizenship to represent Japan in the Summer Olympics in Tokyo.

More recently, Osaka defeated Ashleigh Barty, the top-ranked player in the world, in the final of the China Open in Beijing, a victory that helped her climb back to No. 3 in the WTA rankings. One thing you have to ask is whether Osaka possesses the mental strength coming into this event as defending champ. In 2019, she lost in the fourth round in both Indian Wells and the U.S. Open in the same position. Potentially, the same may happen here.

Andreescu Looks to Continue Her Ascent

Budding superstar Bianca Andreescu, 19, only turned pro in 2017 but she’s already seen massive success. In 2019 she rose to fifth in the world rankings, winning three WTA titles and defeating Serena in the finals of both the Rogers Cup and U.S. Open. At +650 (pre-draw), Andreescu possesses the qualities to come out of the Australian Open a winner. You could even say that her career is mimicking that of Naomi Osaka. Both won Indian Wells and after Osaka took the U.S. Open, she went on to take the Australian Open. Winning would give Andreescu back-to-back Grand Slam titles, so the motivation will be there. One thing to track is her health. She missed some time in 2019 due to injury, had to pull out of the WTA Finals and, more recently, pulled out of Auckland.

Here’s a look at the complete list of odds to win the 2020 Women’s Australian Open from Bovada:

Women’s 2020 Australian Open Betting Odds 
Serena Williams+500
Bianca Andreescu+600
Ashleigh Barty+800
Naomi Osaka+800
Simona Halep+900
Karolina Pliskova+1400
Elina Svitolina+1600
Petra Kvitova+1600
Aryna Sabalenka+1800
Madison Keys+1800
Angelique Kerber+2000
Belinda Bencic+2200
Amanda Anisimova+2500
Sloane Stephens+2500
Kiki Bertens+2800
Caroline Wozniaki+3300
Cori Gauff+3300
Johanna Konta+3300
Victoria Azarenka+3300
Elise Mertens+4000
Garbine Muguruza+4000
Sofia Kenin+4000
Daria Kasatkina+5000
Donna Vekic+5000
Iga Swiatek+5000
Jelena Ostapenko+5000
Karolina Muchova+5000
Maria Sharapova+5000
Anastasija Sevastova+6600
Annett Kontaveit+6600
Caroline Garcia+6600
Caty Mcnally+6600
Danielle Collins+6600
Julia Goerges+6600
Marketa Vondrousova+6600
Coco Vandeweghe+8000
Kim Clijsters+8000
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova+10000
Dominika Cibulkova+10000
Venus Williams +10000
Carla Suarez Navarro+20000
Eugenie Bouchard+25000

Odds as of January 8 courtesy of Bovada

Men’s 2020 Australian Open Betting Odds 
Rafael Nadal-110
Novak Djokovic+300
Dominic Thiem+400
Stefanos Tsitsipas+1400
Alexander Zverev+2000
Danill Medvedev+2500
Roger Federer+2500
Andy Murray+3300
Matteo Berrettini+3300
Stan Wawrinka+3300
Juan Martin Del Potro+4000
Marin Cilic+5000
Borna Coric+6600
Denis Shapovalov+6600
Felix Auger Aliassime+6600
Gael Monfils+6600
Karen Kachanov+6600
Kei Nishikori+6600
Milos Roanic+6600
Nick Kyrgios+6600
Alex De Minaur+8000
David Goffin+8000
Fabio Fognini+10000
Grigor Dimitrov+10000
Jannik Sinner+10000
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga+10000
Kevin Anderson+10000
Roberto Bautista-Agut+10000

Odds as of January 8 courtesy of Bovada