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The Pick Six: Week 7 NFL Picks

Pick Six Week 7 October 17 2019 Aaron Rodgers

After finishing 3-3 for my NFL picks for Week 6 (-0.3 units), it’s time to get back on the saddle and unveil my Week 7 betting locks with The Pick Six.

I’m staying away from the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs-Broncos as I’m still uncertain that Kansas City’s offense is back on track and there’s no way in hell I’m backing Denver to cover. Worth noting QB Joe Flacco is 7-3 SU when playing on Thursdays.

Instead, I’m rolling with anytime touchdown scorers for TNF and you can check me out on Twitter at @GDAWG5000 to see any in-game bets I’m on for every prime-time game.

Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 7!

All betting odds courtesy of Bovada.

Ravens-Seahawks OVER 49 (-110)

I think I’ve figured out the Ravens: a dynamic offense as they average 30.7 points per game (ranked second in the NFL) and a defense that is overhyped. Over its last four games, Baltimore is allowing 27 points per contest and that’s a cause for concern because the Ravens rank second-last in the league with eight rushing touchdowns allowed.

Speaking of rushing touchdowns allowed, the Seahawks fall in the same spot as the Ravens as they’ve also allowed eight scores on the ground this year. Considering both of these teams’ offenses rank in the top 10 in rushing yards per game, I find it hard to believe either defense can contain the other team.

Ravens-Seahawks Game Center

Packers -5 vs Raiders (-110)

The only favorite that I feel comfortable laying the points with for Week 7, I think the Packers destroy the Raiders with their rushing attack. Green Bay’s defense has been solid but not great this season, but the only way the Packers lose this game is if they don’t contain the run and Raiders RB Josh Jacobs runs all over them as he did in London vs the Bears in Week 5.

This is a game that the Raiders don’t usually win and after traveling overseas and then back from Oakland to Wisconsin, there could be some jet-lag potential. They also got blasted when they played Minnesota and the Packers beat the Vikings handily. Fade the Raiders in this one.

Raiders vs Packers Game Center

Bills-Dolphins UNDER 41 (-110)

Two terrible offenses with one historically bad team (looking at you, Miami), I have no idea how this game gets to 40 points. The Dolphins offense has turned to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and you know he’s good for at least two interceptions against that excellent Bills secondary.

The Bills offense is so one-dimensional and is averaging only 18 points per game, relying too much on QB Josh Allen to run with the ball when the play breaks down. That may still be effective vs the Dolphins but even then, they may get up 28-0 and just park the bus. The Fins have yet to score more than 20 points in a game and the average combined score in their last four games is 38.

Also, the Bills’ first five games have all gone UNDER and in my article written before their Week 6 bye, I predicted they will break the UNDER streak to start a season, which is six.

Bills-Dolphins Game Center

Chargers-Titans UNDER 42.5 (-115)

The Titans made a quarterback change and are going with Ryan Tannehill. Call me a hater but that is a terrible move by Tennessee. Tannehill is not a good quarterback and I’d be surprised if he can drive the Titans to more than 20 points based on his track record in the NFL. The Titans were already one of the worst offenses in the league (16.3 points per game in 2019) before Tannehill was named the starter.

However, as much as I’ve trashed the Titans for their offense, their defense is still very strong and only one opponent has scored more than 20 points on them this season. I think Tennessee can discombobulate a Chargers offense that is already on peak discombobulation. The Bolts have scored 20 points or less in four of their last five games. This game will be a slog and the UNDER is the only play I can endorse in this matchup.

Chargers-Titans Game Center

Cardinals Moneyline (+150) vs Giants

I’ve won money the last two weeks by backing the Cardinals moneyline and I think they have a weak opponent in the Giants to get their third win of the season. The Cards defense will get Pro Bowl CB Patrick Peterson back, which should help neutralize passing options for Giants QB Daniel Jones.

RB Saquon Barkley is expected to be back for this matchup and while Arizona allows a ton of rushing yards, the Cardinals have only given up two rushing touchdowns through six games, which is tied for second in the NFL.

Another reason why I love the Cardinals is that the Giants defense stinks. New York ranks in the bottom five in rushing yards and passing yards allowed while giving up 26.7 points per game (ranked 27th).

Cardinals-Giants Game Center

Eagles Moneyline vs Cowboys (+130)

As a loyal Cowboys fan, it pains me to have to pick against them but Dallas has looked to be in quicksand with its offense lately. America’s Team has got off to slow starts in its last three games and hasn’t scored more than 10 points in the first half in those outings.

The Eagles offense will run all over them because the Dallas defense has been a mirage this season. When the Cowboys play the better teams in the NFL, they can’t stop the rush and are getting exposed.

Then when you factor in all the injuries to the Cowboys like LT Tyron Smith, WR Amari Cooper and RT La’el Collins, it’s hard to envision a Cowboys win at Jerry World vs their divisional rival.

Eagles vs Cowboys Game Center

As mentioned, follow me on Twitter at @GDAWG5000 for more betting analysis and on Sundays for my weekly touchdown scorer prop picks. Happy Betting!