2026 NFL Draft odds are live, with Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza the heavy favorite to be the first overall pick. Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. (+5000) and Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese (+5500) round out the top three.
Let's take a look at all the 2026 NFL Draft and markets available.
2026 NFL Draft Odds: First Overall Pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) | -7000 |
| EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) | +5000 |
| LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State) | +5500 |
| QB Ty Simpson (Alabama) | +7500 |
| QB Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) | +7500 |
| Caleb Downs (Ohio State) | +10000 |
Odds as of Feb. 5th at FanDuel
Fernando Mendoza Leads 2026 NFL Draft Odds
Indiana's Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman trophy, won the College Football National Championship, and is the favorite to go first overall in the NFL draft. Including the playoff, Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards, a nation-leading 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. He also led the Big Ten in yards per attempt (9.5) and the nation in college passer rating (182.9). While running the ball isn't a huge part of Mendoza's game, he still added 276 yards and seven scores on the ground.
Mendoza will almost certainly become a Las Vegas Raider after the franchise earned the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Raiders limped to a 3-14 record, in large part thanks to issues at the quarterback position. Veteran quarterback Geno Smith, whom Las Vegas traded for last offseason, wound up being a bad bet. The 35-year-old finished the campaign with 3,025 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. His pick total led the NFL.
It's tough to envision the Raiders going elsewhere with their selection or trading away the pick for more draft capital, pending any big changes throughout the pre-draft process. Vegas has needed a franchise quarterback since Derek Carr left the team following the 2022 NFL season, but even then, Carr was never amazing. Mendoza has the chance to be the first truly great Raiders quarterback in a long time.
Previous NFL First Overall NFL Draft Picks
Since 2001, 19 of the 25 players drafted first were quarterbacks. WR Keyshawn Johnson (1996) was the last player drafted No. 1 overall who wasn't either a QB or a lineman.
In the past 10 drafts, there were eight quarterbacks and two defensive ends selected first overall.
| Year | Position | Players | School | NFL Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB | Cam Ward | Miami | Tennessee Titans |
| 2024 | QB | Caleb Williams | USC | Chicago Bears |
| 2023 | QB | Bryce Young | Alabama | Carolina Panthers |
| 2022 | DE | Travon Walker | Georgia | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2021 | QB | Trevor Lawrence | Clemson | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2020 | QB | Joe Burrow | LSU | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | QB | Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2018 | QB | Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | Cleveland Browns |
| 2017 | DE | Myles Garrett | Texas A&M | Cleveland Browns |
| 2016 | QB | Jared Goff | Cal | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2015 | QB | Jameis Winston | Florida State | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2014 | DE | Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina | Houston Texans |
