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NFL Conference Championship Picks: Recommended Best Bets

Davante Adams should play a key role in the Packers covering the 3-point spread at home vs the Buccaneers.

Welcome to the second-last edition of the Pick Six. As we embark on the final three games of the 2021 NFL playoffs, we’ve got two high-profile matchups – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs the Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills vs the Kansas City Chiefs – to choose our best bets from. Even though it’s been an unconventional season, these are arguably the four best teams in the NFL competing to win Super Bowl 55.

With only two games on Sunday, we’re going to get creative for my six best bets for the NFL conference championships. I’ll be making a pick for the side, total and a specialty prop for each game. No parlays!

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You may think some of my NFL best bets are square, but I’d rather be a square and win than a contrarian and lose. That’s why I’ll understand if you want to fade but take that route at your bank account’s own peril.

NFL Conference Championship Picks

If this is your first time checking out my NFL picks or you aren’t sure what to expect, here’s how it works: Each week during the 2020 NFL season and playoffs, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total.

All NFL betting odds below are courtesy of the latest lines as of this writing. The Pick Six will be presented weekly right up to Super Bowl 55.

Check out my best bets for touchdown scorer picks for NFL conference championship games and follow me on Twitter at @GDAWG5000 for all my prop picks.

Here are my six favorite NFL picks for the AFC and NFC championship games:

Green Bay Packers -3 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-120)

You know when you see a good NFL underdog and think about all the money you could win by backing them? Yeah, that’s not going to be the case this week. I think the Packers are going to steamroll the Buccaneers in the NFC championship game and would’ve even considered this spread up to -4.5.

The Packers are a squeaky-clean 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in nine home games this season (including playoffs) with their lone outright loss coming to the Vikings. In those eight wins, they’ve beaten teams by an average of 14.6 points, with six of the victories by double digits. Three of the eight wins have come against teams with records of .500 or better, each of them by 10 or more points.

Then there’s the presumptive NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers. I think this can be safely assumed but when he plays at home this season, he’s lights-out. The man is completing 70.1 percent of his passes to go with 25 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He’s also thrown 21 touchdown passes and just one interception in his last seven games overall.

When you consider how the Buccaneers beat the Saints in the divisional round, the game was essentially gifted to them. Tampa Bay feasted on three Drew Brees interceptions that gave them a short field against the Saints defense. That won’t happen with Rodgers so I’m banking on the Packers to take care of business and make it to Super Bowl 55.

Buccaneers-Packers Game Center


Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Green Bay Packers UNDER 51 (-110)

As much as I could gush about both of these offenses, the reality is that this is likely going to be a defensive battle at Lambeau Field. The Bucs obviously have the best run defense in the league and that should neutralize the Packers’ ability to move the chains and convert third downs or get into the end zone at the goal line.

On the flip side, the Packers are going to make Tom Brady have to beat them with long throws and pinpoint passing and while he kinda carved up the Saints secondary, I don’t envision that happening on the frozen tundra in Green Bay.

When these two teams played in Tampa, the Packers offense was completely shut down and could only muster 10 points. Much like Brees in the Bucs-Saints playoff game, Rodgers threw some bad interceptions (his only multi-interception game of the season), with one a pick-six and the other handing the Bucs the ball in Packers territory. I don’t see that happening again to No. 12 at Lambeau Field. Take the UNDER given the stakes.


Packers-Bucs: Defensive/Special Teams Touchdown (+200)

This one is a bit of a gamble because you’re essentially betting on a mistake. You’re betting that Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady will throw a pick-six or that the special teams returners will break through on poor coverage. Shenanigans like this in a football game are what I live for.

Sometimes when making bets on playoff games, you need to zig while everyone else is zagging. Naturally, there aren’t many opportunities left to take this kind of prop but with both teams having ball-hawking secondaries, don’t be shocked if the cold weather affects Brady’s 43-year-old arm and the Packers take one to the house off an interception.


Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 vs Buffalo Bills (-115)

Look, I said this last week about the Bills and I stand by it: They’re overrated. In their two playoff wins, it felt like they outlasted the Colts and Ravens rather than convincingly dominating them. The Ravens defense really only gave up 10 points to Buffalo after that awful pick-six by Lamar Jackson, who had the Ravens in the red zone and set to score. Unlike Jackson, the Chiefs not only know how to play from behind, but they could also be down 10 points going into the fourth quarter and I’d still like their chances to cover the -2.5 spread.

I know there’s some trepidation about taking the Chiefs with the uncertain status of QB Patrick Mahomes but I’ll save you the suspense. He’s going to play and will play well. Kansas City has the edge in nearly every facet of the game. The Chiefs have the better QB, better coaching staff and better run game, and are playing at home in front of at least some fans. I still like the Chiefs up to -3.5 but if you can get them at -2.5, bet the house.

Bills-Chiefs Game Center


Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 54 (-110)

Regardless of who wins this Bills-Chiefs game, I don’t see it going over 54 points. The weather in Kansas City isn’t supposed to be great and that will likely affect how the teams perform on third down to sustain drives.

I brought this up last week before the Browns-Chiefs game went UNDER: Chiefs games tend to go UNDER when the closing total is set at 50 or more. In 12 KC games this season when the total was set at 50 or more, the O/U record is 4-8, including 2-4 at Arrowhead Stadium.

Also, take a look at the previous matchup when the Chiefs went to Buffalo in Week 6. The final score was 26-17 with both teams fully healthy and KC completely shut down the Bills offense in the second half, limiting Buffalo to just seven points.

The only way Buffalo wins this game is by holding the Chiefs to less than 25 points to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field and even that may not be enough.


Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs: Successful 2-Point Conversion (+275)

Much like the defensive/special teams touchdown bet, this kind of wager is a gamble because you’re betting on shenanigans and mistakes by kickers. Usually, when a two-point conversion happens, it’s because kickers are missing extra points or teams are settling for field goals early in the game. Enter Harrison Butker.

The Chiefs kicker has been fairly solid on conventional field goals, posting a spotless record this season when kicking from 40 yards in for three points, but when it was an extra point, he sometimes had the yips. He missed six extra-point attempts in six games and another one in last week’s playoff game vs the Browns (seven total). Why is that important? Because there was at least one two-point conversion attempt in four of those games. In order to cash this prop, there’s gotta at least be an incentive to go for it.

We kind of got robbed last week when the Browns should’ve gone for it but they decided to go with the conventional approach. Both of these coaching staffs are far more aggressive than the Browns, so this is a good prop to take considering the stakes.


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