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NFL Super Bowl 55 Picks: Recommended Best Bets

Tom Brady and Buccaneers may be a popular pick to win Super Bowl 55.

We’ve made it to the final game! Super Bowl 55 is on Sunday and after 17 weeks of the NFL regular season and three weeks of playoff football, we’ve come to the conclusion of the Pick Six column. What better way to wrap up the year than with a heavyweight matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

With only one game, we’re going to get creative for my six best bets this week. I’ll be making a pick for the side, total and some Super Bowl specialty props. No parlays!

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Make sure as always to check out the latest odds for the Super Bowl and read our betting preview for another perspective on how the game may play out. If this is your first time ever betting on the Super Bowl, check out our handy How To Bet Super Bowl 55 guide that can get you up to speed.

NFL Super Bowl Picks and Best Bets

If this is your first time checking out my NFL picks or you aren’t sure what to expect, here’s how it works: Each week during the 2020 NFL season and playoffs, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. With only one game this time around, I’ll also include some in-game props. All NFL betting odds below are courtesy of the latest lines as of this writing.

Some of you may be interested in my best bets for touchdown scorer picks in the big game. Check those out and make sure to follow me on Twitter @GDAWG5000 for all my prop bets and in-game plays.

Here are my six favorite NFL picks for Super Bowl 55:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline (+145) vs Kansas City Chiefs

Of all the bets I’ve made for Super Bowl 55, this is where I flip-flopped the most before settling on the pick. I’ve gotta go with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in this instance. I know it sounds like a complete blunder to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but hear me out.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are playing in circumstances that no team has ever faced in Super Bowl history and that’s playing an opponent on its home field. The Bucs earned the luxury of being able to play at Raymond James Stadium and it can’t be stressed enough how this may impact the outcome of the game.

Another reason I like this pick is that I get to back Tom Brady playing with one of the most talented teams of his career. Outside of the 2007 Patriots, no Brady-led team has had this wealth of offensive and defensive talent. You saw in the NFC championship game vs the Packers that when Brady started to struggle, his defense locked in and made Aaron Rodgers and the Pack have to punt three times in the fourth quarter.

The final reason I’m backing the Bucs is because of their Week 12 game vs the Chiefs. Yes, they were beaten handily no matter what the final score says (27-24) but they have game tape and the recent tendencies of the Chiefs to examine and exploit. Add all this in with the Chiefs’ recent offensive line woes and this is shaping up to be Super Bowl No. 7 for TB12.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tom Brady For Super Bowl MVP (+200)

Naturally, if I’m taking the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl, I’m going to go with Tom Brady to win Super Bowl MVP at +200. The GOAT owns the record for Super Bowl MVPs with four in his career and since that loss in Week 12 to the Chiefs, Brady has been ballin’. In seven games since (four regular-season games and three playoff contests), TB12 has 19 touchdown passes to four interceptions, with three of those INTs in the NFC title game. He hasn’t looked this sharp in years and seems to have put some early-season struggles behind him.

The reality is when betting on Super Bowl MVP, skill position and defensive players typically offer the best odds. That’s because they don’t win it as often as sportsbooks let on. In 54 Super Bowls, a quarterback has won MVP 30 times (55 percent). Since 2000, quarterbacks have won it 13 of 21 times. Quarterbacks get the glory or the blame no matter what happens in the game. Unless Brady is just a senior citizen on the field and the Bucs somehow win in spite of him, the narrative is too great to not give it to TB12.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 56 (-110)

This bet is almost a triple-down of my Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl pick because I think the only way the Bucs beat the Chiefs is by holding them to less than 25 points. If you’ve read this far, I don’t think I need to get into how insanely great the Chiefs offense is – they can put up 30 points on nearly any team in the NFL without breaking a sweat. Well, this time, I don’t think it’s going to be that easy.

The Chiefs’ offensive line injuries cannot be overstated. When your All-Pro RT is gone for the year and your starting center could potentially miss the game due to COVID-19, that’s going to affect your protection and there can’t be any mistakes against this Bucs defensive line. They’re going to pressure Mahomes all game, similar to how the 49ers harassed him and nearly held him and the Chiefs in check in Super Bowl 54.

On the flip side, the Buccaneers offense isn’t as explosive as their scoring stats would indicate as they were in the middle of the pack in the NFL in terms of first-quarter scoring and third-down conversion rate. The Chiefs defense can cause pressure too and we’ve seen what happens to Brady and his offenses when defenses collapse the pocket. I think points will be at a premium for this one.

Kansas City Chiefs First-Quarter -0.5 Spread (+120)

As I just mentioned about slower starts for the Buccaneers, a crazy stat that has been making the rounds this week is about Tom Brady’s previous nine Super Bowl appearances and the Patriots’ lack of early scoring. In fact, in those nine Super Bowls, the Patriots never scored a touchdown in the opening quarter. While I don’t want to just bank on that trend for this pick, a nine-game sample size is enough to identify a key trend, even if it came with another team.

Another reason why I think the Chiefs will come out strong to start the game is because of Andy Reid and his scripted plays. KC is known for early quick-strike gadget plays that knock an opposing defense off its rhythm. When the Chiefs faced the Bucs in Week 12 in Tampa, Kansas City was up by 17 points before the end of the first quarter after Tyreek Hill unlocked God mode and caught two long touchdown passes.

Super Bowl 55: Successful 2Pt Conversion (+275)

This one is a bit of a fun prop because you’re essentially betting on shenanigans to happen in the game. Usually, when a two-point conversion happens, it’s because kickers are missing extra points or teams are settling for field goals early in the game. Enter Harrison Butker and Ryan Succop.

The Chiefs kicker has been fairly solid on conventional field goals, posting a spotless record this season when kicking from 40 yards in for three points, but when it was an extra point, he sometimes had the yips. He missed six extra-point attempts in six games and another one in the divisional playoff game vs the Browns (seven total). Why is that important? Because there was at least one two-point conversion attempt in four of those games.

It’s the same case for Succop. Much like Butker, inside the 40-yard line, he’s a lock for field goals. But it’s those missed extra points that stir the pot. Succop missed six extra-point attempts this season in five games (one playoff game) and when that happened, a two-point conversion was attempted in three of those contests.

In order to cash this prop, there’s got to be at least an incentive to go for it and considering the stakes of playing in the Super Bowl, there’s no bigger stage than this.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes To Throw An Interception (+140)

This is a bit of an odds play more so than fading Patrick Mahomes because the reality is the guy just doesn’t throw many interceptions. With only 13 picks tossed over the last two seasons (including playoffs), it would seem like a foolish bet. But here’s why you need to tail this: Quarterbacks don’t ever intend to throw interceptions. The fact remains that they can do everything perfectly, avoid the pass rush, put a pass right into a receiver’s hands and it still bounces off his fingertips and into the grasp of an opportunistic safety or cornerback.

If you look back at Super Bowl 54, the Buccaneers defense is fairly similar to the 49ers’ – a ferocious defensive line, speedy linebackers and an athletic secondary. That kind of defense managed to sack Mahomes four times and force two interceptions last year. That’s the beauty of the former MVP; he can make a critical error and still bounce back on the next drive to score a touchdown.

At odds of +140, it’s just too good to pass up considering all the variables on how Mahomes COULD throw an interception as opposed to why he won’t. Also, it should be noted that in three playoff games, the Bucs have forced Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Taylor Heinicke to throw a combined five INTs.

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