Patriots vs Ravens Odds & Picks Week 16

Mike Vrabel's New England Patriots head to visit John Harbaugh's Baltimore Ravens as 2.5-point underdogs in the Week 16 NFL odds. The Patriots vs Ravens total is set at 48.5 for this crucial AFC clash. After falling to the Bills last week, the Patriots need to continue winning to secure the AFC East title, while Baltimore are fighting for the AFC North and their own playoff lives.

Keep your hands and feet inside the ride, this Patriots vs Ravens Sunday Night Football showdown has all the makings of a classic.

Patriots vs Ravens Odds

Matchup Page: New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens, December 21st, 8:20pm ET

**Patriots vs Ravens Odds**
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
New England Patriots	+2.5 (-105)	+124	Over 48.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens	-2.5 (-115)	-148	Under 48.5 (-110)

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Patriots vs Ravens Picks - Week 16

Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-110)

Heading in Sunday Night Football, the Patriots are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Ravens are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS at home. Harbaugh's men will look to flip the script in Week 16.

Over the past five weeks, the Patriots are fourth in EPA per play and offensive success rate. In that same span - with Lamar Jackson playing in every game - the Ravens are 21st in EPA per play, and 24th in success rate. Those numbers don't lie, despite Baltimore facing a cupcake schedule of defenses, Bengals twice, Steelers and Jets along with the lowly Browns.

Defensively, the Pats gave up 349 yards, including a whopping 168 on the ground in last week's shootout against Buffalo. New England is 30th in rushing EPA surrendered since Week 11, which is an exploitable mismatch for Baltimore's high-powered rushing attack. Which I expect the Ravens to lean into with regularity in this one. Derrick Henry is averaging only 17 carries per game across his last five contests, and Todd Monken would do well to get his star back as many carries as possible against the Patriots vulnerable defense. All those runs will lead to a ton of time coming off the clock in this one.

Similarly, Josh McDaniel's is leaning more and more on the Patriots ground game the last few weeks. Drake Maye handed off the football 21 times against Buffalo and threw only 23 passes. In the previous week's contest against the Giants, New England gave their backs 23 carries. Leading me to believe the Pats want to continue to lessen the load on Maye's shoulders, and keep him healthy for the playoffs. In fact, McDaniel's has put forth a run-first approach this year, with New England rushing the football on 47% of snaps (seventh-highest in the NFL). Pair that with the Ravens, who run of 49% of snaps (3rd) and we have the perfect recipe for another primetime UNDER.

Keep in mind, six of New England's last eight games have gone OVER the total, and the OVER is 5-0 in each of the last five Patriots vs Ravens meetings in Baltimore. The offensive firepower and gravity of "Action Jackson" and Drake Maye will have bettors flocking to the OVER, which is why we're making the contrarian play. The total of 48.5 is simply too high for this almost playoff atmosphere. Five of the last six matchups in this series have gone OVER, but those totals averaged just 45. I'm rolling with the UNDER on Sunday Night Football.

Patriots vs Ravens Props - Week 16

Packers vs Bears props for Week 16 have yet to be released, so be sure to check back later in the week.

Patriots vs Ravens Betting Trends - Week 16

New England is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games
Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 home games against New England