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The Pick Six: Week 15 NFL Picks

Pick Six Week 14 December 12 2019 Travis Kelce

With four straight weeks of profit for The Pick Six, it’s safe to say I’m feelin’ myself going into Week 15. I finished Week 14 going 3-3 with my six picks, but two of them were Niners moneyline (+120) and Chiefs moneyline (+150), along with the UNDER 46 for MNF between the Giants and Eagles.

Now, with the recent success, I’m playing with house money heading into Week 15 and it means we might be able to take some chances on some underdogs. In fact, we’re making it THE WEEK OF UNDERDOGS!

Each pick this week will be an underdog spread or moneyline pick, with no totals. Follow me on Twitter @GDAWG5000 for all my NFL prop bets and in-game plays.

Here we go with Week 15!

All lines courtesy of Bovada

Texans Moneyline vs Titans (+130)

I’m going with the better quarterback in this matchup because while I think Ryan Tannehill has been solid for the Titans, I don’t trust him to mount a comeback if the Texans get up big. On the other hand, if this scenario is flipped, Deshaun Watson has earned my trust to make me feel like I’m not out of the race.

The Texans are almost throwing people off their scent after the egg they laid at home vs the Broncos but they own some impressive wins this season. They’ve beaten the Patriots, Chiefs and Colts and have a much more explosive offense than the Titans, despite Tennessee’s recent surge. I think you need to let go of the recency bias – remember that the Titans still have Tannehill at QB and he hasn’t topped 200 yards passing in three of his last six starts.

Texans vs Titans Game Center

Panthers +6.5 vs Seahawks

Another game where I think the favorite is overvalued. The Seahawks might be one of the luckiest teams in the NFL considering nine of their 10 wins have come by eight points or less.

The Seahawks are coming off a blasting from the Los Angeles Rams and the defense has been getting routinely smoked by the opposition. The Seahawks rank 19th in points allowed per game, which is easily the worst of any potential playoff team in the NFL.

I am also banking on a resurgence of Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey, who has been held out of the end zone for two straight weeks. I expect new coach Perry Fewell to make it a priority to have McCaffrey get at least 25 touches and control the clock. Sprinkle a little on the moneyline if you’re feeling dangerous.

Seahawks vs Panthers Game Center

Cardinals Moneyline vs Browns (+125)

It’s a battle of Heisman Trophy winners with Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield, the two most recent winners, squaring off at QB and I’ve gotta side with the Cardinals in this one.

Yes, I’m aware the Cardinals have lost six straight games. Yes, I’m aware they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. But it’s still the Browns coming to play and they’re an accident waiting to happen. The Browns nearly lost to the Bengals last week and needed a late TD just to win that game.

The Cardinals are scrappy considering they’ve only been favored in one game this season and are an impressive 7-5-1 ATS. The Browns defense is spotty and Baker is prone to making boneheaded passes. Cardinals for the win.

Browns vs Cardinals Game Center

Falcons +11 vs 49ers (-110)

Maybe it’s because I have Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman on my fantasy teams or maybe I just feel bad for noted Falcons fan Iain MacMillan, but I think Atlanta keeps this game relatively close. The Falcons have won three of their last five games and while two of those wins were vs the Panthers and Saints, the defense held them both below 10 points.

Let’s just get this out of the way: I think the Niners are a great team but last week’s game vs the Saints, along with some previous matchups, make me think the defense can be scored on. I’m willing to lay my money on a double-digit dog that has weapons to score.

Falcons vs 49ers Game Center

Bills Moneyline vs Steelers (+110)

Out of all the picks, this is the one where I’m a little iffy. I think the Bills offense has been a revelation but I worry that Josh Allen took advantage of some sloppy defenses (Cowboys, Broncos, Dolphins) and the Steelers are anything but that. Pittsburgh’s secondary has a bunch of ballhawks and could spoil this pick in a hurry if the Bills don’t get the ground game going.

That being said, the Bills defense is not to be taken lightly and I think they make QB Duck Hodges finally look like a rookie. With the spread so close, if you think Buffalo covers, you might as well just take the value and go with the moneyline.

Bills vs Steelers Game Center

Colts +9.5 vs Saints (-110)

Before I get into why I think the Colts cover the spread, this line is way too high. The Saints are obviously a good team but you can’t just dismiss Indy as a team that will get walked over, because the Colts have too much talent. Yes, I know they’ve lost five of their last six games but three of those losses were by last-second field goals and QB Jacoby Brissett didn’t play in one of the other two.

Then there are the Saints, who have been kind of a disappointment over the last three weeks. They lost outright to the Niners, couldn’t get the offense going vs the Falcons on Thanksgiving and then had to mount a comeback to beat the Panthers. Not exactly inspiring stuff as a 9.5-point favorite. I think the Saints win but the Colts keep it close and lose again on a last-second field goal to Drew Brees and company.

Colts vs Saints Game Center

As mentioned, follow me on Twitter at @GDAWG5000 for more betting analysis and on Sundays for my weekly touchdown scorer prop picks. Happy Betting!