Nicolau vs Perez Odds & Picks: Capitalize On A Bad Line

Matheus Nicolau is a -175 betting favorite over Alex Perez (+150) in this UFC Fight Night main event on April 27. We've got all the odds and picks for this flyweight bout.

Nicolau vs Perez Odds

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs perez Odds
Matheus Nicolau-175
Alex Perez+150

Odds as of April 26

Our odds calculator suggests Nicolau's -175 odds equate to an implied win probability of 63.64%, meaning a $100 bet on her pays out $157.14. Perez's +150 underdog odds imply a 40% chance to win, and a $100 bet on him pays out $250. 

Nicolau vs Perez Betting Predictions

The Nicolau vs Perez odds suggest a relatively tight fight, despite the American entering as a short-notice replacement. Let's see how accurate that notion is.

How To Bet Perez

If you're keen on Perez as the underdog, you're going to need some luck. Perez isn't especially flashy, but he's a quality wrestler. To defeat Nicolau, Perez must establish some wrestling dominance and control this bout for as long as he can.

Perez has limited finishing ability and excellent cardio. That's fine, even in a 25-minute fight. Still, Nicolau is a chaos enthusiast and will want to buzz Perez at every turn. 

You can bet Perez to win by decision as a deep longshot bet.

How to Bet Nicolau

Nicolau owns a 91% takedown defense, which should keep Perez off him in the early going. The Brazilian is a hard hitter coming off a stoppage loss. He won his previous fight by second-round TKO.

The five-round format makes this fight funky. While Nicolau is a quality striker and a respectable jiu-jitsu artist, I'm just not certain he can put Perez away.

Nicolau vs Perez Picks

The odds are great for a bet on Nicolau. I believe he can win inside the distance, but the safest play is to take him on the moneyline.

I'll bet Nicolau at -175. For some value, you can wager on Nicolau inside the distance.

Pick: Nicolau (-175) to win

Back to Top