NFL underdogs have quietly been huge moneymakers over the last few seasons.
So, we're monitoring the dogs again this year, and they continue to be one of the best bets in the league. Below, I break down the profitability of NFL dogs, some specific teams to wager on, and why road NFL dogs have been particularly successful the last few years.
NFL Underdog Betting Trends In 2023
Through Week 1, the dogs are 8-8 overall with significant positive profit. It's early, but it's looking like another good year for the underdogs.
Straight Up NFL Underdog Betting Records
| SU Record | SU Win % | SU Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 8-8 | 50% | +$320.91 (3.2 units) |
Against The Spread NFL Underdog Trends
| ATS Record | ATS Cover % | ATS Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | 62.5% | +$297.57 (3.0 units) |
Underdogs have been particularly profitable again in the early goings this season, against the spread and straight up. One factor in the success of ATS and SU dogs every year is the early-season chaos for some teams expected to be serious contenders.
This season, the Bengals, Chiefs, and Bills all came into the year expecting to be serious Super Bowl contenders — and all lost their Week 1 games.
It’s worth monitoring the lines on these teams as the season goes on and as the books adapt if these great teams continue to rack up losses.
Best 2022 Underdog NFL Teams To Bet On
| Team | Underdog Record | Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 1-0 | +$180.00 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-0 | +$175.00 |
| Detroit Lions | 1-0 | +$175.00 |
The biggest upset of Week 1 was the Rams taking down Geno Smith's Seahawks. Los Angeles was arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL last year, so maybe the tides will change in 2023?
Why You Should Bet On Road Underdogs
Everyone’s always looking for the edge in football betting. Well, for the last three years, that edge has been road underdogs. When teams travel to play favorites in the NFL, they make money by covering the spread.
| Year | ATS Record | Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 85-75-3 | +$293.52 |
| 2021 | 91-80-3 | +$251.17 |
| 2020 | 88-70-0 | +$991.10 |
| TOTAL | 264-225-6 | +$1535.79 |
Traditionally, NFL home teams are given a 3-point advantage on the spread. For example, if a team was a 2-point favorite at a neutral site, they’d be a 5-point fave at home.
But, maybe books are giving the home favorites too much credit? If you simply faded those home faves on the spread for every game over the last three years, you’d be up over 15 units. Until an adjustment is made, it seems like a blind tailing of every single road underdog is a smart bet.
But, if you want to be more selective, here are a few teams that stand out as successful road dogs so far this year:
The Best Road Underdogs
| Team | Underdog Record | Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 1-0 | +$180.00 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-0 | +$175.00 |
| Detroit Lions | 1-0 | +$175.00 |
