Alexa Grasso is a solid underdog bet vs Valentina Shevchenko

UFC Noche Prop Bets: Count On Grasso To Bring The UNDER Thunder

Within each UFC card, there are hidden prop gems. Sometimes it’s as simple as the OVER/UNDER on rounds or a fighter winning by submission. Either way, our job is to identify the best UFC prop bets on the market so we can rake in the cash together. 

This Saturday, we've got UFC Noche, a Mexican Independence Day Fight Night card highlighted by a women's flyweight title bout between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso.

UFC Noche Prop bets: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2

We've scoured through the odds for prop bets at this pay-per-view event. Here are our three best prop wagers for this card.

Grasso vs Shevchenko UNDER 4.5 Rounds (+100)

I was utterly baffled by Grasso's slick submission upset at UFC 285, and I'm not about to be caught off guard again. When I watched that fight back, I noticed a massive trend: when Grasso threw strikes at the same time as Valentina, she found tons of success.

I'm firmly of the mind that Grasso will engage, engage, and engage some more this weekend at UFC Noche. The Mexican is faster and more explosive than an aging Shevchenko. "Bullet" has a sizeable Muay Thai advantage (and Valentina's legs are like tree trunks), so she could return with plenty of fire.

I'm very close to leaning Grasso inside the distance at +325, but I'll ride with a safer UNDER 4.5 rounds for this main event.

Other bets to consider: Grasso inside the distance (+325), Shevchenko inside the distance (+220), UNDER 3.5 rounds (+145), Grasso to win (+140)

Kevin Holland to win by decision (+400)

Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena is a banger, but I disagree with "Trailblazer" being the underdog. Holland has an edge in reach, experience, and is fresh off an excellent performance vs Michael Chiesa. JDM, on the other hand, just had his worst UFC performance in a split-decision win over Bassil Hafez.

Of course, this fight could end inside the distance, but betting Holland by decision (implied 20% chance) is more than fair value at +400.

Other bets to consider: OVER 1.5 Rounds (-190), OVER 2.5 rounds (+100), Holland to win (+125)

Raul Rosas Jr. To Win In Round 1 (-155)

I'll give the 18-year-old one more crack. I lost some cash betting on Rosas in his last bout, a disappointing three-round decision, where "El Nino Problema" looked overmatched. But at UFC Noche, he's a -700 favorite against a can ready to be crushed. 

Rosas is a submission specialist, so a -165 bet on the kid by decision looks smart, but Terrence Mitchel has never been submitted in professional MMA. A ground-and-pound walloping looks more likely to be in the cards.

Other bets to consider: Rosas inside the distance (-425), Rosas by submission (-165), Rosas by KO/TKO (+300)