Another season of NFL and college football is underway, but it's never too early to look at the next crop of draftable rookies.
Below I'll break down the latest 2024 NFL draft odds and, as the season rolls on and we get closer to the 2024 selection show, we'll also come out with our annual mock draft, where Caleb Williams is nearly certain to be first pick:
2024 NFL Draft Odds: First Overall Pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| QB Caleb Williams | -500 |
| QB Drake Maye | +550 |
| WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | +1500 |
| OT Olu Fashanu | +2500 |
| DB Kool-Aid McKinstry | +3000 |
| QB Quinn Ewers | +3000 |
Odds as of September 1st, 2023
Williams Clear Favorite to go first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft
The NFL draft odds are pretty clear, USC QB Caleb Williams is basically a lock to go first overall next summer. The reigning Heisman winner (and favorite to repeat) looks an awful lot like Patrick Mahomes so far in his college career, racking up an efficient 4,500 yards, 42 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 14 games last season. The only reason USC didn't make the College Football Playoff with Williams at the helm was a suspect defense. Barring some unforeseen regression or a major injury, Williams will be the top pick in next years draft and a potential franchise QB for whatever squad is bad enough to land the top pick.
Could Quinn Ewers Climb Up To No. 1?
Sure, UNC's Drake Maye is very talented. But, if there's one QB in this draft class I think has the potential to overtake or push Williams, it's Texas' Quinn Ewers. He's already held off the hyped Archie Manning for the Longhorns' QB1 role and looked great when healthy last year. In 10 games, he passed for 15 touchdowns and 2,177 yards. It's been a while since Texas seriously competed in the Big 12, and the former top recruit like Ewers has a chance to get them back to national relevance. If he can do so, he'll be a clear top-10 pick and maybe compete for the top spot.
Previous NFL First Overall Picks
Since 2001, 17 of the 23 players drafted first were quarterbacks. WR Keyshawn Johnson (1996) was the last player drafted No. 1 overall who wasn't either a QB or a lineman.
In the past 10 drafts, there were six QBs, three DL, and one OL selected first.
| Year | Position | Players | School | NFL Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | QB | Bryce Young | Alabama | Carolina Panthers |
| 2022 | DE | Travon Walker | Georgia | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2021 | QB | Trevor Lawrence | Clemson | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2020 | QB | Joe Burrow | LSU | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | QB | Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2018 | QB | Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | Cleveland Browns |
| 2017 | DE | Myles Garrett | Texas A&M | Cleveland Browns |
| 2016 | QB | Jared Goff | Cal | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2015 | QB | Jameis Winston | Florida State | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2014 | DE | Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina | Houston Texans |
Which Team Will Draft First Overall In 2024 NFL Draft?
While we don't have exact odds on which team will finish last in the 2023-24 NFL season, we can use these 'last remaining winless team' odds to give us a good idea which squads the books think will be in contention to pick first overall:
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | +500 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1000 |
| Houston Texans | +1000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +1200 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1200 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +1200 |
The Arizona Cardinals are in really good shape here (well, not in terms of current talent). The Cards are the clear favorites to be the worst team in the NFL this season and they also have the Houston Texans' 2024 first-round pick, giving them two realistic shots at 1.1.
2023 NFL Draft FAQs
Where can I learn more about how to bet on the NFL draft?
If you love the NFL draft but are new to betting or love betting but haven’t put any money down on the draft before, our guide helps you understand how to bet on the NFL draft. It explains the types of bets you can make, so that you can tackle the NFL draft like Aaron Donald takes down quarterbacks.
Who is favored to be selected first overall in the NFL draft?
Alabama Crimson Tide QB Bryce Young is the current betting favorite to be selected first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Ohio State QB CJ Stroud and Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter are the next two most likely candidates to be selected first overall in the NFL draft.
What other NFL draft prop bets can I make?
NFL draft prop betting involves wagers on just about anything to do with the NFL draft and ranges from who will be the first running back drafted, to whether the No. 1 overall pick hugs his mom or dad first, to how many players from the Big 12 will be drafted in the first round.
Who has the No. 1 pick?
The Carolina Panthers hold the No. 1 pick after trading up with the Chicago Bears.
When is the NFL Draft?
The First Round starts Thursday, April 27 at 8 p.m. ET and the draft concludes April 29.
Where is the 2023 NFL Draft held?
Get ready to see lots of red, as the draft is in Chiefs' back yard at Union Station in Kansas City Missouri.
