Primetime Betting Report NFL

Primetime Betting Report: Primetime UNDERs Are NFL's Best Bet

Primetime football games just mean more.

For the NFL's Thursday, Monday, and Sunday Night Football games, there are more fans, brighter lights, and bigger television spectacles. So, who rises to the occasion?

Here are the best coaches and quarterbacks in primetime games, as well as some overall NFL primetime betting trends to know:

General NFL Primetime Game Betting Trends

Primetime Game Trends (Last 5 Years)
Underdogs SU82-157 SU (34.3%)-$1051.22
Underdogs ATS130-106-3 ATS (55.1%)+$1347.72
UNDERs146-89-4 (62.1%)+$4372.86

If you're looking for some blind bets for primetime games, you've got options. Underdogs against the spread have been a solid play this season, bringing in almost 11 units of profit. But there's an even bigger fish to target on your TNF, MNF, and SNF wagers:

You Have To Bet Primetime UNDERs 

The NFL's hottest betting trend in 2023, and dating back a few years, has been primetime UNDERs. Going below the point total has hit at an absurd 62.5% clip over the last five seasons and so far in 2023, it's hit in 27 of 36 Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night games.

It seems almost inexplicable how every team forgets how to score during these primetime affairs. Prior to a rare high-scoring affair in Week 13 (Cowboys 41 - Seahawks 35) the average total score in Thursday Night Football games since Week 6 has been just 40.5 points. 

  • Week 13: DAL 41 - SEA 35
  • Week 12: Thanksgiving
  • Week 11: BAL 34 - CIN 20
  • Week 10: CHI 16 - CAR 13
  • Week 9: PIT 20 - TEN 16
  • Week 8: BUF 24 - TB 18
  • Week 7: JAX 31 - NO 24
  • Week 6: KC 19 - DEN 8

Before Seattle and Dallas ran up the score last week, there were just two teams in the last two months that scored over 24 points in a TNF game (not counting the Thanksgiving slate of games), and seven of the 14 squads have scored 20 or fewer. I'm not sure if it's dark skies or the weird scheduling of primetime games, but whatever it is makes totals go UNDER.

Top NFL Coach In Primetime Games

NFL Coaching Spread Trends - Primetime Games (Last 5 Years)
NFL Coach Primetime ATS RecordProfit
Matt LaFleur17-8 (66.7%)+$770.16
Sean McVay12-7-1 (63.2%)+$392.43
Nick Sirianni 7-3-1 (70.0%)+$343.02

Matt LaFleur needs a new nickname. 'Big Game' Matt has been easily the NFL's best coach in primetime games over the last five seasons. The Packers under LaFleur have covered the spread in 17 primetime contests across those years with almost four units more profit than any other coach.

Funnily enough, the now-former Panthers coach Frank Reich was up there with these primetime savants before he was fired this season. In his time with Carolina and Indy, Reich went 8-1-1 against the spread in primetime affairs, for a +6.3 unit profit. If he somehow finds a new gig, back Reich for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games.

Back Josh Allen Under The Bright Lights

NFL QB Data - Primetime Games (Last 5 Years)
NFL QB Passing TDs/GamePassing Yards/GameCompletion %
Josh Allen2.4256.767%
Aaron Rodgers2.3237.367%
Patrick Mahomes2.0275.666%

I think it's kind of surprising to see Josh Allen up here because he's certainly had some big-game gaffs before. In my mind, Allen is a great regular-season QB who has had some untimely turnovers during the Bills' primetime and playoff games. But, allegedly he's the best around in those big spots!?

Also worth noting, the currently-injured Aaron Rodgers is great in primetime, as well. Rodgers is the best active QB when it comes to covering the spread in primetime games. The now New York Jet is 17-6 in primetime games over the last five years, worth +9.7 units in profit. If he comes back for some late-season Jets primetime games, get on the ARod bandwagon.

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