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The Pick Six: Super Bowl 54 Edition

Pick Six Super Bowl 54

We’ve made it to the final game! Super Bowl 54 is on Sunday and after 17 weeks of the regular season and three weeks of playoff football, we’ve come to the conclusion of the Pick Six column and what better way to wrap up the year than with a heavyweight matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.

Make sure as always to check out the latest odds for the Super Bowl and read our betting preview from Ryan Fowler for how he sees the game playing out. With this column, we’ll pick a side and total for the game but also include four Super Bowl props that I think can get you paid.

Also, don’t be hesitant to check out our How To Bet Super Bowl 54 page if you’re new to sports betting and need some guidance.

If you want to see all the TD scorers and betting props I’m on for the game, make sure to follow me on Twitter @GDAWG5000 for all my prop bets and in-game plays.

Chiefs -1.5 Full Game Spread (-110)

I don’t want to use hyperbole in saying the Chiefs offense can’t be stopped but we’re pretty close to that conclusion. The Chiefs are on a crazy run of scoring that even a juggernaut of a defense like the 49ers likely can’t slow down. Over the last eight games (including playoffs), the Chiefs have won each game by seven points or more.

As much as we can gush about the offense, it’s the defense that has actually been the guiding force and made me go all-in on KC. The Chiefs pass defense has improved significantly this season with the additions of DE Frank Clark and safety Tyrann Mathieu, holding teams to only 221.4 passing yards per game (ranked seventh) compared to 273.4 (ranked 31st) a year ago.

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP (+115)

Obviously, if I’m going to take the Chiefs to win and cover the spread, I’m going to take the main reason why it happens. QB Patrick Mahomes is the best football player on the planet and is the favorite to win Super Bowl 54 MVP. He has orchestrated KC comebacks from double-digit deficits in both playoff games. Scrambles out of the pocket and unconventional throws will keep a conventional defense like the Niners off balance.

If the unthinkable happens and the 49ers win this game, I think it will be a result of their relentless pass rush, so take a punt on Nick Bosa at +1800 if you’re looking at a defensive player.

OVER 54.5 Chiefs-49ers (-110)

Tripling down on my theory that the Chiefs romp over the 49ers in this game, KC is going to score a ton of points. During the Chiefs’ eight-game win streak, they’ve averaged 31.6 points per game and just got done putting up 51 on the Texans and 35 on the Titans in the playoffs.

And we can’t discount the 49ers as just some defensive team that grinded its way to the Super Bowl – San Fran was second in points per game and was a monster rushing the ball. Since Week 14, which included that crazy game in New Orleans where the Niners scored 48 points, they’ve averaged 32.3 points while also giving up 26.1 points. I think we could see 70 points in this matchup, which is why 54.5 feels like an easy OVER.

49ers First-Quarter Moneyline (-105)

This may be track record but also a gut feeling. I think the 49ers will actually take the early lead and try to bleed as much time on the first drive as possible to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. That means they’ll employ the ground game and try to get Raheem Mostert and/or Tevin Coleman going early to keep the chains moving.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan is notorious for coming up with gadget plays and gimmicky formations to throw defenses off and the first quarter is where the most-scripted plays happen, which makes me think San Fran will be leading 10-7 when the first-quarter clock hits zero.

Travis Kelce To Score 2 or More Touchdowns (+400)

I posted this player betting prop on my Twitter account once the Super Bowl matchup was announced and I think Travis Kelce is the player you have to bank on to have a multi-touchdown day for the Chiefs. For starters, Kelce leads the team in touchdown receptions since Patrick Mahomes became Kansas City’s starting quarterback and while he was limited to only three catches because of injury vs the Titans, he should be plenty rested for this matchup.

The Niners allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this season (tied for 23rd in the NFL) and that defense really only has one weakness and that’s been over the middle. There isn’t really a ton of value in the anytime touchdown market for Chiefs players, so go with the Chiefs’ best receiving option because I’m concerned that San Fran will focus most of the attention on WR Tyreek Hill.

Kendrick Bourne Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275)

While some would think there’s better value on a player like TE George Kittle or WR Emmanuel Sanders, we’re going to play a game of “do you know?” for Kendrick Bourne.

Do you know who has the second-most receiving touchdowns for the 49ers this season? Do you know who leads the team in red-zone touchdowns this season? Do you know the only 49ers player to catch a touchdown in these playoffs?

If you answered Kendrick Bourne for each of those questions, congratulations, you just won free advice for a betting prop for Super Bowl 54. In all seriousness, +275 is great value for a player who hits a lot of checkpoints for me to invest in him.

As mentioned, follow me on Twitter at @GDAWG5000 for more betting analysis. Bonne Chance!

All lines courtesy of Bovada