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The Pick Six: Conference Championship Edition

Pick Six Conference Championships Derrick Henry January 16 2020

Welcome to the second-last edition of the Pick Six. As we embark on the final three games of the 2020 NFL playoffs, we’ve got two high-profile matchups with the Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs but the best part is … no New England Patriots.

Not that I’m a Patriots hater by any stretch, but it’s good to see some new blood in the conference championships and have the opportunity to bet on some new teams. That’s why I’m very excited for this week’s Pick Six column because I’ve got some new angles on how to bet these games that I think will make some decent profit going into Super Bowl 54.

So, with that in mind, here are my six favorite picks for the NFL’s conference championship games. I will pick the outcome, total and a touchdown scorer for each matchup.

If you want to see all the TD scorers and betting props I’m on for each game, make sure to follow me on Twitter @GDAWG5000 for all my prop bets and in-game plays.

Here we go!

All lines courtesy of Bovada

Titans Moneyline vs Chiefs (+265)

Another team that has already beaten the Chiefs this season, I think the Titans will win this game outright because of the matchup problem of RB Derrick Henry. King Hank has 96 carries over just his last three games and completely controlled all three games vs the Ravens, Patriots and Texans. Most impressively, all three of those wins came on the road.

Unlike the Texans’ coaching, I trust that Mike Vrabel will not have a total brain fart if the Titans get a lead on the Chiefs and that he will continue to run the ball with the best running back in the NFL. Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones is expected to miss this game, which is a huge blow for KC. I also think one of the underdogs is winning outright this week so the best plan is to just take both teams on the moneyline and hope for the best.

UNDER 53 Titans vs Chiefs (-110)

If I believe the Titans will win this game, the only way they’ll do it is by slowing down the potent Chiefs offense and no team is better equipped to do that than Tennessee. In their last three games, the Titans have held their opponents to 39 points combined. They’ve forced eight turnovers in that stretch and the secondary has been lights-out in the playoffs.

It’s obviously an uphill battle to take an UNDER involving the Chiefs but I think it will be a hard-fought game that won’t be a shootout like the Texans-Chiefs game last week.

Jonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown (+250)

In Tennessee’s last six games, Jonnu Smith has ascended to the role of the Titans’ best pass-catcher and, along with Henry, he’s a true matchup nightmare for the Chiefs linebackers. Smith caught a beautiful touchdown vs the Ravens’ Marlon Humphrey, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the game.

Based on the targets and how the Titans spread the ball around, Smith’s odds should be closer to +175 or +200, so at +250 you’re getting great value. The Chiefs also gave up a touchdown to the Texans’ Darren Fells in the playoff game last week and KC has been below average this season when defending tight ends.

Titans vs Chiefs Game Center

Packers Moneyline vs 49ers (+265)

Look, I remember the game when the Packers got smoked in San Francisco 37-8. It was a tough watch and a complete domination by the 49ers defensive line. In that game, they had five sacks and held QB Aaron Rodgers to 104 yards passing and an ugly 1-for-15 on third down.

But that’s all in the past. I prefer looking at this game with a clean slate because the Packers will watch the film and see where they fell short and figure out better blocking schemes to keep Nick Bosa out of the backfield.

The reality is that the Packers have the best player in A-Aron and I’m not doubting him in what could be the last NFC championship game of his career. Much like my theory for betting on the Titans, I think one of the underdogs wins outright, so bet on both of them and if one hits, you’re up +1.65 units of profit just for picking the outcomes of each game.

UNDER 45.5 Packers vs 49ers (-110)

Much like the Titans-Chiefs game, the only way the Packers win is by controlling the clock and limiting San Francisco’s explosive plays. The 49ers are always up to some trickery with their play-calling and this is a tough UNDER to take given how the Niners can manufacture points, but I still think this is the best way to go.

This will easily be the biggest game of Jimmy Garoppolo’s career and I’m not convinced he will come up big when it matters and if the game is on the line (hence the Packers ML pick).

George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+110)

Out of any player to bet on for touchdown scorers, this one may be my favorite because George Kittle is a matchup nightmare. Yes, I took him last week and he didn’t score but he was so close any time the 49ers were in the red zone vs the Vikings.

When the Niners hosted the Packers earlier this season, Kittle was a beast and had six catches on six targets for 129 yards and a touchdown. His value isn’t the greatest at +110 and if you’re not feeling Kittle, I would recommend Tevin Coleman (+120), who is coming off a two-touchdown day vs the Vikings. He also scored a TD when San Fran hosted Green Bay earlier in the year.

I just prefer Kittle because he’ll be out there for every snap whereas Coleman could easily be replaced by Raheem Mostert or Matt Breida at any time. Also, if the Niners are trailing, they’re likely to abandon the run. Kittle also leads the team in red-zone targets and three of his five TDs were scored at home this season.

Packers vs 49ers Game Center

As mentioned, follow me on Twitter at @GDAWG5000 for more betting analysis and on Sundays for my weekly touchdown scorer prop picks. Happy Betting!