The beauty of the brutality of football and the NFL is the comeback story. A player could be all but forgotten after a devastating injury or poor performance before rising up from the ashes like a phoenix and reclaiming his position of dominance the next season.
And when that happens, that player sometimes wins the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. It may not matter a whole lot to the players involved, but it matters to us!
That’s why the best football betting sites have released NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds for bettors to wager on.
This can be a fun betting prop because you’re rooting for something good to happen to a player who shows perseverance in overcoming adversity. If you’re unsure of how to bet on something like this, make sure to read up on Odds Shark’s guide of How To Bet on Football.
For now, here’s a look at the full list of odds to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year:
NFL Comeback Player Of The Year Odds
|Will Fuller V||+5000|
Odds as of August 12 at Bodog
NFL Comeback POY Odds: The Favorites
Last season, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was a logical choice for the award after having a great season following a year missed due to injury. Burrow and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott were the two favorites in NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds through most of the season.
Almost all of the players at the top of this year’s list of Comeback Player of the Year odds suffered major injuries last season and are trying to recapture their top form.
Derrick Henry (+350)
When it comes to NFL season-long props and odds, we highly recommend shopping around at different sportsbooks for the best odds. A couple of months ago, you could have had Derrick Henry at +900, but his number has dropped across the board, and with good reason.
Henry has been a monster since he entered the league but separated himself in 2019 as a truly dominant force in the backfield.
He followed a campaign of 1,500-plus yards and 16 touchdowns in 2019 with a whopping 2,000-plus rushing yards and 17 touchdowns in 2020 en route to an Offensive Player of the Year award before getting hurt about halfway through last season.
Henry’s 2021 season was cut short by a foot injury, but he still managed 937 yards in just eight games. His yardage total somehow still ended up ninth in the league.
It may be unfair to expect Henry to have a season like 2020 again. But if he stays healthy, there’s no reason he can’t approach 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns again. That should put him squarely in the conversation for CPOY. It’s not +900, but +350 could be as good as we’re going to get from here on.
Jameis Winston (+500)
Winston started out well in his first year with the New Orleans Saints last year, posting a 5-2 record with 14 passing touchdowns and just three interceptions before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 7.
This season, he returns to the field with a new coach and some new weapons to work with, theoretically setting him up for a big rebound season.
It could happen. But for now we don’t love the value at +500 because there are several better football players with more attractive odds behind Winston on this list who are in similar positions to succeed.
Other Players To Consider For Comeback POY
Looking back at the AP Comeback Player of the Year winners since 2010, all but one had two things in common: they were returning from injury and their teams made the playoffs.
With that in mind, our best bets:
Lamar Jackson (+2000)
Ten of the last 15 winners of the NFL CPOY have been quarterbacks, including each of the last four. It’s a good bet that the most prominent and important position be awarded this honor again, and we think Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has about as good a case as anyone.
Jackson is a former MVP, so we know he has the skills. He is also returning from injury after missing five games last season and having a down year relative to his previous two.
The “downside” for Jackson, as morbid as it may seem, is his injury and redemption story might not be as severe as some of the other candidates. Narrative matters a lot when it comes to this award, and missing only five games plus having a so-so year might not have been a valley deep enough to make Jackson’s potential peak impressive enough.
Still, he is a legitimate candidate and has great odds at +2000. We’re expecting a bounce-back year for the Ravens and Jackson.
Best Bet: Saquon Barkley (+1200)
If there’s a player in the league who needs a bounce-back season badly, it’s Giants running back Saquon Barkley. After a standout rookie season when he had more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and a solid second year, Barkley lost almost all of 2020 to injury and then battled injuries last year while managing just 593 rushing yards and four total TDs.
There is no arguing that he is one of the league’s most dynamic talents; the questions for him have been health- and consistency-related.
But this year looks to be a turnaround year for the Giants organization as a whole with a new coaching staff, an influx of talent and some much-needed stability at some key positions.
If Barkley can stay healthy behind a new and improved Giants O-line, he could be in line for another huge statistical year.
He was a great bet at +4000 in NFL Comeback Player of the Years odds a couple of months ago, but we still like him at +1200.
Understanding NFL Comeback Player Of The Year Odds
At any sportsbook, you’ll see prop odds laid out like this:
Dak Prescott +200
Joe Burrow +650
Christian McCaffrey +700
Unlike a moneyline bet where favorites are designated with the minus sign (-), in this case, the player with the lowest odds is the favorite. Here, it’s Dak Prescott.
Let’s say you’re loving Christian McCaffrey at +700. If you were to lay down $100 on him, you’d get a payout of $800 – your $100 is returned along with your winnings of $700. On the other hand, if you believe that Dak Prescott is going to have a stellar season, that same $100 on him would give you a payout of $300 – you get your original money back coupled with your prize of $200.
To find out how much you’d win based on what you bet, check out our Odds Calculator.
What Is A Prop Bet?
To wager on NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds, you would make a prop bet. This is a bet on the occurrence or non-occurrence of team or player milestones that may not directly affect the outcome of a certain football game.
Short for proposition, this kind of bet can be made as soon as the odds are released. If you see action you like, it’s best to jump on those odds early. As more games unfold, a player’s odds will shift to reflect their performance, whether it’s good or bad.
Doc's Picks Service
Need more winning picks? Get $60 worth of premium member picks from Doc’s Sports – a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.